Another blow to Obama’s electability: a study finds that 28% of Clinton supporters would become “Democrats for McCain” because they will not support Barack Obama as the Democratic nominee.
HillBuzz cites this factor in its determination that nominating Obama amounts to handing the election to John McCain in the fall. Obama has serious electability problems that go far beyond the recent scandals involving Jeremiah Wright’s hate speech and Michelle Obama’s foolish remarks on her pride in this country.
Off the top of our head, HillBuzz also recognizes three little-talked about reasons why 28% of Clinton supporters will not vote for Obama in the fall:
(1) His campaign, while attracting new people who have never been involved in elections before, severely alienates core Democrats who will abandon the party if Obama is the nominee. The Democratic nominee needs to be the person who attracts the most core Democrats, the people who have financially supported this party their whole lives, the people who will be there after the Obama candidacy, and Obamania, is over (think McGovern-mania and its aftermath). Alienating the blue collar, working class, dyed in the wool Democrats who support Clinton for the sake of pandering to the “Obama Generation” is political folly. When the Obamaniacs move on to the next fad in their lives, where will the Democratic party be? Shunting party loyalists for a relatively small percentage of new political participants benefits Obama, and Obama alone, but even that just in the nomination battle. He might win the nomination, but will lose the General to McCain. Afterwards, who will be there to pick up the party? Don’t count on blue collar Clinton supporters in places like Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, or Florida to do that, Mr. Dean. Once they leave the party, these Democrats for McCain will be on Democratic hiatus for an election cycle or two. Can either modern political party endure if it loses 4-5 elections in a row? Obama could change American politics, indeed: by making Democrats go the way of the Whigs and the dodo.
(2) Obama’s campaign, and the Obamas themselves, are hostile to both Clinton and Clinton supporters. Michelle Obama famously quipped, “I’d have to think about it” when asked if she would support Hillary Clinton in the fall when she wins the nomination instead of Obama. A Democratic candidate shouldn’t have to think about the answer to this: Hillary Clinton fully intends to support Obama if he would win this race. She puts the good of the party over her own interests and, we are sure, the profound disappointment that manifests in losing a race this close. But, Hillary Clinton knows this is what a Democrat must do. However, the Obamas are very much about the Obamas and the Obama campaign is very much about how wonderful the Obama campaign is. Obama brands himself as leader of the “Obama Movement” and not the Democratic Party. He invites people to “come to Obama” and make their “conversion” into his movement: not join the Democratic Party. This cult of personality fills stadiums, but doesn’t establish long term ties to the Democratic Party. Once again, support for Obama is fleeting — and Obama knows this. Hence, the desire to bully the press into declaring this nomination settled before Florida and Michigan can weigh in on matters they have a vested interest in weighing in on. Obama knows he will lose those big states. The more he loses, the less rabid his young fans are. Obama fatigue sets in.
And where are the Democrats left then? Obama’s young supporters are consistently hostile to Clinton supporters, who have, as a rule, been Democrats longer than the Obama people have been alive. Here at HillBuzz, on all of our trips to other states canvassing for Clinton, Obama supporters have resorted to nasty, sophomoric jibes and insults at every encounter. They push and they shove us. They rip Clinton signs off walls and yank Clinton markers off lawns. They deface Clinton posters and harrass her volunteers. They tell voters wrong polling places and incorrect voting dates. In short, these dedicated Obamaniacs do not realize that, in the end, this is not about Obama. It’s not about Clinton either. It’s about the good of the Democratic Party.
About this, the Obamaniacs couldn’t care less. You hear them chant: O-ba-ma, O-ba-ma, O-ba-ma. They call Clinton a B****, or pejoratives far worse, and that’s when they’re being polite. They insult her looks, pry into her personal life, and gleefully humiliate this sitting Senator and former First Lady of the United States at every available opportunity. Obama supporters treat Clinton worse than any Republican ever has – and the enormity of that statement makes all of us at HillBuzz cringe. Is it any wonder Clinton supporters would abandon Obama for McCain? HillBuzz was invited to meet Senator McCain when he was in Chicago a few weeks back and, we must say, he was an incredible American to meet. His charms are great and, unlike Obama, John McCain is the real deal. No smoke and mirrors, no Hopium, no delusions of grandeur conjured upon the thinnest of resumes. Most importantly of all, both John McCain and his supporters respect Hillary Clinton. They may not like her. They may not think, as Republicans, that she should be our next president. But they respect her. And, thus, in return Hillary Clinton supporters respect John McCain, whether they like him or think he would be the best president or not.
And, it appears, when push comes to shove and the thought of Doomsday decisions comes to mind, these Hillary Clinton supporters realize there is an awful lot more to like in John McCain than there is in Barack Obama.
(3) And, lastly, another important reason Hillary Clinton supporters will not support Barack Obama for president is that, HillBuzz believes, a large part of Obama’s support is based upon a Mainsream Media-Manufactured Potemkin Village. Obama’s recent speech on race is a perfect example of this: the media elite praised this speech, dubbing Obama the new Lincoln. Chris Matthews and his ilk rolled around on the floor, like so many little piggies in the mud of Obama, reveling in every word from their plastic pope of hope. The media declared a flat, disconnected teleprompter-assisted reading of a mediocre political speech peer to the greatest orations in the history of this nation. The Mainstream Media is in puppy love: it’s making the mistake we all have made, picking the wrong guy to fall head over heels for. He’s the new transfer student in school from somewhere farflung and exotic. You may not know his name, so you invent a nickname in your head. “Dublin”, maybe, because the first time you saw him he wore a magical green emerald shirt with puffy white letters spelling “Dublin” on the front. You wondered if he might be Irish and decided he had to be, because he seemed Irish and you love the Irish. You’ve never spoken to him, but imagine he’d have the most melodious lilt to his strong baritone voice. He’s probably a singer too, and a good one. Athletic as well, just look at that strong chest and those muscular arms, all the better to carry you away in, or get carried away in. And carried away you are, indeed, because when you finally meet this guy, your Tiger Beat dreamboat, his name is Eugene, from Dubuque, Iowa, who hates St. Patrick’s Day, hates music, and, most horrifically, belongs to the Trinity United Church of Christ, as spiritually advised by the Reverand Jeremiah Wright.
You were wrong about him. As the media is wrong about Obama. But, you know how puppy love plays out. Infatuation leads to obsession. Obsession consumes reason. Judgment atrophies and is replaced completely with a sustained, dull buzzing where common sense used to thrive. Who knows how long you stew in this vegetative state, where others looking in can clearly see the damage you are doing to yourself and those around you. Hopefully, you snap out of it and regain your fac
ulties before it is too late, before you make a mistake you can never take back.
It’s a Meryn Cadell song come to life, this media puppy love with Barack Obama. HillBuzz recognizes it as powerful stuff, as evidenced by Matthews’ rolling around in all that Hopium, and has sense enough to see the danger all this Obamania puts the Democratic Party in.
We hope others wake up and realize it before it’s too late — and before that 28% of Hillary supporters who won’t support Obama are joined by other large percentages of the electorate who also won’t support Obama, because of Wright, because of Michelle Obama’s crass and callousness, because of something as simple, yet jarring, as Obama refusing – REFUSING – to place his hand on his heart during the national anthem.
In the end, the only new and lasting coalition Obama’s candidacy would have created is the motley bunch of unlikely alliances found inside “Democrats for McCain”.
Conventional Wisdom (The CW) believes California is a solidly blue state that Democrats can’t possibly lose in 2008. The CW takes for granted Bill Clinton’s 1992 victory in California, which was the first time in modern history that Democrats won California. Clinton won California again in 1996, and both Gore and Kerry carried California in 2000 and 2004, leading people to write California off as “safely blue”. They forget George Bush the Elder won California in 1988, and Reagan won California in 1984 and 1980.
The CW also laughs off Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger as a novelty and claims most of his support comes from people who thought it would be a lark to elect The Terminator to the governorship of the world’s 4th largest economy. The CW believes Schwarzenegger’s spirited campaigning on behalf of McCain will matter little in 2008. HillBuzz agrees, if Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee. However, a quick look at US Census Data on California proves to HillBuzz that John McCain will beat Barack Obama in California if Obama is the Democratic nominee. Here’s why:
* Obama needs 70% of Latino support, nationally, to beat McCain in the fall. Hillary Clinton wins the Latino vote 2:1. Despite throwing Maria Shriver, Caroline Kennedy, Oprah Winfrey, and the kitchen sink at Hillary Clinton in California, Obama lost the state in a landslide. The Latino community knows Hillary Clinton understands the issues important to them — they are probably the most discerning and thoughtful voters in the electorate. The Latino community is extremely practical and does not vote on emotion: it is not easily swayed by rallies or big speeches. The Latino community votes with its pocketbook and with it’s head. The candidate who wins the Latino vote is, simply, the candidate who will do the most to benefit the Latino community and achieve its chief aims. That candidate is Hillary Clinton. However, if she was not in this race, the next best choice for the Latino community would be John McCain. Congresswoman Maxine Waters famously said her California constituents go to bed with hope and dream about hope and wake up in the morning needed jobs and not a lot of fancy talk that goes nowhere and solves no problems. That’s how the Latino community feels. They don’t need pep rallies, they need a good education for their children, good jobs for their families, and universal healthcare for all. They do not buy the snake oil Barack Obama is selling.
* Looking at the numbers, California has a population of 36,457,549 people, of which approximately 27.5 million are over 18 years of age.
* 50% of Californians are female
* 76.9% are white
* 6.7% are African American
* 12.4% are Asian
* 36% are Latino
* only 27% have a college degree
* median income is $50,000
Based on trends we have seen so far in all contests this primary season, the Latino support Hillary Clinton receives is not influenced by emotion and is rooted firmly in the practical way in which Latinos vote for the most qualified candidate. Looking at their respective resumes and lists of accomplishments, Latinos seem inclined to choose John McCain as their second choice in the 2008, should Hillary Clinton not be on the ballot. McCain consistently pulls 40% of the Latino vote in Arizona – his popularity amongst Latinos in the southwest extends into California.
55% of Latinos supporting Hillary Clinton have told pollsters they would support John McCain if Barack Obama is the Democratic nominee.
Hillary Clinton won close to 70% of Latino voters in California. If 55% of those voters cross over to McCain, and join up with Latinos who would have voted Republican anyway, this spells disaster for Obama in the General Election.
* As Obama loses Latino support, he mathematically needs to increase his share of white voters dramatically to compensate. Can he do this? Based on his performance in the primaries, the answer is no. We have seen the ceiling of Obama’s white support, and this has dropped since the nation at large has become aware of Barack Obama’s church and the Anti-American teachings of his spiritual advisor, Jeremiah Wright. To compensate for the swing of Latino voters to McCain in a general election, Obama would need to win 55% of the white vote in California. This seems unlikely, as 96% of Clinton supporters in the primary said they would only be satisfied with her as the nominee. Without Clinton on the ticket, those people would have to go somewhere, and it won’t be to Obama.
* Then there is the question of what happens with the Asian voters in California, which Clinto also won 2:1 against Obama. While Obama is projected to win close to 100% of the African American vote in a race against McCain, African Americans make up just 6.7% of California’s population. Asian Americans are just over 12%, and 36% are Latino. If Asians feel the same way about their support of Clinton that Latinos do, and if their support is also not automatically transferable to whoever the Democratic nominee is, then Obama is in serious trouble in California. 48% of the population in California is Lation or Asian. 2:1, this combined demographic voted against Obama when it had the chance. McCain is an especially appealling Republican candidate different from the mold of George Bush or Mike Huckabee. He is non-threatening, and all-American. For demographic groups with strong ties to the immigrant community, who see America as a land of promise and take great pride in the hardwork their groups have put into new lives in America, John McCain’s obvious patriotism and love of this country are incredibly appealing.
The GOP will, of course, contrast this with Michelle Obama’s spoiled, thoughtless remark about not being proud of America. Add to that Obama’s silly refusal to wear an American flag pin. Pile on that this devastating video of Obama standing, hands deliberately folded in front of him, while the national anthem plays. And, top it all off with the “God Damn America” ravings of Jeremiah Wright, and you have a recipe for disaster for Obama in California’s two key non-white demographics.
* And the above is not even addressing the issues Obama will have with California women whose dream of seeing the first female president win the White House was shattered by a mismanaged primary season and the exclusion of Florida and Michigan’s votes for Hillary Clinton.
Half the population of California is female. 50%. A great many of them that HillBuzz has heard from maintain they will become Democrats for McCain should Clinton lose to Obama.
This analysis is far from complete and we are sure we’ll receive many further remarks from readers to help us hone this — but we do seriously believe John McCain will beat Obama in California, setting the stage for the biggest rout Democrats have seen since George McGovern in 1972.
We believe the children are our future.
* Note: this, while grating in delivery, is surprisingly catchy.
Don’t get your pom-poms out, you’re not gonna brainwash me!
It must be tough being Michelle Obama. Living in the fabulous Obama Mansion. Making close to $4 million the last few years. A plush job at the University of Chicago Medical Center. And, now, a luxurious vacation in the Virgin Islands. According to Jeremiah Wright, it’s a pretty terrible country we live in – and Michelle Obama has said she’s never been proud of America.
Not even when the Berlin Wall fell, when communism in Europe collapsed – the end of that empty movement built on the back of false hope and omnipresent propaganda, nurtured in meglomania and the cult of personality – the end of the ranting and raving against America and everything it stands for from the likes of petty dictators and assorted fiery lunatics – the end of canned slogans and large-scale staged rallies for the sake of nothing more than canned slogans and large-scale staged rallies.
Nope. Michelle Obama wasn’t proud to see those days end.
HillBuzz loves the Meet Me In Ohio tee shirts we saw all over Akron on our campaign swing through the Buckeye State. We need a good catchphrase for Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Indiana too.
We love Hillary when she gets fired up. She’d be like that every day in the White House. She would beat the special interests and lobbyists into the ground. Those people would have no idea what hit them. She would wear them down…and all of us would get healthcare in America. We’d get new jobs. We’d be able to plan a retirement.
Because with Hillary Clinton, you get more than empty hope. You get a blonde, relentless, hardworking, terminator of a woman who never rests, never quits, and never stops until the job is done.
Shame on you, Barack Obama!
Florida isn’t any place to be afraid of either. Sure, there are giant reptiles and other prehistoric monsters lurking in the swamps, but there’s shopping and fried calamari on Third Avenue in Naples! Sure looks like fun. Maybe Michelle could find things to be proud of in Naples, Florida. The art, the history, the culture. While Obama is out campaigning, Michelle could be enjoying all the wonders Florida has to offer.
Visit Florida — it’s one heck of a state!
What’s Obama so scared of in Michigan? Sounds like a perfectly lovely state to us…
Thanks to The Big Pink for the video.
A woman will serve in the highest level of the executive. It’s as simple as that.
Hillary Clinton is our Contender.
She will not be eclipsed by an empty suit, puffed up on the Southside of Chicago by a hate-filled bigot on his bully pulpit, coddled and egrandized by the mainstream media.
Hillary Clinton will be the 44th President of the United States.
This will be a CAN’T MISS interview: Hillary Clinton on Greta Van Susteren.
Wednesday March 26th, 2008. 10pm EST, 9pm CST.
We at HillBuzz are more proud of Chelsea every day. In Indiana, at Butler University, Chelsea is campaigning for her mom and expertly dealt with an inappropriate questioner — the first person in a tour of more than 70 college campuses to ask her something vulgar like that. Chelsea told the boy this was none of his business and moved on to a more intelligent question about global warming.