Your Daily Doom Antidote: Peter Ingemi’s “DaTechGuy” breakdown on how corrupt media cooks polls to help Obama
I think this wins as the very best and most comprehensive takedown of the corrupt media’s poll-cooking I’ve yet seen, written for the DaTechGuy site by Peter Ingemi (seriously, read it all and please support this guy with a hit to his tip jar if you can because he’s earned it by doing all the analytical work on this).
I’ve read this piece three times now and I get something new from it each time. I’ve also taken a stack of notes on the data he’s compiled and have spent the last two hours trying to find fault with any of it — and I can’t.
There’s a lot of tables, stretching back to 2004, but Ingemi’s thesis is that Democrats lose elections based on the party affiliation numbers, which are critical to accurate polling. For Democrats to win nationally in a presidential race (or sweep Congress) they need to have around 6.9% higher party affiliation than Republicans. If Republicans have even a slight party identification advantage or even carry a minuscule deficit, then Democrats still lose. Currently, Republicans stand at around 3% in party affiliation advantage — but meanwhile the corrupt media is running polls that deliberately oversample Democrats sometimes as much as 13% (!!!).
This is how the corrupt media cooks the books to churn out propaganda that “Romney is losing! Surrender, conservatives! Obama is inevitable!”. Those lies are then picked up by conservative websites hungry for web traffic and morphed into “Doom Reports!” that panic, demoralize, and depress Republican voters. This is all very much intentional on the part of the corrupt media, which pretty much knows how to play conservatives like fiddles.
If you are one of the people who race around to call your friends, text them, email, Tweet, or leave Eeyore-like comments on websites about polls you really need to read Ingemi’s definitive take on this issue. And when I say read it, I mean read it every night as a bedtime story to yourself, read it on the train in the way into work the next day, read it at lunchtime, read it on the way home from work, and read it before you power up your computer to do anything.
There are many things in this life that we cannot accomplish which are out of our hands, but we actually can eliminate the Eeyore problem in conservative ranks once and for all by taking a really hard line with this stuff. We don’t allow Eeyore comments on HillBuzz for that reason. I wish other sites out there would zap Eeyores too. The hard part of it is that so many Eeyores also happen to be very nice people otherwise, and some of them don’t even realize they are even being Eeyores. It’s kind of like having a really contagious flu and just mildly thinking you might have an allergy or something…you don’t even realize you are coughing and sneezing and spreading the virus to others, but you are. If you’re someone who sees the media pushing a poll that “Obama is winning! Romney is doomed!” and you aren’t yet aware that the corrupt media is deliberately lying to you and that this is just misinformation meant to demoralize Romney voters, then you need to start seeing this. Maybe Ingemi’s post will help you (hint: read it again).
A big part of this is that a lot of people see the Internet as a place to vent, so they go online to find places to leave comments expressing their feelings. They have a need to do this, and that need is purely focused on themselves in the moment. I know it’s hard, but it’s smarter to move away from this kind of thing and start thinking of your personal role regarding the Internet as being someone who reminds other people that writing negative, demoralizing, and depressing things online does no one any good. If you really feel these negative and depressing things, tell them to your cats and dogs or buy a plant and say all of this to an unfortunate fern. But don’t post “the sky is falling!” panic attacks on conservative sites and contribute to the memes the Left initiates saying “Romney’s lost! Obama is inevitable!”.
Romney is actually winning. The only way he loses is if the Eeyores succeed in depressing Republican turnout and convincing “independents” that Romney won’t win. You need to understand that many independents read conservative sites. If they see you posting negative things, bemoaning the “we’re doomed!” variations out there, and generally acting like Obama will win…then independents will vote for the person they think will put them on the winning side.
Every time an Eeyore writes something negative somewhere and follows the corrupt media’s talking points to insist Obama will win, we run the risk of an independent reading that and deciding “I guess I have to vote for Obama then because I want to be with the winner in November”. How bad would you feel if something you did “because you needed to vent one day” ends up contributing to snatching defeat from the jaws of victory?
Think about it. And read Ingemi’s analysis.
Then stop being an Eeyore if you are one.
Stop it already.
You are better, smarter, and a far more strategic thinker than that.
UPDATE: Another great find today, that should make a good “Doom Antidote” for those who need it: UnskewedPolls.com
Before I posted this link, I spent an hour checked to make sure it was accurate and I had a few friends peer-review it as well. It’s spot-on and helps you see that the corrupt media is lying out of every possible orifice when it comes to the presidential race. I repeat: the only way Romney loses is if you sit home, fall victim to Eeyores, or become Eeyores yourself.
© 2012, Kevin DuJan. All rights reserved.
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