Tennessee Guerilla Women made a good catch with a comment by James Carville this weekend.
Obama is afraid to do a Michigan re-vote because he is scared and doesn’t win big states. HillBuzz cannot figure out how the Democratic Party’s Super Delegates, the protectors and elders of our party, could believe that we will win in November if Obama is the nominee. He wins small states and caucus states.
This weekend, HillBuzz broke down the numbers and predicted the General Election outcome if Obama turns out to be the nominee. Numbers were based on the state of the Primary race and past General Election trends.
If the Democratic Primary were the General Election, HillBuzz calculates Hillary as coming out way ahead against Obama. We figure Michigan and Florida into the equation because, unlike the Obama camp, we believe in a 50 state strategy over a 48 state strategy. The points on the board so far would give Hillary a big Ad-In:
- Obama – 217 Electoral Votes (won 29 states & territories – around 10 caucus wins)
- Clinton – 263 Electoral Votes (won 17 states & territories)
We need 270 to win the nomination. The problem with Obama’s math is, we wonder how he expects to win states that he lost to Clinton against McCain? Our guess, from the Democrats for McCain sites popping up every day, that these Democrats yearn for experience in the White House. Experience is something that can’t be bought with Ad time.
HillBuzz noticed someone talking about this on Hillaryis44.com today:
When the Democratic Party loses the center, it loses the General Election.
The 1972 McGovern nomination was a DISASTER: the liberal elite and media pushing a candidate the center of the party did not support.
In 1980, Carter lost “the Reagan Democrats” who left the party and did not return until Bill Clinton in 1992.
In 1984 and 1988, the Democrats STILL didn’t learn, and didn’t run as centrists, and the Democrats DIDN’T WIN.
In the 1950s, Adlai Sevenson ran TWICE as the darling of the “hugely liberal, anti-war intelligentsia”.
If Barack Obama is the Democratic nominee in 2008, the Democrats will lose the centrists again — who will form Democrats for McCain.
Obama will have the support of the liberal elite and the media, but will lose the center, and will spawn Democrats for McCain in droves.
The Mainstream Media is pretending Obama put the Jeremiah Wright controversy behind him.
There are real and legitimate concerns that Jeremiah Wright’s insane rantings will doom Obama in a General Election matchup with McCain. The voters in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Indiana, South Dakota, and others are watching.
For some perspective on the drubbing Democrats could take in 2008 if Obama is the nominee, HillBuzz looked at the past 9 elections and the Electoral College outcomes:
Bush = 286 (won FL, IN, OH, NV, NM)
Kerry = 251 (won MI, MN, IA)
Bush = 271 (won FL, OH, NV)
Gore = 266 (won IN, NM, MN, MI, IA)
Clinton = 379 (won OH, FL, MI, MN, IA, NM, NV, PA)
Dole = 159 (won IN, VA)
Clinton = 370 (won OH, PA, MN, NM, NV)
Bush = 168 (won IN, FL)
Bush = 426 (won MI, OH, IN, FL, NM, NV)
Dukakis = 112 (won IA, MN)
Reagan = 525
Mondale = 13 (won only MN)
Reagan = 489 (won MI, IN, FL, OH, NV. NM)
Carter = 49 (won MN)
Carter = 297 (won FL, OH, MN, PA)
Ford = 240 (won IN, IA. MI, NM, NV)
McGovern: 17 (won only MA)
HillBuzz wondered who would win in a matchup between John McCain and Barack Obama in the fall of 2008. So, we pulled all the recent polls and also paid attention to the following formula we’ve found to be especially convincing:
* For Obama to win the Electoral College, he needs to pull 70% of the Latino vote, 100% of the black vote, and 37% of the white vote. He also needs to hold onto the majority of Hillary Clinton supporters.
* Obama needs to win New Mexico, Ohio, Minnesota, and Michigan to win the Presidency.
The above seems unlikely.
HillBuzz believes the Electoral College will breakdown this way, in a McCain-Obama matchup:
McCain wins = 341 ECV
Alabama: 9 ECV
Alaska: 3 ECV
Arizona: 10 ECV
Arkansas: 6 ECV
Colorado: 9 ECV
Florida: 27 ECV
Georgia: 15 ECV
Idaho: 4 ECV
Indiana: 11 ECV
Iowa: 7 ECV
Kentucky: 8 ECV
Louisiana: 9 ECV
Michigan: 17 ECV
Minnesota: 10 ECV
Mississippi: 6 ECV
Missiouri: 11 ECV
Montana: 3 ECV
Nebraska: 3 ECV
Nevada: 5 ECV
New Jersey: 15 ECV
New Mexico: 5 ECV
North Carolina: 15 ECV
Ohio: 20 ECV
North Dakota: 3 ECV
Oklahoma: 7 ECV
Pennsylvania: 21 ECV
South Carolina: 8 ECV
South Dakota: 3 ECV
Tennessee: 11 ECV
Texas: 34 ECV
Utah: 5 ECV
Virginia: 13 ECV
West Virginia: 5 ECV
Wyoming: 3 ECV
Obama wins = 197 ECV
California: 55 ECV
Connecticut: 7 ECV
Delaware: 3 ECV
Hawaii: 4 ECV
Illinois: 21 ECV
Maine: 4 ECV
Maryland: 10 ECV
Massachusetts: 12 ECV
Kansas: 6 ECV
Nebraska: 2 ECV
New Hampshire: 4 ECV
New York: 31 ECV
Oregon: 7 ECV
Rhode Island: 4 ECV
Vermont: 3 ECV
Washington: 11 ECV
Wisconsin: 10 ECV
Washington DC: 3 ECV
(1) McCain wins Michigan and Florida, in large part, because of Obama’s efforts to disenfranchise Michigan and Florida primary voters. 25% of Florida Democrats have stated they will not support Obama in the fall if the Florida primary does not count towards the nomination. Similar sentiment exists in Michigan.
(2) McCain’s Latino support carries Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado.
(3) McCain carries Minnesota with the help of Governor Pawlenty
(4) McCain wins Virginia, which had been leaning Democratic, because he is the stronger national security candidate
(5) There is a real chance McCain could also win California, with Governor Schwarzenegger campaigning for him, and Latinos switching over to vote for McCain. In that event, the final Electoral College numbers would be: McCain-402 v. Obama-136
HillBuzz notices a real disconnect between the MSM (mainstream media) and regular people regarding Jeremiah Wright and people’s reactions to Obama’s speech.
This disconnect will cost the Democrats the White House in the fall if Obama is the nominee.
The real question is not what the talking heads on Meet the Press or Chris Matthews say, but what voters are thinking in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Indiana.
HillBuzz saw this in a comment section online and thought we’d pass it on. We encourage EVERYONE to speak up in comments sections all over the internet.
I’m tired of being dismissed in this race as old white woman, or an
old coot. I’ve talked to collage age voters who seem to think Obama
can fire congress and the senate to make things change. I can
understand people flocking to his speeches, and realize how much we need change
in this country, but I’m tired of political pundits telling me how to
think and vote. What is this change, and how will come about?? I’m
concerned about the issues, and am tired of hearing about race. Right
now it sounds like there will be riots if Obama loses. He is throwing
as much at Hillary as he gets. It seems that no matter what comes from
the Clintons it’s racist. I like Obama, but am concerned about his
wife. She will bring her influence to the white house as well. What
will happen if he loses in the general?? Do they not realize that what
they’ve seen so far is childs play? This is one of the tamest
campaigns I’ve seen since the 60’s. I doubt if the republicans will
back down everytime the Obama campaign cries foul/racist. I keep
hearing that African Americans will withold votes if things don’t go
their way. Now that’s really democratic!! I never hear the pundits say
Hillary supporters may do the same. Maybe “old white coots” understand
the danger of tearing our country apart.
One of Obama’s favorite things to say is that Automatic Delegates (which Obama calls Superdelegates) need to vote how their state constituents voted. Bill Richardson endorsed Obama, even though his state, New Mexico, voted for Hillary Clinton. The same is true for Devel Patrick, Ted Kennedy, and John Kerry in Massachusetts (although personally, HillBuzz would not want John Kerry anywhere near a presidential campaign, thank you very much).
HillBuzz was curious and sat down this Saturday to determine what the numbers would look like if ALL Automatic Delegates endorsed the candidate who won their state. The result: Hillary Clinton wins the Automatic Delegates decidedly.
Here’s the Automatic Delegate breakdown:
* States and territories voting so far (as of 3/22/08) = Clinton 346, Obama 309
AR = 12
AS = 6
AZ = 10
CA = 65
FL = 23
MA = 26
MI = 27
NH = 7
NJ = 18
NM = 11
NV = 8
NY = 45
OH = 19
OK = 10
RI = 11
TN = 17
TX = 31
AL = 8
AK = 4
CO = 14
CT = 11
DE = 7
GA = 13
HI = 8
ID = 4
IL = 27
IA = 11
KS = 8
LA = 9
ME = 7
MD = 27
MN = 14
MS = 6
MO = 14
NE = 6
SC = 8
UT = 5
VA = 16
VT = 7
WA = 17
DC = 23
WI = 16
WY = 5
Dems Abroad = 8
VI = 6
Here’s what it looks like if you include the upcoming states (based on current polls):
Clinton 408, Obama 365
IN = 12
KY = 7
MT = 8
ND = 7
NC = 17
OR = 12
PA = 26
SD = 7
WV = 10
Guam = 5
PR = 7