The Left’s Collective Mental Health is Tied to NATE SILVER — his oddball predictions are all that’s keeping them together at this point
I find this fascinating…and kind of wish I had been at least a psychology minor in college because I’d love to have a better handle on what drives people to believe in charlatans and hucksters right now. I took one or two psychology courses for my core requirements, but think it would have been very helpful to study more on the subject because as a political writer I seem to observe so many crazy people on a daily basis.
There is a man who you might have never heard of named Nate Silver who has become the new high priest of the Obama cult. Silver, according to this article, is some kind of writer at the New York Times who also runs one of their offshoot websites. I’d never heard of him until after the Denver presidential debate when I started seeing his name pop up on Facebook on the pages of many lefties that I monitor. Clearly, he must appear on MSNBC a lot or something, because the Left really loves this guy and uses him to calm any fears that lefties have in the lead up to next week’s election.
What happens is something like this (and it’s repeated over and over on the Facebook pages of the Leftists I watch online):
Lucy Lefty: I’m scared that Obama’s really going to lose and that the polls are lying to us when they say he’ll win.
Angry Lefty: Shutup! Nate Silver says Obama has a 75% chance of winning. He’s smart. He writes for the NYT. He did the math.
Lucy Lefty: That makes no sense because how can he get that 75% chance thing? Did he just make that up? That’s like saying my cat said Obama will win and everyone knows my cat lies to avoid being called a racist.
Angry Lefty: Shutup! Nat Silver knows that Obama will win Iowa and Ohio and New Hampshire and will win North Carolina and Virginia too. Nate Silver said it, so SHUTUP!
It never gets more detailed than that…but is just a lot of repeating that “Nate Silver said…” or “I heard Nate Silver say…” or “Nate Silver wrote…” over and over again.
Psychologists reading this, please help me identify the proper terminology here…but I think something like this is happening: the Left has built a psychological wall that’s keeping out the reality that Barack Obama is going to lose on November 6th; they don’t want to deal with the messy emotions associated with realizing that, yes, in fact Obama is going to lose and will be just a one-term, failed president. So they built this wall, and the wall is named “Nate Silver”.
If this was a video game, the energy forcefield the Left would trigger to block out any information they don’t want to hear would be called “Nate Silver said…” and it would completely envelop their character on the screen in an impenetrable shell that deflects all reality.
“Nate Silver said” is a magic spell the lefties mutter that lets them breathe without fear that, yes, Obama is really losing this.
Whenever anyone questions whether Obama will win on the Left…someone just shouts “NATE SILVER SAID!” and the rest of the lefties on the page join in to beat down the person who tried to note that none of this makes any sense, because Obama is clearly losing and the propaganda that the Ministry of Truth is still pushing at this point isn’t the least bit believable anymore.
Honestly, to even get a poll that shows Obama in the lead Minitru must now conjure samples that are (D+9) or even (D+10) when the best Democrats have ever managed for a partisan advantage was (D+7) in 2008 (aka, their best showing ever in a modern political race). This year, the electorate is going to be (R+2) or so (if not higher)…so all the polls Minitru’s been pushing are based in a BizarroWorld of complete opposites where Democrats are more beloved than ever after four years of Obama in the White House. This is just not true. It’s actually pure madness.
Nate Silver has emerged as the Left’s Baghdad Bob, even more so than Chris Matthews on MSNBC (who I normally call “Baghdad Bob”). For those who don’t remember, the real Baghdad Bob was Saddam Hussein’s Minister of Information who would go on tee-vee every day claiming that Saddam was winning the war and that there were no American troops in Baghdad; meanwhile, in the background RIGHT BEHIND HIM, a truckload of American GIs would roll by, drop trow, and moon the Iraqi cameras while Baghdad Bob was talking. It was hilarious…and Americans of all stripes mocked the shameless propaganda of Saddam Hussein’s regime.
Here in 20102, I don’t think it’s all that funny that the American media has truly become a Ministry of Truth for the Obama Regime…and I hope there will be consequences for all the propaganda that was pushed in the lead up to the election. I hope even the Leftists out there get angry that MSNBC and the New York Times lied to them so aggressively while serving Obama. If Nate Silver keeps telling these people that there’s no way Obama loses and that he says there’s a 75% chance Obama’s going to win Ohio or North Carolina or other states that are clearly already lost to him, then I really worry about the emotional health of a lot of lefties who will be stunned out of their minds on November 6th when Romney wins in a big way.
Nate Silver is lying to all these people and at the moment they love being lied to because it’s allowing them to avoid dealing with an unpleasant reality.
It’s my theory, actually, that the games of make-believe and pretend will be facilitated through Halloween…because this is one of the Left’s favorite holidays. There’s costumes, lots of booze, candy, and the excuse to go wild in the middle of a work week with no family pressure linked to the major US get-together holidays like Thanksgiving and Christmas. I don’t think many on the Left want to even think about the election while there is still plenty of Halloween fun to be had today and tomorrow. But, come November 1st, I think they’ll start to work out of their Halloween hangovers and start to think about the election.
Will Nate Silver keep lying to them until the bitter end…or will he have a “Media Credibility Day” (a term coined by Peter Imgeni on his site DaTechGuy) and suddenly claim there was some sort of violent shift to Mitt Romney overnight and now Obama’s really going to lose the election so everyone better prepare for that?
All of the pollsters are going to have to admit that Romney’s going to win in the last days of the election…because all of them need to be right in the last poll before the votes are counted. Otherwise, their reputations are ruined and they can’t earn money as pollsters again. All of the deliberately skewed polls running (D+9) or (D+10) samples in an (R+2) or (R+3) year were designed to influence early voting and try to mitigate the destruction Democrats will face on week from now, with the thinking being that if the Ministry of Truth just kept saying Obama was winning that the Left would believe it and wouldn’t become demoralized and depressed and sit home. The goal was, in fact, to trick foolish conservatives into believing that Obama was winning so THEY would be freaked out and demoralized. Sadly, a great many conservative websites and pundits played the roles of Tokyo Roses and repeated a lot of Minitru’s lies to Republicans and we’ve seen a few weeks of needless panic and “worry” (a favorite word of these Eeyores) in conservative ranks…when in actuality the people who should have been freaking out this whole time are those on the Left.
Nate Silver’s oddball predictions of an Obama win despite all evidence to the contrary look to be the very last thing keeping the Left from an all-out meltdown. He really appears to be the wall that Democrats have erected to separate themselves from the harsh reality of Barack Obama’s coming defeat.
I’d love students of psychology to weigh in here and tell me what you think will happen when Nate Silver is discredited?
As in…what’s going to happen to him after the election? Will the Left turn on him…and take their anger out on him…for lying to them?
Or will the Left just lash out at Barack Obama for failing them?
Who gets the blame and becomes the focal point of the Left’s undying fury come November 7th?
© 2012, Kevin DuJan. All rights reserved.
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Right now my best guess is that the left will blame Obama’s loss on the hurricane and the fact that so many people could not get to the polls. They will declare it an unjust win for Romney, Just like they did to Bush in 2000. Even though every recount done by the 4 major newspapers in Florida showed Bush to win by even larger margins that the actual recount, the left will always believe it was handed to him by the Supreme Court.
The Leftys are bad like hat! They get a stupid idea stuck in their head and there seems to be NO WAY to dislodge it!!! Poor Leftys…they are SO delusional!!
I don’t think there will be any professional consequences for Nate Silver. The day before, or day of, the election, he’ll change his tune. Everything he’s said up until then will be forgotten, because being wrong in a group is psychologically safer and less risky than being right on your own. When everyone’s wrong, it doesn’t matter…he’ll be able to show that, up to that point, the math was correct. And they’ll all agree with him, because they were wrong too.
John, I believe you are absolutely right. It’s why we are now hearing excuses, all over the MSM, in advance of the election, WHY Obama may lose the election. Naturally, they don’t think he’ll lose it because he’s been an abject failure for four years, or because he never should have been elected in the first place, or because we cannot afford four more years on his nonsense. No, it’s because of the hurricane, or because of vote fraud by Republicans (yeah, right), or because Obama was so busy working his foreign policy that he didn’t have a chance to campaign, blah, blah, blah. It’s called DENIAL, and the left are experts at living in a la-la land that bears no resemblance to reality. They truly believe that if you tell a big enough lie often enough, people will believe.
This is why I think Nate Silver, whoever he is, has become their new guru. He’s telling the BIG LIE that they want to hear. He makes them feel good about themselves. Then, when the big lie is exposed, he will come up with excuses for the error. Excuses that the lefties will swallow hook, line and sinker, because the excuses will make them feel oh-so-superior to the majority of Americans who know better.
It is amazing to me that there are so many people who are so absolutely WRONG in their worldview, but stick to it so tenaciously. So they look to people like SIlver or Paul Krugman who write BS that supports that worldview, and use their ramblings to continue to support policies that are absolutely WRONG.
Of course, they say the same thing about us…
John and DG have it right, as confirmed by he best list of the 20 original AA character defects set forth by Clarence Snyder here: http://www.a-1associates.com/aa/INFO%20LIST/ClarenceSnyder.htm
Let’s go through that list to find the answer to our host’s inquiry.
1. Resentment, Anger: This defect would be projected on the perceived enemy, Romney, as point man for the accountability demanded by clean living, sober, Mormons (and any other Americans who get up every day and make an honest living), as well as “corporate America” or the “military industrial complex,” citing Eisenhower.
2. Fear, Cowardice: Might prompt some to think, “What if I was wrong, and the enemy right, and maybe Romney should have won for the good of the country. Well, I’ll let the far left carry the battle, then I’ll decide where I stand.”
3. Self pity: “I guess my lot in life is always to be on the side of the loser. Poor me. That’s what I get for trying to help other people who don’t want to help themselves.”
4. Self justification: To get past fear and cowardice, some Lefties will conclude they did their best, and the loss was “somebody else’s” fault. “I did the right think backing Obama, since I fight for principle and the rights of those less fortunate.”
5. Self importance, Egotism: Lefties secretly will chastise themselves with the belief “it would have been different if personally I had done more for Obama.” Righty: “Really?” Lefty: “You just wait and see come 2016.”
6. Self condemnation, Guilt: “I really could have done more, now that I think about it, but it’s too late. How could I have been so blind?”
7. Lying, Evasiveness, Dishonesty: “Well, even Nate Silver got this wrong, so I can’t be too far off the mark. How could he have foreseen all the weird things that resulted in the surprising Romney victory? I think I’ll reread his November 8 list of ‘oddball factors that no one could have predicted.’” The list includes Hurricane Sandy, recalcitrant ballot takers, long lines, anything but Nate Silver’s model was a pos.
8. Impatience: “When is the rest of America going to see Obama is a saint in their midst? Maybe I’ll move to some other country, where they still love him, and we can immediately share our love for Saint Barack.” Or, if it’s the Middle East, the Prophet Barack Hussein.
9. Hate: “ I hate the majority of people in this country and everything they stand for.”
10. False pride, Phoniness, Denial: “My position was the best; I can’t believe the the majority of Americans cannot see the truth. I am going to maintain my position without any need for re-examination.”
11. Jealousy: “The reason R won is because the rich people wanted him to win, and they fooled the poor middle class. It’s ridiculous the rich always get what they want.”
12. Envy: “I could be rich too if I wanted to be, but I am above that, even though rich people do have pretty nice stuff I wouldn’t mind having, which of course I would use to help poor people.”
13. Laziness: “I think I’ll spend the next four years banging the drum for the 2016 Democrat, so I won’t have to get with the program and do some real work.”
14. Procrastination: “After I am done getting a Democrat elected President in 2016, I can get down to completing my life’s mission.”
15. Insincerity: “Well, OK, Romney won, congratulations, I guess that’s how our system works, even though he cheated.’
16. Negative Thinking: “The American public was defrauded and every fact that points to the opposite is false.”
17. Immoral thinking: “Just goes to show, Mormon men have it made, what with all their wives and concubines. Hmm, maybe I should give that a try.”
18. Perfectionism, Intolerance: “Why is it others cannot see how brilliant my position is, and why, when I point this out to them, they still don’t get it?”
19. Criticizing, Loose Talk, Gossip: “I heard the real reason we lost the election was ……. [whatever the latest conspiracy theory is]. This really facilitates a lot of other character defects, like resent, procrastination, negative thinking, etc.
20. Greed: “Screw it, I am going to make more money than Republicans, and I’m going to do it by opening a conservative web site so I can be one of the Tokyo Roses Kevin talks about, which will really be helping Democrats, I think.” Or maybe I’ll just put out a book on the Coming Inflation. Or maybe I’ll do something original and get elected President. Spin, spin, spin, and repeat the cycle of defects.
Awesome article, and awesome comment! I think it’s spot on.
He’s pretty much painting himself into a corner, though. When people wise up in the long run as to what he’s been doing, there’s going to be a lot of angry people.
Nate Silver, his name is everywhere. It doesn’t matter that he’s wrong, he’s only interested it getting his name out there. This is his ticket to the next level and he’s taking it. As for his Kool-aid drinking followers he will find some excuse to appease most of them. The others will stagger off into the night to lick their wounds.
Maybe Axelrod will hire Silver for his Center for Political Bullcrap Studies? You ever wonder what in the wide world Alexrod is going to teach little mush heads? Judge Shopping 101, Circumventing the Constitution 101 & 102, Building Your Candidate (Stuff you keep and stuff you bury), and of course the all important – Finding the Bimbo. Can you really build a center for study on what you can pick up from a 1950′s scandal rag?
I keep thinking back to 1996 when Dole ran for president. Many of us on the Right didn’t want Dole. We respected his service to our country, but he simply was not the person to unseat Clinton, and we were angry he was foisted upon us. But we wanted to get rid of Clinton, so we grudgingly accepted Dole as our nominee.
By summer, it was obvious that Dole was in deep trouble. We couldn’t face the prospect of another 4 years of Slick, so we clung to any news that gave us a glimmer of hope. Rush didn’t lie to us; instead, he tried in vain to find the slightest ray of hope anywhere he could. We were in denial, well, kinda. In our hearts we knew the score, but we just couldn’t face it.
McCain, too. It was over after the market meltdown and bailouts in early October.
I defence of Nate Silver, he has a good model that includes a lot of things. I dispute some of his weighting, but generally he’s on track with the model.
But… I studied statistics in college, and the one thing that was drummed into us over and over and over, is that statistical analysis is only as good as the data you start with.
Silver and most pollsters out there reject the notion of weighting by Party ID. I understand the reasons, but if you ARE weighting by other factors, you can’t ignore one of the most prominent at the same time.
That’s why Silver’s results (not his model) are so horribly wrong this time around — the data he is relying on is bad, bad, bad.
Now for the good news: the polls ARE shifting (NPR this morning has Romney up by 1), which will impact Silver’s model. (The closer we get to the election, the more impact the most recent polls have on the model.) Eventually, just like the polling organizations, come election day the model will show Romney winning.
Oh, and that NPR poll today has a D+4 sample. Bahahaha.
Yeah. Doesn’t Silver basically just apply higher weights to the polls he likes, and lower weights to the ones he doesn’t? It’s still prone to bias because he has to have some way to decide which are the good polls and which are the bad ones.
If there is a systematic over-sampling of Dems then all the data will be bad no matter how you pick your winners and losers.
I have a lot of respect for Silver largely because I’m a huge stat-oriented baseball fan (Go Cardinals!) but it’s ludicrous for people to assume he’s some sort of genius. His first claim to fame was his PECOTA projections, which were very good and ground-breaking in many ways. But the thing is, PECOTA is no better than other projection systems now. Other systems, like CHONE, Marcels, ZiPS, Oliver, etc. have shown parity with PECOTA.
There are reasons to think that Silver benefited from a “perfect storm” scenario in 2008 just like Obama did. Didn’t he have access to the Obama campaign’s internal data? I have read that he did. Also, somebody systematically biased towards Dems in 2008 could have looked brilliant because of the unusually low enthusiasm on the Republican side and the unusually high enthusiasm on the Democrat side. If 2008 was an outlier in the real world then such a bias would be harder to detect, and could influence your future assumptions.
He’s not the only pollster with a sterling record, either. There are very respected people who do work like he does, aggregating poll data and trying to adjust them to get a better picture of what is really going on. And some of these people are making projections that are completely different from him.
Basically, either (1) he really is the smartest guy in the room or (2a) he will have to make huge adjustments between now and the election and save his reputation, or (2b) he will be one of the biggest “losers” in the media when all is said and done.
You ask if lefties will take out their frustrations on Silver, or take it out on Obama.
Neither, in my opinion.
If 2010 is an example, the left will be in total denial that there was even a loss at all. It was quite remarkable how the day after the 2010 elections it was as if it didn’t happen at all.
I think somehow anything other than leftie candidates and leftie policies will receive all the blame. That leaves: Racism, voter fraud, Count Stormula (or whatever), Racism, or their inability to correctly tell ‘the story’. Did I mention racism?
Racism is one of the big guns in their arsenal against conservatives. Part of: SIXHRB (Sexist, Islamophobic, Xenophobic, Homophobic, Racist and Bigoted. [Thanks to Dennis Prager for that gem]).
I expect anything OTHER THAN responsibility to come flying out of the left.
They are already all over the place with the racism meme. I was beyond sick of it in 2008, and I will not tolerate it in 2012! But the left doesn’t have anything else, ’cause otherwise they would have to admit that Obama was a complete failure.
Yeah, this.
If Obama loses it will be because RACIST! Period.
I agree. I know people who still firmly believe there was a coup d’etat in 2000, and poor ManBearPig was REALLY President, but robbed.
The idea that Gore really won may be what fuels some of the baseless and quite frankly insane loyalty to him and his weirdness, even as he gets crazier with age.
Some people firmly believe and inhabit their alternate reality, and even in extremis we are still the most free and prosperous nation on the planet, so they CAN continue to live in alterverse, where down is up, secure in the sacred knowledge that only THEY know the “TRUTH”.
It is tinfoil hat land, and they are simply preparing for true believer status after the election, so they can network in the underground for “the greater good”.
This is just the solidification of the true crazies who will form the nucleus of one side in the Dem Civil War you’ve (Kevin’s) been writing about.
And some people are much much happier being on the outside (there’s your pathology)–much more comfortable protesting and complaining than governing, doing (WORKING at something actually PRODUCTIVE). “No!” is always easier than “yes”–look at any two year old.
The romance of the underdog, the only lonely crucified real being–with no responsibility, because…they’re just the screwed underdog.
I read that Silver was accurate in ’08 because Axelrod was feeding him their (actual) internals. So, I guess that might be where his supposed credibility comes from: he was essentially right the last time, even if it wasn’t his work.
Wasn’t he also a member of Journolist– that bunch of non-biased professionals that used to sit around and talk smack about all things Non-Progressive/Socialist. Again, another reason for the weird Krugman-like worship of such a complete dolt.
Yes, Silver was a Journolist. Tells you all you need to know, doesn’t it?
That’s exactly right. Silver generated the numbers that foretold O’s climb to victory in 2008 and became a hero in his own right. His calculations are now permanently associated with victory no matter how faulty they may be. The Left can’t see it any other way. Obviously, he’s still drunk on power he gained in ’08. Smartest guy in the room, dontcha know.
As the left always does, they will continue the lie. Even after the election we will be told by the left that the election was stolen, Romney lied and acted like someone he really wasn’t. They will say he would not have won being the person he is and he had to lie to win. They will create another “West Wing” tee-vee show to cop with the reality and will NEVER admit liberalism was rejected by the american people…..they never have
I just saw similar comments on another site. I paraphrase, a couple went into a restaurant and people at the bar were expressing worry about the election. Someone at the bar popped up with “Nate Silver said…” and the mood at the bar instantly changed.
You wait, when Obama loses the left will say, “Oh, look. Nate’s prediction about Obama’s 25% chance of losing came true!”
Also, he’s not lying to the left. He’s sharing his own personal delusion out loud.
Synergy is a group dynamics where people play off one another to produce greater accomplishments than could ever be accomplished by themselves. Romney is a man that with bring together great minds that will play off one another to solve the problems that now face us. No one person will be more important than any other person.
Group think is a group dynamic in which group cohesiveness becomes more important than individual contributions to solve problems. People look to the leader to find out what they should think and behave. Anyone who goes against the group think is demonized so everyone falls into line.
Recommended reading: Groupthink: An Impediment to Success by Dr. Clifton Wilcox
FYI, the anagram for Nate Silver Said is Satan Devilries. LOL!
Douchebag Richard Cohen suddenly pining for the Kennedy era:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/richard-cohen-obama-the-president-who-seems-not-to-care/2012/10/29/a52246a0-21e2-11e2-ac85-e669876c6a24_story.html
Is this guy the former Mr. Ann Althouse? Or is that a different Richard Cohen?
Dr Sanity is a psychiatrist who’s been writing for years on this topic. Her site is a complete course in Abnormal Psychology – Leftist Subtype.
Good place to start: Psychological Defense Mechnisms. Silverism sounds like it would be an example of “Denial” or “Distortion”.
Here’s a rather eeyorish article about Nate Silver’s polling methodology:
http://townhall.com/tipsheet/kevinglass/2012/10/29/the_reliability_of_polls__and_polling_experts_like_nate_silver
Nate Silver is not God. Just sayin’…
Most of the Democrats I know remain confident Obama will win. I don’t know why they remain optimistic, quite frankly I haven’t bothered to ask. I let them know I believe Romney will win so the conversation ends with “We’ll see.”
I’m concerned that a couple of the more intense Obamatons will lose it when Zero loses. My wife’s supervisor at work is very passionate about Obama and doesn’t take opposition to Obama very well, the main reason my wife keeps politics out of conversations at work. I’m not sure she will be able to handle Obama’s loss without medication.
My buddy Tim’s girlfriend may be a candidate for the rubber room. They are both Democrats but my friend isn’t a nutcase about it. But his girlfriend is. She once called me a racist for being a conservative and opposing Obama, I make a point of hanging around Tim only when she’s not around. I think she will have a meltdown for the ages on November 6th. My friend is definitely worried about that, he told me on the phone a couple of days ago he believes Obama will lose.
(sorry if this posts twice – can’t see whether or not my first post ‘took’ and went to moderation)
Dr Sanity is a psychiatrist who’s been writing for years about the abnormal psychology of the Left, complete with links and colored pictures.
A good intro: Psychological Defense Mechanisms
A fun game: Let’s Play “Name that Defense Mechanism!”
This could be a fun game to play at HillBuzz, now that we’re getting so good at “Whack-A-Troll”, “Don’t Say Liberal”, and “Spot the Fear Pr0n”
Nate Silver is on my wish list of things I want to see next week. Here’s my wish list.
1. Obama going down in flames as a failed president that wrecked the Democratic Party.
2. Harry Reid’s demotion to Senate MINORITY leader.
3. The nut jobs on MSNBC having a meltdown on live TV. Tuesday night I’m watching MSNBC (in the background) while the results come in. Must see that freakshow!
4. The shocked look on the faces of the Ministry of Truth that their shameless promotion of Barack Obama since 2007 has failed.
5. (next 3 are for later in the week) I want to re-read the comments on the lefty sites like Daily Kos as they watched the results coming in. Might not be able to handle their vulgarity for long but it should be funny reading about the moment that they realized their Dear Leader was going down.
6. The leftist propaganda coming from Nate Cohn (you should look him up too, writes for New Republic) being discredited.
7. The leader of the left, Nate Silver, being shown to be a fraud. Any model showing a 75% chance of Obama winning is laughably inaccurate.
Schadenfreude much?
I’m with you–it’s going to be fun!
Along with #3 for me is Oh No They Didn’t, they are the MSNBC of the gossip world. Election night will be interesting to say the least.
Remember last election right before election day there was a forecaster out of Arizona who claimed to have a “model” that showed McCain winning in a landslide. He claimed he had never been wrong going back 40 years. It went viral in those desperate final days, even on this site. The day after, he received much hate email!
I do remember that. His name is Paul Marston, and he still runs his website (www.marstonchronicles.info). At least, this is the guy I believe you are referring to.
To his credit, he had a very strong case, it’s just that a few of his assumptions proved to be incorrect which brought his entire thesis crashing down. Also to his credit, he immediately wrote that had been wrong and as a dispassionate numbers guy he set about trying to figure out and explain to his readers what he was wrong about. I believe there were three main factors.
First, he assumed the partisan split of the electorate would not be as strong for the Democrats as it ended up being. He thought Republican enthusiasm and turnout would bounce back towards 2004 levels after the very bad 2006 midterms. He was wrong and they did not bounce back. Too many conservatives and Republicans stayed home, and a few crossed over. Obama proved to be too unique a candidate, and attracted unusual enthusiasm.
Second, he allowed himself to believe that the PUMA vote (Party Unity My Ass) would be a larger factor than it ended up being. Too many angry Hillary supporters ended up either siding with Obama after all or just not voting, and they did not turn out for McCain.
Third, McCain made a late bid for Pennsylvania. Marston is a veteran in the business and figured that maybe, just maybe, McCain’s internals showed it was actually winnable after all. If that was the case then it was a whole new ballgame. Turns out it was more of a desperation move, I believe.
He still writes stuff but it’s much harder to find on his website, he turned it into kind of a new hub and you have to check the “Politics” and “Elections” sections for his writings.
Please don’t blame the PUMAs. I was a PUMA and I and all my PUMA friends voted for McCain. If conservatives had simply shown up and voted for McCain in 08 he would have won easily. That’s because there are more conservatives/center-right people in this country than leftists. And that’s why Romney will win – conservatives are going to have a huge turn-out this election. (This PUMA also voted for Romney in early voting.)
I remember that too. Mr. Marston’s incorrect supposition was that the Hillary crowd would wake up at the last moment and vote for McCain. It really was a hail mary thought that I, for one, hoped would happen. Unfortunately, it didn’t. Marston’s website was down for a few weeks after the 2008 election as a result. I didn’t realize it was from hate mail. We should understand that we are allowed to read what we want and believe what we want without getting mad if our “want” doesn’t come to pass. Will we be mad at Kevin if Romney loses? I won’t. It’s not his fault that I believe what he writes (because I agree with most of it). To each his own ….
I’m already mad at Kevin.
I can’t walk past a crock pot without thinking about him.
They will blame racism, Tagg Romney voting machines, and Koch/Adelson $$$.
I’m already getting called a racist by many friends and my own mother for opposing Obama and it’s only going to get worse.
Face it guys, the Left is an extremely large faith-based community.
Oh, really? Is that why they left God out of the Democrat convention?
Good Captain didn’t say they had faith in God, just in their own invincibility. And our esteemed Mr. Silver seems to have inordinate faith in his intellect, delusional though his thinking is. Realize that any group that voted for “Hope” and “Change” is working strictly on faith, not on logic or common sense.
Yes. Their problem lies in the object on which their faith is based and I agree that its not based on God.
What are you talking about God “left out of the convention?”
The messiah was present.
The Father God was there ————— Bubba, “the BIG he.”
Their own Mama Wetu, their own Mother of the Nation was present as well, ——— the beard.
And of course their preferred Spirit was surely present as well, that Spirit of Scorn, contempt, mendacity and darkness that overarched them all.
Remember, though – it’s a religion of peace, and if we keep saying they’re not, they’ll kill us…
Agree with this 100 percent! I have a leftist former co-worker who makes fun of religious people. Never fails to mention that he believes it’s not sane to put faith in God. He thinks believing in God is, to put it mildly, crazy.
But, question his faith in Obama or leftist political beliefs, and just watch the anger well up. On one occasion — not making this up — this guy was shaking and on the verge of tears when he was trying to convince my husband to agree with him politically (husband was calmly offering counterpoints to every argument presented, and the lefty couldn’t handle it).
So, remind me again: Who’s the one whose faith makes them delusional?
Advertising/Tony Robbins psychological analysis:
All human action is based on two motivations/desires:
to gain pleasure
to avoid pain
Of these two, avoiding pain is the greater motivator. People will work harder to avoid pain than to gain pleasure.
For the professional lefties, the pain of no longer being relevant is so great, they construct intricate fantasies to keep their minions watching and the money coming in. To the non-professional lefties, the pain of O losing is so great, they believe in these intricate fantasies to avoid feeling the pain that they were duped, fooled and essentially abandoned by their demi god and false messiah, Obama.
Remember how you felt as a child when someone told you Santa Claus wasn’t real?
At some point for the professional lefties, they will have to turn on Obama to maintain their relevancy. It’s already started. He’s not worth giving up a seat in front of the camera or column inches or web advertising revenue. They will cast about looking for someone (Jarrett) or something (racism) to blame.
Kevin,
You don’t need a graduate degree to understand some of the mindset of a “leftie.” You can just look up Freud’s “Defense Mechanisms.” I work as a crisis counselor for children and have worked with children and their families for the last 10 years as a mental health professional. Just look at how Americans react to sports. Many are fair weather fans and jump on and off the bandwagon as their team wins games and playoff appearances. The electorate does the same thing like you have mentions in prior postings of how people in Ohio will vote this year. We all want to be on the winning side and for some that is more important than holding onto our principles.
Nate Silver will use my favorite “Defense Mechanism” and “rationalize” his way out of his predictions. Like Obama, he will blame others for his failures. Other “lefties” will gladly accept his rationalizations as they don’t want to look at their own faulty thinking and conclusions. It is always difficult to admit our shortcomings to others. More so to those we don’t have a close relationship to. American society has evolved to a point that being held accountable is the exception rather than then norm. Sad, but true.
IMO, a person’s religious and political beliefs are the core of their being. Almost all decisions we make as humans are filter through those two belief systems. That is why for many years they were taboo at family get togethers. Bringing up the fact that another person’s viewpoints of themselves and the world may need to be changed is very difficult subject to bring up in a loving manner.
Hope this helped.
“Who gets the blame and becomes the focal point of the Left’s undying fury come November 7th?”
Sarah Palin, obviously.
I think people are maybe being too harsh to Nate Silver. His work in baseball stats was very good and though he is a partisan he strikes me as the kind of analytical person who will be objective about being wrong if he does turn out to be wrong.
Just because the Left has turned him into a Golden Boy does not mean he is some sort of evil figure. I personally think he’s going to end up with egg on his face. But I do not think he is the type to willingly mislead people. I just think he is a human being and is a victim of his own biases.
Here’s an example of why I believe this:
Back in 2009 Silver’s PECOTA projections included a stunningly optimistic projection for Matt Wieters, a minor league catcher with the Orioles. Wieters was undoubtedly an elite prospect. He was a great hitter, a good defender, and he played catcher, which is the hardest position to play in many ways. But PECOTA didn’t just expect him to be a good rookie in the majors, it expected him to hit SO well that he would be an instant MVP candidate, considering he was also expected to be a good defensive catcher.
This led to huge amounts of hype, because the baseball community trust PECOTA and projections in general as being objective. They weren’t taken to be destiny, but if PECOTA said Wieters would be that good in the majors right now then he must be pretty damn awesome. A “Matt Wieters” meme started, with “Matt Wieters Facts” a la Chuck Norris.
Well, not only did Wieters predictably take much longer to succeed in the majors (it’s just hard to play in the MLB, and the truth is that baseball prospects have a huge failure rate anyway, even the supposedly elite ones) but Silver figured out there was actually a problem with PECOTA that led to it being way too optimistic about Wieters. Silver had just done a bad job of assuming how performance in the specific minor leagues he played in would translate to the majors. And he was up front about his mistake. Basically, no minor leaguer’s hitting stats can be taken at face value, and there is huge amounts of variance between the various minor leagues.
Silver missed the mark and admitted it, and fixed the problem. So I don’t think he is really a “Leftist Bad Guy” but rather a “Leftist Guy Who Is Wrong.”
It’s called an “Authority heuristic.” Heuristic essentially means “Rule of Thumb.” For example, Some people live and die for the Martha Stewart brands. She can sell a $40 dog bowl because people assume that if it’s Martha Stewart she’s figured out what’s aesthetic and what isn’t. She knows all the in’s and out’s of design “allegedly” so her blue paperclips, at Staples, are worth paying twice the price – so the argument goes.
It’s a way to short-cut thinking – let someone else do all the research and calculation and then accept that person’s or institution’s assessment. The problem is that the devotees never develop their own expertise at understanding the why’s and wherefore’s, and so they become far more acceptable to the “sell.”
Contrast that with many of us on the right who spend time reading the long explanations of why polls are accurate or they aren’t. We take the time to understand the terminology and the historic precedents and form a context for our conclusions.
The leftists simply adopt the conclusion of the “guru” if it suits their bias. Conservatives are far more grounded in reality, so we constantly look for feedback and information especially from the enemy camp. Kevin, our example of reading the lefty websites and facebook pages is a good example. In my case, I could accept Martha Stewart’s aesthetic but instead I prefer to read a variety of design magazines and read the designers’ defense of their particular preferences, and then form my own aesthetic.
People are lazy. With the tea party more people began to understand that unless we become mini-experts in political strategy then America as we know it is over. It’s why the revelation of Saul Alinsky was so vital: we had to see what the puppetmasters on the left were up to – and we were blind to it until David Horowitz, and his Discover the Networks, and Glenn Beck, and Andrew Breitbart pointed out to us the Mega-knowlege aka”thinking about thinking” of how the left operates.
Kevin, your contribution to this, as a former Democrat, is immense as well. I for one could never have comprehended some of the vicious tactics, deceits and alternative lifestyles of our pols which were hidden in plain site, apparently. (Checking Craigslist at the Dem Convention was sure enlightening.)
Anyway, the leftists who live by the “authority heuristic” will collapse in despair when the guru fails them, as Obama failed the left in the first debate. Oh, the weeping and wailing and gnashing of teeth from the left – what a delight.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heuristic
“and so they become far more acceptable to the “sell.””
SHOULD READ
“and so they become far more susceptible to the “sell”"…and I would add…to the conmen.
The Book by Nobel Prize Winners Kahneman and Tversky called “Thinking Fast and Slow” explains much of this human susceptibility to faulty thinking, and biased thinking.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daniel_Kahneman
Bingo. There is tons of Appeal to Nate Silver argument going on by the Left right now. It doesn’t matter how awesome or shiny your current Authority Figure is, it is still Appeal to Authority–which is a logical fallacy.
The friends and acquaintances of mine who Appeal to Nate Silver don’t understand his model or its underpinnings, let alone understand what kind of biases might cause it to be wrong. I don’t appeal to anybody when it comes to polls. I do my best to take a sober look at a variety of factors. Right now I see no evidence that Obama retains the kinds of advantages that he would require to win, whereas I see lots and lots of evidence that he has lost all those advantages.
The Left is supposed to distrust authority but the great irony is that they have become rabid authoritarians. Otherwise they wouldn’t believe in a Statist political philosophy and agenda. They just assumed that the wrong Authority was in charge and that if they put their guys in then everything would be fine. So naturally they will cling to the opinions of their chosen heroes.
The Right hasn’t had a hero since Reagan. The Right retains its skepticism, especially of government, but also of polling experts.
From Colvinus:
“The Left is supposed to distrust authority but the great irony is that they have become rabid authoritarians”
+100
Nice catch.
Kevin, I do believe you picked the most smug looking picture of Nate Silver you could find. I like your style…
Nate Silver will celebrate “media credibility day” on Nov. 5, just like he did with Scott Brown. He will use hurricane Sandy as cover, claiming, without support, that it suppressed the Obama vote:
http://legalinsurrection.com/2012/10/if-nate-silver-cannot-be-wrong-how-can-he-be-right/
I am no psychologist but I think the theory of cognitive dissonance might help understand why people keep following Obama and his minions even after they find out the truth about him or the fact that it is evident that he is going to lose.
http://www.simplypsychology.org/cognitive-dissonance.html This web site puts it in simple psychological terms.
Here is a quote from another web site on the theory (http://drjoecarver.makeswebsites.com/clients/49355/File/love_and_stockholm_syndrome.html) that explains why people won’t let go once rooted in a person or idea.
“Leon Festinger first coined Cognitive Dissonance. He had observed a cult (1956) in which members gave up their homes, incomes, and jobs to work for the cult. This cult believed in messages from outer space that predicted the day the world would end by a flood. As cult members and firm believers, they believed they would be saved by flying saucers at the appointed time. As they gathered and waited to be taken by flying saucers at the specified time, the end-of-the-world came and went. No flood and no flying saucer! Rather than believing they were foolish after all that personal and emotional investment they decided their beliefs had actually saved the world from the flood and they became firmer in their beliefs after the failure of the prophecy. The moral? The more you invest (income, job, home, time, effort, etc.) the stronger your need to justify your position. If we invest $5.00 in a raffle ticket, we justify losing with “ll get them next time.” If you invest everything you have, it requires an almost unreasoning belief and unusual attitude to support and justify that investment.”
I think most people would have awoken from the false narrative that Obama was the savior that was going to save them all from every ill in society i.e. “I won’t have a mortgage or worry about paying for my gas”, had it not been for the continual minitru propaganda 24/7.
These people have been so thoroughly convinced by this arm of the Obama team that Obama can’t lose that they can’t deal with the cognitive dissonance in their minds right now. So they are looking for any excuse that will allow them to accept this loss and minitru and Obama are more than happy to provide them with plenty of excuses to help deal with their conflicted feelings.
I love the different ideas here. Here is my take on all of this.
I am no psychologist but I think the theory of cognitive dissonance might help understand why people keep following Obama and his minions even after they find out the truth about him or the fact that it is evident that he is going to lose.
http://www.simplypsychology.org/cognitive-dissonance.html This web site puts it in simple psychological terms.
Here is a quote from another web site on the theory (http://drjoecarver.makeswebsites.com/clients/49355/File/love_and_stockholm_syndrome.html) that explains why people won’t let go once rooted in a person or idea.
“Leon Festinger first coined Cognitive Dissonance. He had observed a cult (1956) in which members gave up their homes, incomes, and jobs to work for the cult. This cult believed in messages from outer space that predicted the day the world would end by a flood. As cult members and firm believers, they believed they would be saved by flying saucers at the appointed time. As they gathered and waited to be taken by flying saucers at the specified time, the end-of-the-world came and went. No flood and no flying saucer! Rather than believing they were foolish after all that personal and emotional investment they decided their beliefs had actually saved the world from the flood and they became firmer in their beliefs after the failure of the prophecy. The moral? The more you invest (income, job, home, time, effort, etc.) the stronger your need to justify your position. If we invest $5.00 in a raffle ticket, we justify losing with “ll get them next time.” If you invest everything you have, it requires an almost unreasoning belief and unusual attitude to support and justify that investment.”
I think most people would have awoken from the false narrative that Obama was the savior that was going to save them all from every ill in society i.e. “I won’t have a mortgage or worry about paying for my gas”, had it not been for the continual minitru propaganda 24/7.
These people have been so thoroughly convinced by this arm of the Obama team that Obama can’t lose that they can’t deal with the cognitive dissonance in their minds right now. So they are looking for any excuse that will allow them to accept this loss and minitru and Obama are more than happy to provide them with plenty of excuses to help deal with their conflicted feelings.
Kevin,
You don’t need a psychology course to understand what’s happening. All you need is:
http://www.amazon.com/True-Believer-Thoughts-Movements-Perennial/dp/0060505915
Maybe we should start a HillBuzz Group Read after the elections.
Abigail — YES! Let’s do this just like we did back in the other big Revolution against tyrants! Hillbuzzers can start by reading about us and how we changed history!
My dear Mrs Warren, that is a splendid idea. Please permit me to observe that starting a Hillbuzz book club may be more effective at persuading our countrymen of the importance of reading than your current practice of heaving books at drivers going past the Barnstable County Courthouse….
http://www.dlewis-sculpture.com/mercyOtis.htm
(though dear Mr Adams notes that your throw is far more effective than our present Chief Executive)
I’m starting to think that the intentional over-the-top covering for and inflating of Obama’s chances is meant to cause the most dedicated lefty to become unhinged. I think they want his supporters to wake up on Nov. 6th, and feel absolute dispair when The One does not win.
The questions will be “how was this possible”, “didn’t the polls show he was going to win”, and “didn’t the news media tell us this wasn’t possible”. The rational mind when possed with such a scenerio will conclude they had been lied to by people they trusted. An unhinged mind will search for any reason, no matter how implausible, how this could have happened.
This is when the whispers that Romney “cheated” will become a shout. Followed by the lefty organizers encouraging thier unhinged and delusional followers to take to the streets, because they all know that the only way for democracy to work is through street protest. These protest will be praised by the media, and Democrats, who will both launch intensive investigations into the integrity of the elections. These will find some flimsy “evidence” of wrong doing, making the unhinged lefties feel justified, and imboldened.
You can already see the ground work being laid for this with the stories of Tagg Romney owning a voting machine company; I even saw Spock on TV talking about this as if it was 100% fact.
2nd post, first one lost in cyberspace.
Kevin et al….
I read Nate Silver column in NYT today and it is convulted to say the least.
All of the polls he uses are predicting on the 2008 model; they are NOT using current statistics so the polls are a joke.
Only Rasmussen and Suffolk use the 2012 model which is realistic and accurate. Suffolk polls not even mentioned in Silver’s piece because he outed polls for using the 08 model which is unreliable.
I don’t know what Gallup is using; but they are still on the negative list with the lefties and WH. They did not backdown after taking heat from Axlerod and Holder to bolster up Obama.
Nate Silver is serving up candy for the lefties to appease them.
Nate Silver is providing one very important function for the Democrats as are the numerous outlets claiming that the race is still close and that is protecting the downticket races.
Romney’s coattails will be long in many states, also so will the eight or nine out of twelve new republican governors (including my lovely NC’s Gov McCrory). They’ve given up hope on the House, but the Senate is in play. Without liars like Nate Silver (and trust me HE KNOWS BETTER thus he is indeed a BAD ACTOR) the Senate would fall (and probably will anyway) to Republicans.
IMHO the blue states are in peril for Democrats who take for granted that O will win and just won’t get up off the couch to go vote. There isn’t much enthusiasm on the left. CT’s McMahon has a shot, and Scott Brown is leading in MA, for example.
Couple Romney’s increasing popularity with the probability that 3/4 of the governor’s races are going to the Republican – the two tops of the ticket will influence Congressional races in both Houses.
The Cult of Obama cultists will never blame The Won or anybody on the left. Ideology for them trumps everything, which is why the media fails to indict Obama over Benghazi or any of his numerous if less egregious failures.
“Thinking the leftist way” is the only thing that matters to them – achievement – meh – they never measure objectively on anything.
Nate Silver will never be responsible for anything. It will be Romney’s fault – for everything – starting Nov 7.
carmelita… i’m in NC, too… can’t wait to get the pathetic perdue out of office, get mccrory and forest elected along with the republican legislature, and get judge newby re-elected (along with wins in many other important local races)… then maybe we can start undoing the damage the democrats have done to our state over the years… starting with education!
Is it just me, or am I missing something here?
Except for the Silver traffic in polling, I have noticed (at least in my own mind) a decided LACK of any othe poll updates.
Now some of this could be due to the attention that Sandy is getting, but not all attention is diverted to this hurricane/frankenstorm, as time is still made to post Silver’s pronostications on the web.
So why has the other polling gone silent?
Could it be that the numbers for Obama and the Dhimmirats are deteriorating so fast that any mention would start that landslide into the total fear, loathing and blind hatred mode we all know is coming when the Lefties finally see that their Marxist Messiah is going down the tubes?
Come Nov. 7 Bathhouse Barry’s gonna need more bath salts…STAT!
I just refer to is as their “religion”. It’s a matter of voting Dem because it’s emotionally satisfying to them.
Here’s the kind of ads we get out in blueland. Someone is running for local office in Portland. The Democratic ad reads “He said I’m a Republican and I support Republican values”. That’s pretty much the ad. You are supposed to know that this means you cannot cast a vote for this person, no matter what his qualifications may be. We have Rob McKenna running for governor of Washington state. He’s been the state attorney general and he has a record that could be reviewed. The Democratic ads suggest he’s a member of the Tea Party (although there’s nothing to support this.) That’s enough. You are supposed to know that the fact that he is running as a Republican means all sorts of terrible things will happen if he gets elected. Therefore, you must vote for the Democrat and you don’t need to know anything about him other than that.
I don’t know that there’s much hope for these folks, but if they lose enough, they’ll need to learn how to deal with loss.
As much as this is a psychological issue, it is equally important to look at it through lens of ethics and core beliefs. There are very key differences in the minds of conservative leaning people and leftist leaning people that has absolutely nothing to do with any sort of dysfunction or mental irregularity, and everything to do with ingrained ethics.
I do not know this man, Nate Silver, and I will not testify to his character. However I know an entire family of left leaning people and I know an entire family of conservative people. While yes, there are segments and exceptions to every point I make, these are my general observations.
I am only going to hit the bullet points here, as I do not have the time to write out the whole essay. If someone would like an entire essay written out, let me know and I will gladly state my positions as I can be very long winded when it comes to human observation which is my favorite activity outside sports and drawing cartoons.
One last disclaimer: THESE ARE GENERALIZATIONS. ONE SIZE DOES NOT FIT ALL. However, they will probably be fairly accurate.
Leftist Family
1) The church of “rationalization”. Lefties can rationalize ANYTHING and this is one of their most dangerous qualities. From breaking laws, violence, cheating, and murder of the unborn as long as they have what they feel a good reason.
2) People are only evolved animals and are no more special than say a cow. However, contradictory to the place of humans in the universe as just evolved animals, they believe people have complete moral authority, but what that is changes from situation to situation.
3) Ethics and morality is based solely on “feelings”. This is internal accountability, which is impossible because ALL HUMANS have a broken moral compass and are subject to the whims of their desires, which brings us back to rationalization. There is NO accountability to truth or law (except for when they are caught and the police come knocking on their door). Therefore lying or (insert any awful thing) is no big deal as long as they get their desired results and don’t get caught. This is what I call the church of ME! (Sound like any sitting president you know of?)
4) This is terrifying, but the most liberal idea out there is that the end justifies the means, which is a major theme of the communist manifesto (hilarious and ridiculous read if you’re interested. It explains the source of the entire warped mindset of the lefty).
5) Without a higher power to believe in lefties place their hopes and dreams in man, who is very fallible and prone to failure. This results in bitter disappointment that tends to permeate into all aspects of life, especially when it comes to political figures. (ie Obama and the vengeful left)
Conservative family
1) They have established and organized beliefs in any religion or set moral code. This cuts out any possibility for rationalization, except when consciously sinning, because frankly, despite our best efforts, we all mess up. They key though, is KNOWING that you messed up and trying not to do it again.
2) They believe people are blessed above the animals and have inherent responsibilities with that include dominion over the planet and it’s creatures (true of most all religions not just Christians). People are not the be all end all on truth and morality because of their faith in a higher power that created man and all the creatures.
3) They have ethics based on law and divine rules. (External accountability to a divine source that is infallible). These laws and protections are required to be extend to all people regardless of beliefs or relationship. If you have to break a law to get what you want, or sin against God by hurting your fellow man to get what you want, you have done something very wrong.
4) The end DOES NOT justify the means. They will not cheat to win anything. They will not kill unless they are endangered. There is nothing in this world so important that it would be worth selling their soul and dignity for. (granted, we all suck at life, and often fail at this, but once again for the conservative IT’S ALL ABOUT KNOWING THEY DID WRONG AND BEING ACCOUNTABLE.)
5) All hopes and dreams are placed in an infallible God and while people can be disappointed by men, they do not fully invest in them. When men fail, it’s just proof that you should not place the fate of your life, family, or soul into man’s dirty hands.
End conclusion, when people believe in nothing they are prone to believe in ANYTHING. Fake messiahs, insane self worth, money, as well as the lies and delusions created in their own minds to shield them from the truth. Which is EXACTLY what you see going on with all these leftist burying their heads in the sand as their messiah leads them into ruin and as the election results come in rebuking his lies and failures.
I pray that every reader here believes in something. I don’t care what religion or belief system, just BELIEVE so your heart cannot be swayed by the lies and deceit of foolish men. When you establish where your line in the sand is, you will not cross it for anything.
NON-OBJECTIVE STATEMENT SECTION:
I personally suggest Jesus, because he’s more like a concrete wall than a simple line
He’s good to lean on when you’re spiritually exhausted, and will provide a strong barrier against those who try to get you ignore your ethics in the face of temptations to our greedy human hearts.
GO MITTENS! <<— I know this is used as an insult by some people, but I love it. Makes me think of kittens in mittens, which is roughly how non-offensive Mitt is
Just found the link to this from Instapundit. Cool map link
Kevin –
I seems obvious to me that Nate Silver is simply the illegitimate son of “Tommy Flanagan, The Pathological Liar’. Take a look at the photo of Flanagan here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jon_Lovitz
and the family resemblance, down to the smile, is unmistakable.
Wasn’t it Nate Silver who thought Republicans would take about 53 or so seats in the house in 2010?
Went to the Facebook page of “Left Leaning Liberal Ladies” last night…..an unreal experience, believe me. Of course, they were all gaga over how their “President” had been so forceful in his news conference regarding Sandy. How good he was going to do with FEMA and how that horrible Romney was just getting in the way by sending the bus with things to help.
BUT, they were all “hoping” he would win. Then a lot of stuff about Tagg and the voting machines, how Republicans always cheated and stole votes.
One of them was angry about Chris Matthews and how he was acting. Said he had been different for the past few weeks.
Think they will be angry at the news people because they did not do enough telling voters how good the 44th is. And of course we are all racists!
Check out the latest from Ulstermann: http://theulstermanreport.com/2012/10/30/white-house-insider-obama-campaign-declares-gonna-shove-this-storm-up-romneys-ass-whi/
The lefties are convinced if Romney wins it is because of the voting machines they placed in battleground states which will steal the election.
They are incredibly stupid and cannot realize that too many caucasians who are middle class left the democrat party and will not vote for Obama again. Myself included, I am NO longer an Obamanut. I figured him out within 6 months of his term. I turned big time after reading numerous books and became active on the internet stating facts I learned and citing the sources.
It is incredible that the few left defending him resort to nonsense like the voting machines and John Heilemann even wrote an article on sunday blaming project orca as voter suppression. They are on crazy talking mode right now and it will get worse.
Am I the only one who is actually concerned about the mental health of the left once Obama loses? They seem to be in such deep denial and disconnect from reality that I am scared for their mental health. I mean at this point 4 years ago I had already accepted the fact McCain had no shot, I was slightly delusional on hoping somehow he could turn it around but the thing I was most angry about was being destroyed in the technology aspect. The Republican party was still using a 1980′s turnout and GOTV model while Obama was using Facebook and Twitter. Now we will be able to monitor those areas to see how big the Leftist meltdown is.
The nickname “Baghdad Bob” is already taken. Can we just refer to Nate Silver as “Chicago Charlie,” or something like that?
An earlier commenter had it right- there will be no professional consequences for Chicago Charlie. He’ll say afterwards that he found a flaw in his model after the election, or whatever.
And, this is shaping out like to be after the 2004 elections with all this focus on Ohio. The left will have renewed hatred for the Buckeye State, and will try to force “reform” issues on the voters as a referendum next year (they did in 2005, and are trying it again already now). In 2004, however, the tolerant and non-racist left blamed the black man (Ken Blackwell). In 2012, they won’t have a black man to blame for their loss.
You think Nate Silver is bad, Las Vegas bookmakers are giving 2-1 against Romney. (Bet now and make a fortune.) The legal betting shops in the UK are just as bad. And some guy named Sam Wong at Princeton is showing 90% probablility of Obama winning. Typical eghead dreamers. And we all know the Las Vegas oddsmakers are under the control of Harry Reid.
I am not a big O’Reilly show fan but while it was on last night I happened to hear Alan Colmes mention Nate Silver during his segment with his sister-in-law. I wasnt close enough to the tee-vee to hear exactly what he said but had to laugh when I heard him mention that name! It was just like what was predicted on this site!
Nate was a 2008 J-urinal-lister and I’m sure he’s still a tea-room
J-urinal-lister at the New Dork Times.
Wow, this post got quiet. Where’d everybody go?