RESEARCH AND ANALYTICAL HELP: Absentee balloting coast to coast
We need your help to flesh out something. This is an instance where our curiosity’s been piqued and our gut tells us there’s an important lesson here, but we don’t know what the end result on a study of this will be.
In an earlier thread today, we took a look at a Cleveland Plain Dealer article reporting on absentee ballot requests (where Republicans have a net 10% lead in ballots being requested in the top three largest counties in the state, all of which are Democrat strongholds).
Our weakness in life is numbers: none of us here are engineers, mathematicians, statisticians, etc.
But we’re wondering if some of you who are analytical like this (such as our own Chrissy-the-Hyphenated) can help us look at statewide absentee ballot requests and see if the trend in those three Ohio counties is actually being extrapolated throughout not just the entirety of the Buckeye State, but coast to coast as well.
Can we get absentee ballot request data by party breakdown through 9/30/10 for all 50 states in total, or do we need to do this by a county-by-county breakdown. If the latter’s the case, then we should focus on getting the results for the rest of Ohio’s counties and look at this one state to see just how far ahead (if they’re really ahead) Republicans are in these absentee ballot requests.
We also need someone to help us figure out what relation absentee ballot voting has in regards to the ultimate winner of the election: ie, how do the absentee ballot request totals for each party jive with the ultimate win/loss for each party when the election results are finalized. Did the party that requested the most absentee votes, by percentage of party ID, really end up winning? Is a lead in absentee ballot requests truly indicative of momentum? Does the party with the higher percentage of absentee ballot requests REALLY win the election?
If you are a lurker, this is a great opportunity for you to immensely advance our cause and start joining in the comments (or emailing us if you don’t want to be public). We need your expertise, and your research skills.
Use the thread in comments to help us start putting the pieces to this puzzle together…like a bunch of bees all across the country bringing the pollen back to the hive to we can, together, pool it all together into delicious honeyed knowledge.
If these trends are all bad for Democrats, then you won’t get any of these answers in the media.
The Republican Party is too stupid to even get an inkling it should be looking at this stuff.
That leaves it up to us, again, to do the grunt work and research that no one else wants to.
There’s SOMETHING there with all this. We can feel it…and just need your help getting at it.
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Will do all I can do to help. Just need your direction.
Oh Why, Oh Why Oh So Angry in Ohio? By MEGAN THEE-BRENAN
EXCERPT: “Ohioans are more angry with the goings-on in Washington than are Americans on the whole. And they aren’t much more pleased with the way things are going in their home state, according to a poll released Tuesday by The New York Times and CBS News. Three-quarters of Ohioans said they were dissatisfied (47 percent) or angry (29 percent) with the way things are going in Washington. Fewer said they were satisfied (18 percent) or enthusiastic (3 percent).”
Read more at
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/09/28/oh-why-oh-why-oh-so-angry-in-ohio/
So 3% are clearly insane.
Obviously, and they ALL live in Cuyahoga County and are being prosecuted for corruption.
That would be the commissioners and all their friends along with a couple of judges. Did I mention they’re all Democrats?
I can’t wait to see some of the results you get. I will tell you that Marco Rubio has sent me a gazillion emails and texts with an easy button to click on to order your absentee ballot. I plan on early voting in a polling place right near my work, so I don’t use the absentee ballot thing. Although I must admit, they make me nervous…probably more superstitious than anything else but ever since all those absentee ballots were found in the back of some car that gave Al Franken the election, I just don’t trust them. And yes, I know the military uses them…that’s fine…they have no choice.
I just don’t understand why the military can’t get its absentee ballots counted before they send them in. I worry about partisan (Democrat) skullduggery in the counting-houses back home, with no way to check on it. Seems this would counter some of it.
The lassies got the same text messages the past week.
Are you in one of the counties mentioned in our post below? We are going to try and get absentee numbers for Leon County this afternoon. Would you like to split up the counties and check on a few too with us?
No, I’m in Osceola (Kissimmee) and we are pretty much conservatives here although we have A LOT of Puerto Ricans which honestly could go either way…depends on how aware they are.
But keep me posted on what is going on in our fair state.
I will see what I can do here in central LA. Early voting took place 2 weeks ago, but I don’t know when the absentee voting takes/took place. LA traditionally has been a Democratic state, but many have switched parties, or vote for Republicans or independents. The local voter registration office may balk at giving out any information such as what you They may not have the time to get the info for me.
Sorry, a sentence did not get finished! I meant to type “such as what you want”.
One point to be made about absentee balloting is that it captures the voter momentum that exists IN THAT MOMENT.
Meaning, if there is some late-breaking October Surprise, it will be too late for the percentage of voters who have already cast their vote.
Since you couldn’t ask for better momentum than Republican, Conservative and Tea Party candidates have right now, it’s all to the good.
Here is info for San Diego County in California absentee “vote by mail”. Vote by mail voter turnout can be found a: http://www.sdcounty.ca.gov/voters/Eng/reports/Voter_Turnouts.pdf There is info from November 1999 through January 2010.
Here’s info on the registration, by party, for tge county. It’s broken down by district. http://www.sdcounty.ca.gov/voters/Eng/reports/current_reg_report.pdf
FYI-This info comes from the San Diego County Registrar of Voters.
Okay, I will find out if I can get exact numbers from the GOP office I’m volunteering at.
And numbers aren’t my forte either, so hopefully someone who is a math whiz can help us out with this.
Just got off the phone with the elections lady for Escambia county.
She states that there is a huge spike in the request for absentee ballots this year — 16,000 are going out in the mail tomorrow.
As well, there have been more requests for extended polling hours because alot of people have called and stated that the only day they have off work in this economy working two jobs is Sunday, so there will be early voting 2 weeks prior to the election on 2 Saturdays and 1 Sunday to accomodate those voters.
She also said that this year there is a huge interest … many people who have been registered voters for years, but have never voted, are making sure that they vote this year.
Also … Escambia county apparently does have poll watchers and scrutineers … their counting room has windows open on all sides for the public to view if they want … members of the public who are concerned and welcome to come view the process, tabulation and all statistics of number of ballots mailed vs returned, etc.
But she confirmed this year EXTREME interest in voting and predicts well above average returns.
Sorry, Escambia County, Fl in the Florida panhandle bordering Alabama. Registered voters are 47% R, 44% D, district is approx 24% AA and heavily military due to Pensacola Naval Air Station, Corry Station and Naval Hospital which treats a lot of retirees in the area in addition to AD.
We are going to pull numbers from Ion Sancho’s office over here in Tallahassee. Leon county is dem territory and if republican requests are up, that would be a huge sign.
The lassies know for sure there was a higher turnout in Leon County for this years 2010 primary than for the presidential preference primary in 2008 or the regular primary in 2008. In Florida House District 9 there were 4000 more republicans that participated in that district alone when compared with 2008.
Other Florida Counties to look at… St. John’s, Pinelles, Orange, and Miami-Dade. Basically they took care of pensacola by looking at escambia. Leon is Tallahassee. The rest would cover Jacksonville, Orlando, Tampa, and Miami. We could also see how broward county is running.
(ft. lauderdale/boca raton area)
We will get you this information. We know it is not easily available on a statewide basis. The local county supervisors have a lot of control.
We know here in Tallahassee we are having more republican participation than ever and the Key to beating Nancy Pelosi’s Lap Dog Allen Boyd is getting the republicans out in Tallahassee.
We know that absentee requests for the primary were up among republicans we just want to get you percentages.
Races are decided during absentee and early voting! We need to start mobilizing more and more. If you live in a red district call a campaign in one of SarahPac targeted districts and ask if you can make phone calls!
So goes Florida and Ohio… Tallahassee Absentee Ballots have already dropped. We should be able to get the bulk of numbers to you guys tonight.
Montana does not require party affiliation for voter registration, so there’s no way to know by party who is requesting absentee ballots. We’ve been gradually moving towards all mail-in elections (Montana in November can be brutal!!!) and every elections sees a higher percentage of absentee ballots than the one before it. This fall will be no different, I’m sure.
While there may be some attempts a voter fraud on the mail-in ballots, I think the real concern is still some form of ballot-box stuffing at the polls on elections day.
VOLUNTEER TO BE A POLL-WATCHER OR ELECTION JUDGE – ESPECIALLY IN CRITICAL PRECINCTS!!!!!
Guys, I have to vote by absentee. How do I
find out my rights and public information about the results. I hate having to depend on backroom counting but polling places have been shut down permanently here in northern California.
I’d much rather march in and vote and get my sticker. I miss getting the “I voted” sticker.
Is it too early to start wearing my political satire t-shirts every day until election????
I don’t know how to get “everyman” to think about the issues in my little, slow community!
You should call the Town Clerk’s office or the Registrar’s Office of your town. Both of those offices should have people in them with the knowledge to tell you how to get an absentee ballot. There may be a requirement to show ID.
There may be a time limit that you must meet in order for the ballot to be mailed to your home and time enough for you to mail it back. If you want an absentee ballot, don’t delay in asking for one, even if you have to wait until a certain date before they can send them out. The Secretary of State’s office has to print them, first, I think.
Gentle-people,
I have time to help with this and computer skills, to boot.
I would expect that you would need a county-by-county breakdown, because I am not sure that states update that data more than once a year. I have voted absentee for the last three years and, sometimes wonder if it is being counted. But it is convenient.
I am in California right now, but plan to be traveling across the USA for the next 2-3 months doing photography. Something I wanted to do with DH, who passed away last Oct. Will be blogging the pics. Ergo, have a laptop and nifty modem-thingy/air-card. Woo-Hoo! The joys of technology.
Let me know how I can help you.
Hey, post your travels on the open thread whenever it suits you! We’d love to get a peek at what you’re doing … care to share your blog link? I’m sorry about the loss of your DH. My brother was first a military and then, after retirement, nature and commercial photographer. He and his wife traveled for years in a 5th wheel, enjoying the country and taking photos.
I will post as allowed by the folks here. For the days I don’t, I started a blog for the trip.
http://tandttravels.blogspot.com
Hope the HB folks are okay with me posting this here.
I have voted absentee for years because 1) I used to travel and didn’t want to miss my opportunity to vote because I was out-of-state for work 2)then my kids were little and it was too hard to take them with me 3) and now because I want to investigate thoroughly the people I vote for.
Too often there are propositions or judges on a local level, that I know nothing about. I love having the time to read up them on the internet and make an informed decision.
The only thing that concerns me now, is voter fraud. I worry that my vote will not be counted here in Arizona. That it will be tossed because I am a registered Republican. Do you think I need to be concerned about this?
Ookay – I am mistaken. Here is the CA data:
http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/ror/ror-pages/60day-gen-10/county.pdf
http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/sov/2010-primary/pdf/05-historical-voter-reg-primary-06082010.pdf
Historical Vote-By-Mail Ballot Statistics
If you voted by mail, you can find out if your ballot was received by your county elections official. Some county elections officials can also tell you if your ballot was counted, something they are required to do for everyone who casts a provisional ballot in an election. To find out if your county elections office provides this service, please visit our Check Status of My Ballot page.
Historical Vote-By-Mail (Absentee) Ballot Use in California
http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/hist_absentee.htm
Registered Permanent Vote-By-Mail Statistics 1992 to 2010*
http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/vote-by-mail/pvmb-voter-survey-1992-2010.xlshttp://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/vote-by-mail/pvmb-voter-survey-1992-2010.xls
Vote-By-Mail Statistics 2003 to 2010*
http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/vote-by-mail/vbm-2003-2010.xls
*Please note these numbers were provided by the individual county elections offices. Because not all counties provided information, no complete statewide data is available.
I have heard several pollsters, and I think Rove, mention the momentum on Republican absentee voting. So the GOP is well aware.
Lassie update:
Leon County (First) Absentee Ballot Drop:
R- 6,658 42.4%
D- 9,287 59.2%
O- 1,702 10.8%
T- 15,697 100%
Returned so far (note, not all of the total requests have been mailed so these numbers are slightly less because we are measuring the returned amount against the ones that have been actually mailed and we considered actually received to be able to be filled out)
R- 683 or 11.6%
D- 891 or 10.7%
O- 143 or 09.7%
T- 1717 or 32.0%
We know that about 3,200 Republicans requested an absentee primary ballot. so we have double the amount requested for the general election.
We also want you to compare the amount of registered voters in each party with amount of absentee ballots requested (we think this is the most telling sign)
D: 94,139 = 09.7%
R: 46,586 = 14.3%
O: 26,352 = 06.5%
So here in Leon County we have more registered democrats. 56% to Republicans 27.9 % but on a percentage basis there is more interest in the republican party in requesting absentee ballots by 5% more. and if you add the republican and “others” together it’s nearly 21% of the requests which is twice the amount of the democrats. If the independents are leaning our way this cycle (and we humbly think so) It could be great. However, Here in leon county the numbers are so skewed that it would be impossible to predict landslide republican victory.
However it seems republican interest is higher.
We hope this helps you guys!
~Lassies
Lassie, please confirm
D = Democrat
R = Republican
O = Other
T = ?
T= Totals
We didn’t total out the last set of information. We are sorry for adding to confusion. But that is because we put the raw number of registered party voters against absentee requests.
It is amazing that in a county as democrat as Leon the republicans have more interest in absentee voting! Don’t get us wrong. It’s a great sign! In counties that have more even amounts of registered democrats and republicans these numbers would show republicans running away. But on a county wide basis since republicans are outnumbered 2 to 1 even if 5% more republicans are turning out or showing interest, that doesn’t close the gap. But it’s a strong sign for the overall national picture that in such a heavy Dem county there are more moderates and republicans requesting ballots. It shows enthusiasm and the lassies are ready to flip Leon Red!
I live in Washington state.90% of us vote by mail.They have done away with polling places.Saves money.We can register by picking up an application almost anywhere,fill it out and send it in.No room for fraud there!In 2004 I think Seattle had more dead people,than alive,vote.Maybe that’s why we are called a blue state.
When do democrats and republicans start voting for the independent candidates?
Funny you should bring this up, after leaving the phone bank last Monday evening, the person in charge shared with me that the requests for GOP absentees was up significantly compared to previous elections…I’ll see what I can find out.
From my MPA class in 2009, I learned that allowing no-excuse absentee voting has a statistically insignificant effect on an election.
As a former City Clerk employee, I can tell you that the EMPLOYEES (as in, not $150 per day election workers) handle the processing of absentee ballots and this is a safer process than standard voting because you have 100% completely-trained employees who rely on their jobs for income handling absentee ballots. If we were smart, we’d encourage absentee voting.
It’s a very safe procedure. You should be more worried about people who show up at the polls without identification.
I asked one of the guys at the state GOP office in Albuquerque, and he said he won’t have final numbers until October 5, but he did say that the GOP requests for absentee ballots are significantly higher than in 2008. Currently, the GOP requests are about 3-4% higher than the Dems, which is unusual because it’s usually the reverse.
I don’t understand why people are so willing to trust the absentee ballot process when there is such skullduggery even with the “live, immediate, election day” ballots, when it’s a more public event.
2008 in Minnesota was sickening…as they kept finding strange bunches of ballots until the diaper boy was elected.
Personally, I wouldn’t vote absentee unless I absolutely had no other way to vote. It makes me a little sick to think about my ballot just laying around in some office for weeks before the election, not knowing whether the people responsible for it are doing their jobs. Paranoid, I guess.
What they need to do is allow voting on two consecutive weekends…one Saturday, one Sunday.
There’s no excuse for you to not be able to vote and claim you are out of town.
OR have voting go from 6am until 6am the next day for a 24 hour period. There’s no excuse for you not being able to get there AT SOME POINT during the day.
The only absentee allowed should be for disabled people unable to get out of bed…and they should need a judge to sign off on allowing them to do things by mail.
Not to mention my state has early voting which is REALLY convenient. It takes place in plenty of different locations for like 2 weeks before the election date. Because it’s spread out over two weeks, it’s not as croweded. I voted in the primary at a little library near my office and NO one was in there. Just a bunch of very nice retired Disneyphiles that likely live in Stepford…I’m mean Celebration.
I love early voting. They started early voting in Louisiana in the last couple of years.
Boyz
We have early voting down here in Florida, like gatormom mentioned. For 13 continous days before the election. So starting on monday two weeks before election tuesday you can vote mon-sun-mon-friday. They have the weekend off right before the election so they can prepare the precincts. Early voting is just in a few centralized precincts. Having one sunday is bad enough, the Obots use organizing for america buses to bring people to the polls. That’s how Obama won Florida in 2008. So there are upsides and down sides.
We would love to see early voting start at your precinct the friday before until tuesday 7pm on election day. 5 days to vote including weekend times.
Leon County had a nearly 80% turnout in 2008. We always have one the highest in the state because of busing during early voting, our small county have plenty of early voting spots, and the state headquarters for both parties are here in Tallahassee.
I would encourage anyone who still has vacation days left to use one for Election Day. I plan on working for local candiates in any manner they wish, including being a poll watcher.
Don’t forget to offer your services to the candidates. They need people to stand outside the polling places and also to place calls to people who have not voted by a certain time, such as noon. The more eyes watching the process, the less likely it will be that the process will be corrupted.