Understanding Unskewedpolls.com — how they are factoring the media bias out of the current polling #MittRomney @MittRomney
[ Click above to embiggen: Screengrab of UnskewedPolls.com taken 9/23/2012 ]
If you haven’t checked it out, please visit UnskewedPolls.com — I’ll wait for you to do that and come back. Take your time: I’ve got a Blueberry Coke and the latest GLOBE magazine and can just chill until you’re done (pages 34-35 are particularly interesting. Cough. Hint. October 1st, 2012 issue on newsstands now with Camilla and Kate on the cover).
Okay, so this website factors out the deliberate skewing that the Left is inserting in all the current national polls to give Barack Obama a lead over Mitt Romney when in reality Obama is trailing Romney and losing the election.
The corrupt, vintage media is running this propaganda for three reasons:
* showing Obama in the lead causes a “bandwagon effect” where low-information voters think to themselves “Obama’s winning, and I like betting on winners, so I’ll vote for him too, I guess since the tee-vee told me I needed to”
* Eeyores in conservative ranks are a skittish, worrisome lot by nature and will seize on any poll with Obama in the lead to collapse onto the ground in tears, screaming “We’re DOOOOOOMED!” because they are gluttons for attention
* the Legion of Gloom (that band of Fifth Column writers at conservative sites and in the media) just loves running these polls with headlines like “Can Romney Still Win?” because Eeyores eat that garbage up like it’s McRib sandwiches, three for $5, and this succeeds in Eeyore-breeding (the process of creating new Eeyores by running nonstop poll-driven headlines that “Romney is losing! Doom is coming!”).
I seriously don’t know what the problem is at a lot of conservative sites, but these people all need to stop helping the Left in its psy-ops war against the country. If you are a regular reader of HotAir.com for instance (or, even better, a paid subscriber to its parent company at TownHall) you really need to start complaining to management about the writer they have called “Allahpundit”. Whoever this person is, he (I assume) has to be Fifth Column because he plasters that site with nonstop Legion of Gloom psy-ops designed to demoralize and depress the conservatives that read there.
There should be no conservative writing articles that are entitled anything remotely in the realm of:
* Can Romney Still Win?
* Will Romney Overcome?
* Does Romney Need A Shakeup?
* Is Romney Losing?
Honestly. From today forward, when I see any jackass out there who is supposedly a conservative write this garbage I am going to call that person out publicly and brutally for their extreme stupidity. None of you have ever seen me truly pissed off yet. I have always constrained myself on this site. I have never truly gone for anyone’s jugular…yet. But I am close to doing that to Allahpundit at HotAir and I am almost as close to doing it to Erik Erikson at RedState. And when it happens, I think my eyes will go dead and black and I will take a seat in the center of a hurricane with lightning sparking from my fingers as I type and I will focus pure rage at whomever is claiming to be a conservative while helping the Left by pumping needlessly negative headlines into the campaign narrative to senselessly depress Republican volunteers, donors, and voter turnout.
I am tired of being Mr. Nice Guy to these people and politely suggesting they adjust their attitude and start wearing big boy pants. It is about to get all kinds of real up in here if I keep seeing conservative writers foolishly taking punches at Mitt Romney when it is actually Barack Obama who is losing this race. You wouldn’t know it from watching the corrupt, vintage media because those people deliberately cover for Obama and are his propaganda agents.
Do you ever see headlines like this on TV or any of the Left’s sites?
* Can Obama still win? Considering he is polling far less than 50% in accurate samples that reflect current voter affiliation in this country, this is the question everyone should be asking right now…is there any way in Hell for Obama to win this, even with massive voter fraud? I think the answer to that is no. Too bad the jackasses on conservative sites fail to ask this question and instead love running “Can Romney still win?” instead.
* Will Obama Overcome? No, he won’t. Even here in Illinois, Obama’s ground game is week, he’s not paying out street money to thugs because he doesn’t have the funds available, and Democrats find nothing inspiring or motivational about his campaign. He will not overcome, and that should be a giant story flashing across Times Square. But it’s not. That’s because the corrupt vintage media will never, ever give Obama bad PR.
* Does Obama Need A Shakeup? Yes, but it’s too late for that. Do you know that Obama staffers are sending out resumes for their next jobs, post-White House? David Axelrod long ago moved on to other things here in Chicago. He is minimally focused on Obama’s re-election campaign because he knows Obama won’t win. Normally, these guys leave in the last two years of an administration…and if they think their boss is assured a second term, they start jumping ship after the last midterm of that guy’s presidency. Axelrod left Obama after the 2010 midterms. He did not think he had until 2014 in the White House. THIS SHOULD TELL YOU SOMETHING.
* Is Obama Losing? Hell to the Yes. His campaign sends out 5 or 6 emails a day begging for money. Not “asking”. BEGGING. I’ve never seen anything so desperate. I am surprised he has not dragged Sally Struthers out of her house of clutter and junk (she was recently outed as a major hoarder) to make commercials for him begging for money like those old “Feed the Children” spots in the 80s where she’d lay down guilt like it was molasses. Michelle Obama sent emails out asking people to skip their family’s dinners and donate the money to the campaign. Obama asked people to sell their things at yard sales or on Craigslist and give him the money. Sometimes the emails I get from Joe Biden asking me to have dinner with him seem so creepy I want to report him as a romantic stalker. It’s all SO STRANGE and so desperate.
But if you click on HotAir, you’d never know any of this because the links they feature at the top in their news feed are all about how Mitt Romney’s campaign is terrible and how he’s going to lose.
I swear to you, I am now at the point where I would take a bullet for Mitt and have come to love this man. I am surprised at that as you might be, considering I spent the years 2008-2012 mocking him and working against his nomination. But seeing these jackasses in the Legion of Gloom foolishly pummel him on a regular basis just BOILS MY BLOOD. I know these clowns are doing a lot of this for headlines and that its the content the Eeyores want to read, but can you imagine if the British papers had done this during WWII after every air raid? Can you imagine if there was a nonstop Fifth Column effort in London to declare “We’re doomed!” or “Can we still win?”. My history teacher told me that anyone doing that back then would have been personally arrested by Winston Churchill and kept in a cellar underground until the war was over. When you are under siege, YOU DO NOT allow Eeyores a soapbox and you do not breed more Eeyores with headlines declaring DOOOOM!.
Mitt Romney is an honorable man. And, boy, does he love his wife Anne. Did you see the two of them when her plane landed safely and he met her on the tarmac after a scare with fire and smoke in the cabin? He grabbed ahold of her, and she held onto him, and it was love like I’ve only seen in movies. I ached for him in that moment because the guy had really been scared his wife might die in a plane crash while she was helping him win an election. He would have been heartbroken. I easily related to Mitt like I never have before because I feel this way for my boyfriend Justin and worry about him getting hurt or having a car wreck whenever he makes the trip down to Arkansas to see his parents. When he gets back, I meet him at the car like Mitt met Anne on that tarmac and I am just so thrilled to see him in one piece and safe.
Great Merciful Zeus and Sweet Whitney Houston I am relating to the Romneys and loving them and I never believed it would happen but the more I learn about these people the more I want them in the White House and the more I am willing to take up a heavy cudgel and play Whack-a-Mole with whatever jackasses in the Legion of Gloom are breeding Eeyores today.
Few out there will call these people on their garbage because everyone wants to get a paid writing job at Daily Caller or TownHall or Weekly Standard someday…so few on conservative sites want to “burn bridges” by aiming flame throwers at the Eeyore-breeders.
Screw that.
I chafe at being edited and censored for publication. My fervent hope is that I can one day in the next few years retire from all of this political stuff and go back to my old life and live quietly somewhere and have less stress in my day-to-day world. I only do this because if I don’t put this content out every day, no one else will. And the jackasses in the Legion of Gloom will keep getting away with Eeyore breeding…and most of the Eeyores out there won’t even realize they are even Eeyores because few will tell them that. Everyone is afraid of alienating people and driving down site numbers or pissing people off by calling the really depressing ones “Eeyores” to begin with.
Double screw that.
Folks, the only way Barack Obama wins this is if we do nothing to draw attention to the fact of just how much the corrupt, vintage media is lying on his behalf…and how timid and quisling conservative writers are to either not speak out about this or to go along with it and assist this propaganda by treating the media’s “reporting” as actual, real, “news”.
We really need to be honey badgers through November 6th and root out and devour the snakes in our own ranks.
I think Unskewedpolls.com gives us some great ammunition for repeatedly excoriating any conservative writer who posts Doom Reports online quoting deliberately skewed, pro-Obama polls.
For those who are really great with math and really understand what Unskewedpolls.com does…can you chime in below in comments and let us know exactly how these charts are made and what all the columns are doing? This is some knowledge I lack currently, but really need to have to hit as hard as possible at the “Is Romney Losing?” false-narrative that the Left is pushing and the Legion of Gloom is enabling.
© 2012, Kevin DuJan. All rights reserved.
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Letters like skipping dinners for the Prez. There are non-stop ads running on NickAtNite asking for a vote for Preezy. However, I think it’s funny that NickAtNite runs an ad series praising the “Family Table”. I suppose NickAtNite wants dinner repartee to include conversation about how the Knucklehead in Chief is the savior of the country.
Great post Kevin!
Adding to your first reason – Early Voting.
Some states have already started early voting with more on the way. Uninformed people see all of these skewed polls, think they are fact, and then follow the points in the first reason you stated.
You are right! Obama is really pushing hard for “early voting”. Why do we have that in the first place?? So, if on October 30th we all find out something horrible about Obama that we don’t already know and that the media actually makes any comment on, the votes for him from his base are already cast. I can’t help but feel defeat just because of stuff like this — early voting. Sure, vote before the debates, even!
Except for military members voting early in Ohio. Team Obama is attempting to stop this from happening.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-18/obama-campaign-tells-court-ohio-early-vote-laws-are-burdensome.html
Thank you, Kevin! I just discovered your site a couple of days ago, thanks to a commenter on Hot Air directing people your way, after yet another depressing post from Allahpundit. I have been thinking for a long time that Obama can’t possibly win again, since there are so many people who voted for him the last time who won’t do so again, including my sister who finally woke up and cancelled her NYT subscription and is now totally on our side. I live in deep blue Brookline, MA, and my Romney yard sign stands out like a sore thumb, but it hasn’t been stolen yet, and I haven’t seen a single Obama yard sign anywhere. Last time they were everywhere, and almost every other car had an Obama bumper sticker. There are some of those this time, but nowhere near as many. The other day I saw a Mitt bumper sticker on the car of the guy parking in front of me when we were going in to pick up our kids at school, and he was a black guy. He said his car hadn’t been keyed yet, so I put my Mitt sticker on my car that day. I am so sick of all the so-called conservatives helping the leftist media with their Romney bashing. I feel like I’m living in the twilight zone sometimes, especially this past couple of weeks, when the mideast exploded, unions in Chicago revealed their outrageous democrat supported greed, the fed started QE3, the US credit rating got downgraded again, and these media scum were still spinning it that Romney was having a bad week because of two things he said that were totally reasonable and true. What the hell is going on?! You are the only person I’ve seen giving these idiots the beat down they so desperately deserve. Thank you, thank you, thank you!!!!!
Isn’t it a shame that we really DO think that some Lib will key or otherwise damage our vehicle if we put a Romney sticker on it? My husband and I both have taken the chance, anyway, but it does occur to you. My sister had her brand new car bashed in and tires flattened when she put a Bush sticker on it during that election. The “tolerant left” at work, as usual.We live in the blue state of NJ. It’s sad that we feel our votes won’t matter in the end, even though we will cast our votes with all the pride we can possibly feel.
every vote counts.
I just watched the gang bang they call meet the press. It’s only worth watching to see bay Buchanan make joe scarborough have to list his alleged conservative creds. Just because you put on a pair of new thick dark framed glasses doesn’t a conservative make, joe. Maybe juxtaposed against mika he thinks he’s a conservative but he doesn’t even resemble a RINO.
“Bay Buchanan Challenges Joe Scarborough’s Conservatism Right To His Face”
http://newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-sheppard/2012/09/23/bay-buchanan-challenges-joe-scarboroughs-conservatism-right-his-face
I see the skewed polls as a plus for the Romney camp. It will mobilize voters who fear an Obama re-election and get out and vote for Romney.
Flipped through the Globe last night at the supermarket.. I saw that you were a source in there.
I agree with everything you’re saying, but I’m not sure about that blueberry Coke!
Excellent post, Kevin. I like the charts a LOT. Sometimes it seems like no matter how many facts we calmly quote, many people tune them out for some bizarro reason. But give them something they can SEE, and voila, the rusted cogs begin to turn once again and these people begin to actually THINK about stuff. Maybe it’s the result of a whole generation being raisd on video games and soundbytes, I don’t know.
As for propaganda, I don’t think I’ve ever seen a better analysis. In my own dealings with people, I run into a LOT of Reason #2. In fact, prior to Lucianne threatening me with banning, I posted more than once there that doom-and-gloomers do what they do because it releases endorphins into their brains. Kids used to go to the all-day Creature Features at the local movie theaters in the old days for much the same reason — because they LIKED being scared. Hell, they probably became the very same Eeyores we see today. Doom-and-glooming releases endorphins, which makes them feel good. It gets them off, in a manner of speaking. It also brings them lots of attention, as you so eloquently stated in Propaganda Reason #2.
I have a good friend who is a borderline Eeyore. She’s smart, funny, a conservative, and absolutely loyal to her friends and co-workers. However, even after the magnificent speeches at the RNC (which she said were some of the best she’s ever seen), here she comes with “But I’m so scared for our country . . .” She does this every time I see her, no matter how many times I lay out the facts and reassure her that her fears are unfounded. I’m going to send her the link to this article, because she’s a ;visual person and responds better to something she can see.
Will also make a mental note to never piss you off, Kevin. Have a feeling you can be a one-person nuclear arsenal if something gets your dander up.
Reading this post was like a long cool drink of water on a hot day.
DRUDGE linked a story quoting Messina (O Campaign) who warned dems to disregard ‘future polling’ as the campaign is really ‘ahead in the battleground states’ so that national polling doesn’t matter. Here’s what the Romney campaign responded:
“Governor Romney is seeing strong support across all the battleground states, including those President Obama won with close to double digit margins or more. We’ve had more people come out to knock on doors and make phone calls in support of Governor Romney because they understand we can’t afford four more years of policies that increase our debt, don’t create jobs, and have people working more for less. It’s why we now see states like Wisconsin, which Republicans haven’t won since 1984, now in play.”
And I’ll add anecdotes, which are just my take on the local front. NC is considered gone for Obama. He’s still advertising here, but no campaign stops. He and Biden were in NC every fifteen minutes in 08, as were Palin and McCain. The closest campaign stops R/R are in VA. And where in VA? Nearer to DC, the blue strongholds. Want something far more reliable to indicate the state of the race – look at where they are campaigning.
On that topic, what the hell is wrong with Ohio? (Or is that Oiho? LOL) This week campaign stops were CO, PA, VA, FL, OH.
Does show a close race, but Romney winning it based on that. This comment by Messina is proof that they wont be able to prop him up forever, and that the preference cascade has begun.
Thank you Kevin
I love reading your posts. They make me laugh and cry at the same time. This one was AWESOME!!. I can’t even watch much tv at night anymore. They just piss me off so much with all the O ads. My cats have learned a lot of new words that I can’t say here. Good thing they can’t talk. LOL.
I work with some seriously deluded folks. One is telling me that if Romney wins he will remove the interest deduction for your home from the tax returns and will also implement the 4% tax on the sale of your home. I told him that it was Obama who will do that to pay for the fiasco called healthcare. He said that was the Repubicans. There is no hope for this guy. I had to walk away before I said something unrepeatable. I live in WA state and I have not seen to many O bumper stickers here this time around. Maybe there is still some hope for my seriously blue state. I hope to God that is true.
I remember Dewey. The picture of President Truman holding up the Chicago newspaper with the DEWEY WINS headline is classic. I loved President Truman and just read David McCullough’s TRUMAN. It really told what an awful time it was and President Truman did what he had to do. My hero.
The Washington Examiner
http://washingtonexaminer.com/obama
Watching Fox this am, purposely to see what a viewer that only get a chance to catch morning news on a weekend sees and hears. It was disgraceful the way every program lead with how it’s been a bad week for Romney! They are following the script dictated by MSM and I don’t think they know they are being duped.
I think it’s been a great week for Romney/Ryan, Romney was right on with his assessment of what happened in the ME. The dumbocrats tried to lead us astray in the face of common sense. The MSM criticized Romney for jumping the gun, but he is ultimately the correct critic!!!! Obama on the other hand isn’t just wrong but he is wrong on purpose which makes him a LIAR! Do you hear the MSM or Fox pointing it out for what it really means?
Then there’s the issue of the illegal taping of Romney’s fund raiser. What he was taped saying is true! Because of Obama, there are 47% of people on the dole. Psychologically Romney is shrewd, if someone is in that 47% that doesn’t want to be there, and I’m sure there are many, they will mentally say, ‘Romney is the only hope for me to not be considered to belong to this group’ and will vote for him. Very few in that 47% are proud to be there, and if they feel they have to remain there, they will want to vote for Romney so other people can have good income! The last thing they would want is for all the paying people to join them because that would be sure failure of the system! So all but the diehards in that group should vote for Romney!
Omnivision’s questions to Obama really put him on the spot and most of his answers were lies.
I think it’s been a bad week for Obama not Romney. It’s like Fox is writing for Saturday Night Live!
All the talking heads are telling Romney what to talk about, but as soon as he divulges the hint of a plan, it give the LIARS ammo to tell the people how Obama has done that ploy, and it’s all LIES and no one calls Obama on the Lie! His lying commercials here in Florida go completely unchallanged.
I heard about a good bumper sticker, “3.5 years of Obama, we need R&R”
ignore the Obamedia. they lie.
Fox has changed. I think it changed after the scandal in the UK on phones….then DOJ came out with a comment that they might need to start looking into operations over here.
SOOO, I don’t watch Fox like I did in the 2008 election. I now get most of my information online, and compare information from many sites to make sure I am hearing the truth. Did you ever believe TRUTH would be so hard to ferret out??
Here in Ohio, There are No Obama signs except in front of the Union Halls. Even in the blue parts of the states such as Cleveland, Columbus & Cincinnati, there are few if any signs. College campuses same thing few if any signs. In the suburban & rural parts of the state , NONE. Personally, i think his approval rating in Ohio is about 40%. All the commercials Team Obama & MSM spin have been running in this state are just a waste of money. Voters in this state voted down Obamacare by 2 to 1 margin last November. .Why would they turn around & reelect him. As far as, the debates probably won’t matter in the end. Romney will win Ohio
Is going to be interesting to see him without his teleprompter, that’s for sure!!
I agree, ayelean. I think it’s been a disasterous week for Obama! Talk about campaign disarray; that O (as in Zero) Administration is in some serious trouble….Nobody can get their stories straight. We’ve been getting all kinds of ridiculous conflicting messages from the Obama people – sometimes even from the same person – on what happened in Libya. There sure is no unity in policy there. In fact, it sounds like there’s a war going on within the ranks on how to handle that fiasco and….where is Obama – the great leader in all this? He’s on David Letterman, hanging out with Jay-Z and Beyonce? Really? It’s almost too surreal to be true, but true it is.
With all the conflicting statements and bizarre explanations you’d think they’re all in need of some serious psychotropic meds! Or maybe they should just step aside and let the grown-ups handle this? Ooops. Forgot. There are no grown-ups in that big white house on Pennsylvania Ave. Susan Rice surely needs a reality check or maybe a brain transplant because clearly hers is not functioning. How she could get on national TV and make those bold-faced lying statements is beyond me. By the way, where is she lately? How come she wasn’t being quizzed on all the morning talk shows this week about her loco statements? And Jay Carney? I feel sorry for that man. How he can look himself in the mirror is beyond me. What a fool he’s making of himself.
Jorge Ramos of Univision TV’s interview with Obama was outstanding! He’s a rare gem in today’s media. He asked the hard questions and held Obama’s feet to the fire. I really admire him for asking the questions and showing he actually has a functioning brain as well as a spine! The guy was terrific. Too bad the same can’t be said for all the bloviating, pontificating, self-righteous lazy slobs in the pathetic lamestream media. I think they’re way past their expiration date….time to retire Tingles Matthews, Andrea Mitchell, Wolf Blitzer, Candy Crowley, Gloria Berger, etc., etc., etc. And Mika B from MSNBC’s “Morning Joe”….Can’t that horrid woman get her own reality show a la Kardashians or something or maybe a place on the View? The thing she does best on Morning Joe is make snide faces in the background. I guess to the left, that shows how intelligent and cool you are. And I have to say: I’m really impressed by how cool and how platinum her hairstyles are.
I also really agree with you, Aye, on the 47% That’s what I thought from the very beginning when I first heard that outtake from the video. What Romney said is true. You don’t have to be a rocket scientist to see that.
If the best the left could do is try to blow up the significance of those comments Romney about the 47% made a couple of years ago, they’re in big trouble.
I just can’t take much more of this. It makes my blood boil beyond belief!
Well, that’s my rant for today.
Thanks Kevin. I sent this to every single “reporter” I am email for. Not one damn one of them responded back, I guess they’re too busy working with obama’s campaign to see how better to lie to people.
Just wanted to share this article with everyone, the pictures of Obama are priceless…. (found it on Drudge)
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2207301/Is-deficits-hiding-Obama-whips-massive-wad-cash-pay-sausages-deli.html
Thank you for all the great work Kevin!
Kevin, I appreciate you so much. Again, you just hit the nail on the head. These conservative writers/pundits are doing great harm to Mitt Romney. They’re not even following the basic Marketing 101 tips (and I’m right now taking a college class on Marketing 101). We should always talk positively of Romney/Ryan. I just found out this week that my general manager and the president of the company I work for are conservative. I told my general manager how I worked with Obama at the Davis, Miner, et al. law firm (which I generally don’t talk about to just keep politics out of the office atmosphere). First thing out of the general manager’s mouth was that Obama is all about getting more power, and 2nd thing was that she hopes Romney wins but he keeps saying the wrong thing. I told her how all the unskewed polls are showing him ahead, that all the polls are skewed because they’re oversampling democrats. I’m just trying to keep my own morale up for this election and don’t need any of these Eeyore’s moaning and whining about how Romney is doing poorly. I think he’s doing wonderfully for all he’s been hit with in the media. We saw this year clearly how the media is completely a propagandist tool for Obama so we all need to fight that with positive words and the real story of the election! Thanks again – your site always cheers me up1
Kevin, there’s an example on the Unskewed Poll website of their methodology of ‘unskewing’ a poll. Apparenly they use Rasmussan as the basis for their party ID breakdown (35.4 R, 34.0 D, 30.5 I). look on the left side of the website and you’ll see the link for the example.
Kevin…. did you see this picture from the OH rally R/R had today…
of course no Barry-MSM will show it…
https://twitter.com/DannyLeeCTR/status/249921271373107200/photo/1/large
Kevin, thanks so much for all you do!
I’m a misplaced Ohioan, living in KY …on my way to the Dr., I saw lots of Romney signs, saw one Obama sign today…There really aren’t too many signs out right now though.
The only thing I worry about is that the cheats, ACORN types and union thugs will commit massive fraud on election day!
That worries me a lot!
Hi, Kevin! I got lost in the site switch and just now (I hope) can log on.
Very good article. I have been fighting Bill Kristol since 2000, because he is ALWAYS doing stuff like this. He did it to Bush and hooked onto McCain when he couldn’t convince Powell to run.
Eric Erickson is full of it. He thinks he is a big expert and as far as I know he gets his clout from being a house conservative for CNN.
I don’t ever go to Hot Air because they are known for their handwringing and I don’t need to read it.
Excellent article, and you are 100% correct! Thanks for writing it. It is being passed around and linked quite a bit, which is good.
Kevin, to prove the point you are making about polls, I looked up the NJ Governor’s poll from 2009. The Real Clear Politics poll average had Chris Christie winning by a single point. He beat Jon Corzine by a whopping 6 points. Even Rasmussen, who is the most accurate, was off by 3 points.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2009/governor/nj/new_jersey_governor_corzine_vs_christie-1051.html#polls
And if you scroll down, just a week to 10 days prior to election day some of the polls had Corzine up by 4 to 5 points.
Thanks for informing us. I remember last year when Eric was skeptical, to be charitable, regarding Sarah Palin. I do frequent Townhall.com and Hotair.com, but I also like your site and Legalinsurrection.com. We need to not only inform ourselves this election cycle, but also inform others what’s at stake. This is not your typical election, and we can’t afford to let our friends and relatives remain ignorant.
Well there is something that we should all wonder out loud about to the Allah Pundits and Eeyores…if Obama is winning or Romney’s not doing enough how come Obama is spending money in Wisconsin? How come the Triassic media inflated his meager crowd numbers in order to make them seem bigger there? Thats my state. I know the people. They are MY people. We don’t like bullys, and Obama’s union thugs up there are bullys. The imported IL thugs that went up there to trash our capitol building are bullies. We showed them once no more of this garbage. They need yet another lesson.
And here’s another lie squashed. Mitt has upwards of 128 million on hand…after big advert buys. Obama 90 million. Also Obama isn’t campaigning half as much as he should be if he was even serious about winning. He’s not doing any campaiging today. Mitt? He’s going to Colorado. Who wants it more? Obama knows he’s losing. You can see it on his face at these rallies, he’s stumbling, off script and tired.
The math is pretty simple. Let’s simplify things and assume that Obama wins all the Dem voters, Romney wins all the Reps and they split the Indys. If your sample assumes a D/R/I split of 41/34/25 (Rasmussen’s 2008 distribution) then Obama emerges as an easy winner: 53.5 – 46.5 (Obama gets 41% plus 1/2 of 25%, Romney gets 34% plus 1/2 of 25%.)
If your sample is Rasmussen’s Aug 2012 of 33/37/30 then Romney wins narrowly: 52-48, again assuming each wins 100% of their own party’s voters and the indys are split evenly.
If we use Rasmussens’s Aug 2012 sample and Dem consultant James Carvilles’ August declaration that Romney was ahead with the Indys by 16 points (let’s say 58-42) this becomes a Romney rout: 54.4-46.6 (Romney gets 37% plus 58% of the 30% indys, which is 17.4%) BTW, pollsters said Obama won indys by 8 pts in 2008.
This was not meant to be a scientific prediction but just to show how playing with the sample can affect the results, the HEADLINE so to speak. By playing with the samples a pollster can pretty much produce any result he wants, but the idea is to tamper with it just enough to produce what you want without having to make the sample obviously laughable. One recent poll had a sample of D+13 and produced Obama by 6 – that is close to being obviously laughable.
In reality, a candidate does not win all of his party’s voters – (although I don’t recall the exact numbers, in 2008, more Reps switched sides than did Dems) – but he usually gets close to 90% or so. And of course, you can’t predict how many voters will simply choose to stay home. A lot of GOP voters did not come out in 2008 while Obama drew a lot of first time voters. Many pollsters expect those two trends to not recur or even reverse themselves this year.
Here’s what GOP pollster John McLaughlin says about sampling:
http://pjmedia.com/tatler/2012/09/23/egypts-morsi-gives-us-terms-for-our-capitulation/
“The 2004 national exit polls showed an even partisan turnout and Bush won 51–48. Had it been the +4 Democratic edge of 2000, John Kerry would have been president. 2008 was a Democratic wave that gave them a +7 partisan advantage. 2010 was a Republican edge. There’s no wave right now. There are about a dozen swing states where in total millions of voters who voted in 2008 for Obama are gone or have not voted since. There are also hundreds of thousands of voters in each of several swing states like Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, and others who voted from rural, exurban or suburban areas in 2004 for Bush who did not vote in 2008, because they were not excited by McCain or thought he would lose. They are currently planning to vote mainly as a vote against President Obama.”
…You can weight to whatever result you want. Some polls have included sizable segments of voters who say they are ‘not enthusiastic’ to vote or non-voters to dilute Republicans. Major pollsters have samples with Republican affiliation in the 20 to 30 percent range, at such low levels not seen since the 1960s in states like Virginia, Florida, North Carolina and which then place Obama ahead. The intended effect is to suppress Republican turnout through media polling bias. We’ll see a lot more of this.
A short course on the MSM and skewing polls. When a poll is taken the goal (or at least should be) to sample the electorate so that you get an accurate view of the electorate.
This would include accurately sampling the number of people in different age groups, sex, race and so on.
It also should reflect the number of D’s, R’s and Independents voting.
The party affiliation varies over time, for example in 2006 & 2008 the dems held an advantage in party affiliation which was reflected in the elections those years. In fact 2008 was a high point for D Party affiliation at +7.6%. In 2010 the R’s had a +1.3 advantage a 8.9% swing from 2008.
So let’s see what happens in a poll, in most of these polls they use a turnout model. Say you run a poll, some people will identify as R’s, some D’s some Independent (I’s) and some will say other (Green, Libertarian and so on.
In a poll typical of this year 90% of R’s are choosing Romney, 5% Obama and 5% undecided. looking at the D’s it will be 90% Obama, 5% Romney and 5% undecided. Then the Independents, others will be 48% Romney, 40% Obama and10 undecided and 8% other.
So all things being equal Romney would have a lead of a couple of %. But all things are not equal the poll then applies their turnout model. In most of these polls the y are using a dem +7-+10 turnout and then Obama is in the lead. The MSM breathlessly report the result and the (moronic) journalist solemnly proclaim the Romney campaign in trouble.
Dos anybody in the REAL WORLD think the support for the Democrats and Obama is larger than 2008? Of course not but that is what the media is asking you to believe in these polls.
Rasmussen is using a +2-3%D model so today for example he is reporting the race at 46-46%. however tellingly IMO Romney is leading by 12% among independents from rasmussen’s daily tracking poll today:
“Obama is supported by 89% of Democrats. Romney gets the vote from 85% of Republicans and holds a 12-point advantage among unaffiliated voters.”
So sites like unskewed polls and rebalanced polls (http://polls2012.blogspot.com/) use polling models that reflect more current partisan afiliation numbers.
Rasmussen last survey for August showed a R +4.3% advantage, Yes even Rasmussen isn’t using this number.
If instead of a poll that uses a sample of 39%D, 32%R & 29%I and showing Obama up 3% they used the latest Rasmussen party affiliation 33.3%D, 37.6R and 29.2%I, the results are DRASTICALLY different.
Sorry for being so long winded, hopefully this will help people understand the game the MSM is playing with their polls.
Here is the link for a monthly summary of party affiliation going back to 2004.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/mood_of_america_archive/partisan_trends/summary_of_party_affiliation
BTW if you look at the rebalanced poll for this week at: http://polls2012.blogspot.com/
they cover all the ‘biggies’ that came out this week and the results after the ‘correct’ the polling models as ALL THE SAME within .4% for all the polls Romney’s results range from 49.99-50.37%, and Obama from 45.92% to 46.23%.
The only difference between the 6 polling firms covered is their polling model that’s it… they all same the same thing (inc the CBS/NYW and CNN polls from the end of last week which fell off this chart.
What a wonderfully encouraging commentary. It is so hard to imagine the MSM polls are correct. The right is so energized, the left is becoming more and more silent. Love to read your stuff, Kevin. Love Hillbuzz. I have two single daughters, are you sure you’re gay? I mean you’re smart, articulate, GORGEOUS and conservative. Come on, really?
Thank you, thank you, thank you. I can’t take it any more. I’m so happy I found this site to carry me through to election day. You and Rush. You’re the only sane people left. All the others – yech!
Listen to Mark Levin too!
Thank you for this link btw, I don’t know if I said it earlier, I certainly spread it far and wide and was all over that site, very, very in keeping with the way I see this election and why I call it 61-39, it is going to be a landslide, Americans do NOT do pathetic for long.
Dear Kevin, I just started reading your site a few weeks ago. Some friends kept posting your url with uplifting stuff, so checked it out. Now you and Ulsterman are the only ones I read. I live with an Eeyore. He is driving me nuts. But then, I have been married to the man for 36 years and don’t expect him to change. I send him links at work. I will be sending him your posts.
Btw, my oldest son and DIL voted for Odumbo in 08. I had a good visit with each of them in August. That won’t be happening again. I give them a break, I voted for Carter when I was young and stupid. Redeemed myself by voting for Reagan twice and Republican since. I used to be Independent…never voted in a primary, but did in 10. I guess I am a registered Republican now.
Keep up the good fight hun, you are doing good and a lot of us look to you for our daily morale boost.
I hear you Cyndye! This Cyndi has been married to an Eeyore for 31 years and he’s drivin’ me nuts too. And I also have a daughter who voted for Obummer in ’08 has seen the ligtht and plans to vote for Romney this time.
Don’t feel too bad, Cyndye–I voted for freakin’ MONDALE!!!
WHAT was I thinking?!?!?!
Left the Dem party in ’92 and have been voting Republican ever since. We all do dumb things when we’re young. At least I never boarded the Choom bus!
Just askin’ — how could you vote for Carter and then vote for Reagan twice?
The proof is in the puddin’. Regardless of the region of the country you live, compare the number of Obama bumper stickers you see this election cycle with those you saw in 2008. The Obama bumper sticker guy is hurtin’.
https://my.barackobama.com/page/s/get-your-obama-biden-sticker-alt-2
They gave and are giving the bumper stickers out for free! (see above link) So that makes your comment about them even more important. They literally can’t give them away!
George, I live in a small Southron city- 53% black. In the 2008 election cycle Bamster bumperstickers, buttons, yard signs, tee-shirts were everywhere.
The first year “anniversary” of the Chicago Con artist’s election? “Yes we did!” garbage everywhere…
This time? One bumper sticker on an old black lady’s van. Her, I’ll give a pass to.
The rest? About five I’ve seen- and I live on the alternate truck route- I see a lot of traffic.
All on Prius-like vehicles driven by old, guilty-looking white folks. Usually with an “educator” prestige plate.
R&R yard signs & bumper stickers are popping up all over the place. It’s almost like a revolution…
Kevin- thank you so much for putting into words the frustration so many of us are feeling with the conservative media. Like you, I can’t understand how these sites can tout polls they know–according to their own reporting–are hopelessly skewed toward Obama! And the hand wringing about every Romney comment! America was attacked by terrorists due to Obama’s incompetence–and Romney had a bad week? And why do no republicans except Bay Buchanan and Ann Coulter push back against this ridiculous narrative? It’s infuriating! Why do none of them dispute these polls?
I’m so annoyed. Went over to the Blaze and was reading what I thought was a nice light article on the shocking applause when they were asked if they were voting for Mitt Romney. Jimmy did not expect the reaction he got, that’s for sure.
Anyway, buried in the comments was this gem: “We progressives still have a trump card that will win Obama the presidency, make that two trump cards. I will give a hint, there are two candidates who lost the GOP primary which many of you believe are on your side. However, the truth is they have a lot more in common with progressives. Those two candidates are doing an incredible service to the progressive cause.
PROGRESSIVEPETE
Posted on September 23, 2012 at 10:02pm”
What kind of BS is this now? If any of you comment at the blaze, please go over there and answer this guy. TIA
Fiscal and social Conservative I am. Believe in hand up not hand OUT. I have always have been and always will be. I am an USAF brat and only lived in the ‘zone of the interior’ for 3 of what was 18 years. This country is going to hell in a hand basket with the “One’ leading the lemmings with his choom smoke trailing behind. His smile may be lovely, his oratory soaring (lefty opinion only is my estimation) but he is as is said ‘the devil in disguise’! Used to get somewhat up with the blatant lies but I realized that being upset did not change a thing, for me or anyone else. I looked anew with dispassion and bingo, I can actually feel some pity for the Obamabots of this great nation. Great way to feel!!! WE WILL WIN.
PLEASE Keep stories like this coming, Kevin!
Sometimes it feels like we’re living in an alternate reality out here–nice to know there’s other people out there who recognize the poll results for the Kabuki Theatre that they are.
Kevin, I totally agree with you, and I have some GOOD NEWS to spread to the rest of us (I’ll keep it brief):
First, two of Obama’s top advisors Robert Gibbs and Messina have both said recently that they expect Romney to have the advantage in the presidential debates, with Gibbs saying “Romney did brag that he won 16 of the 20 debates in the primaries.” Both advisors seemed to touch on the fact that Obama hasn’t practiced in four years and that he’s “long winded” — translation is there will probably be lots of Uuuuuhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhs without that teleprompter from Obama, and that can’t be good considering the race is at the very least tied nationally according to Gallup and Rasmussen.
Second, I saw this on Fox news that 44% of younger voters (who probably will go for BO 60-40) have moved to a different location since 2008 and don’t remember which polling location they are registered to vote in! There may be a lot of “oops, oh well!” from voters 18-24 at the polls on election day, which won’t be good for Obama’s key voting block. Source: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/09/23/report-roughly-half-2008-first-time-youth-vote-now-unsure-registration-status/
Third, Gallup reported this week that a record high 60% of Americans do not trust the mass media to deliver fully accurate, fair and complete news coverage. 58% of Democrats are happy with the media (naturally, because it agrees with them) but only 31% and 26% of independents and Republicans (respectively) trust the news anymore. What this means is: any terrible news on Romney will have minimal impact on those who aren’t Democrat. Democrats will act like it’s devastating to Romney, but most people will tune it out — just look at how the “DEVASTATING” 47% comment had virtually no effect on Gallup polling or Rasmussen.
Finally, I have a less factual but more gut feeling about this. I think that conservatives have much more urgency than the rest of the country to vote for Romney and get Obama out. Everyone I talk to have a purpose to this election. I have had several people, who for the first time in their lives, are saying “If I don’t vote for Romney, the country will not last.”
You just don’t see that on the Democrat’s side. Most can’t even tell me one reason why they want Obama back in, they just say “I like him” and they don’t like Romney. Translation: I think nearly every single conservative who hasn’t been living under a rock will turn out this time, and I think Democrats, who are overconfident and not in urgency, will not make the same resolve to get to the polls. Gallup may have the candidates tied at around 46% each, but I’d bet on Romney’s older and more reliable 46% showing up to vote rather than Obama’s young and less enthusiastic 46% to actually show up. Anyone can answer the phone and say they will vote, but only Romney supporters will walk on hot coals to actually make it happen when it counts.
Keep up the great work, we will win this!
I hope this is the right thread. ;o)
You asked someone about a program to adjust polling numbers?
mnjg on Hot Air posted one tonight.
http://www.fileconvoy.com/dfl.php?id=g0f9a1c6111e9b12e14951111d0a0649192bfc3
It may be the same person you had a convo with before. Just in case it wasn’t, I wanted to give you a head’s up on this program.
I’m doing what I can on other forums to post DaTechGuy’s link, and the UnSkewedPoll link. Just tonight I found someone who must be a dem. Doesn’t know math from his elbow, nor statistics from his ass. ;o)
Holy Cow!
Keep writing all the way to 2016 dude, I haven’t enjoyed a well-thought out rant of that caliber in months. Thanks for the welcome boost, I too am happy to have found your site.
Thank you Kevin,injoyed this site.I live in Alabama and i have not seen a Obama sign anywhere,plenty of Romney signs.But no Obama.Guess that tells you something.
You are terrific, Kevin! Great rant and great info! You have definitely lifted my spirits about the election.
Like all the comments following your wonderful article, I too am so happy to have found your website. You and your followers have made my day. Romney/Ryan will TRIUMPH ! November 7. Thank You