And we at HillBuzz are proud of being busy little bees in that ever-growing online swarm. Buzz, buzz, buzz.
Speaking of which, if you are looking for something fun to do in Chicago on Sunday April 6th and would like to meet Chelsea Clinton (or would just like to donate to Hillary and support this Chicago event), please check out this link below:
Millions Of Dollars” From Outside Groups Boosting Obama
The Washington Times reports this morning that Sen. Barack Obama, “whose campaign has sharply criticized the role of outside political groups in the presidential race, has benefited more than any other candidate from millions of dollars in independent political expenditures, records show.” That “increasing support for Mr. Obama has given him a boost from the same sort of political activity his campaign has railed against, especially when millions of dollars in union and other special-interest money backed his opponents.” The Times says the political arm of the Service Employees International Union “and other independent groups have spent more than $7.1 million directly supporting the Illinois Democrat’s bid for the presidential nomination, campaign records show. By contrast, similar outside groups have spent about $5.1 million backing” Sen. Hillary Clinton.
HillBuzz has been closely monitoring Latino support for Democrats in the 2008 race. Latinos are solidly behind Hillary Clinton, as evidenced time and again in this primary season. Whenever the MSM (mainstream media) has claimed Obama inroads into Hispanic support, the Latino community has delivered consistently to Hillary by huge, solid numbers.
But, that Latino vote should not be taken for granted. If Barack Obama is the Democratic nominee, every analysis HillBuzz reads says the Latino vote will go to McCain in the fall.
Here is one such analysis HillBuzz read this weekend, from a Latino activist in the Democratic Party, who sees defeat to McCain with Obama as the nominee:
Since the mainstream media is feeding the public perspectives about the Latino vote from an outsiders viewpoint, let me share some keyaspects from the Latino viewpoint.
Fact # 1: Sen. Barack Obama cannot win the Presidency without at least carrying a MINIMUM of 70% of the Latino vote in November. On at least three occasions in February & one in March, Obama’s Latino key leaders in the West Coast & the Midwest have explained this inSpanish radio & Spanish language TV. Here are some key pointers from the Obama camp.
A) They fully expect that Sen. Obama may receive less white votes in November than any of the previous three Democratic presidential candidates. Its only a critical question of by how much less white support he will receive. They have pointed out key white voting percentages: 2004-John Kerry received = 41% of all white voters 2000- Al Gore received = 42% of all white voters 1996-Bill Clinton = 43% of all white voters
Note: According to Latinos strategist from both Obama & Clinton: Every one white vote in 2008 is equivalent to 4 Latino votes based on estimated population voter percentages: With the expected drop in white support, the Latino vote will be the critical key block that is needed to offset the expected loss of whitevotes in November for Obama. They point out key Latino voting percentages :2004-John Kerry received= 53% of all Latino voters 2000- Al Gore received= 62% of all Latino voters 1996- Bill Clinton= 72% of all Latino voters
Note: For the first time in U.S. History, Latino voters are expected to break the 10% threshold of all voters in November 2008. For the first time in U.S. History, Latino voters are expected to surpass or equal the percentage of African-American voters in November 2008. These two elements just mentioned makes the Latino vote the MAKE or BREAK voting block for the Democratic Party nominee. As Atty. Sanchez & Atty. Espinosa , two of the Obama’s major LatinoCoordinator in the the Southwest region has stated-” If Sen. Obama does not win at least 70% of Latino voters in theGeneral election, he will not be the next President of the United States. If he gets the percentage that Kerry or Gore( 53% & 62%)received in 2004 & 2000 from the Latino voters, it just won’t beenough. The lower the caucasian support for Sen. Obama, the higher the Latino margin of victory has to be in order to offset that.
Black voters are already maxed out, so the only movement, if any, has to come from the Latinos.”The strategist do not see much more movement from African-Americanvoters since they have already reached ceiling support for BarackObama in the primary. The remaining support 5%-10% in the African-American community will come from current African-American Sen. Clinton supporters.
The other key element pointed out by Latinos for Obama leaders is the critical question of how much realistically can Latinos offset the expected drop in white support ?Several Latino Obama strategist have a similar yet slightly different take on white votes. One strategist explained on Spanish TV that if Obama does not get a minimum of 39% of white votes in November, the Latino voters will not be able to offset that. We just don’t have the Latinos numbers to offset that in 2008. While I’ve heard another Obama Latino strategist state on Spanish talkradio that 37% is the absolute rock bottom number for white voters. Obama cannot get less than that if he is to be competitive. The Latino vote cannot counter the white vote if it goes below that. Either way, the critical question here is this: Kerry, Gore & Bill Clinton all received 40%-42% of the white vote. This was with the “white reagan democrats” coming back home to thedemocratic party. As opposed to the HORRIBLE nightmare of Dukakis getting just 31% ofall white voters & winning just 10 states or Mondale just getting less than 25% of all white voters & winning 1 state.
The Billion Dollar question is can, Sen. Barack Obama win or hold atleast 37% of all white voters in order to at least have a chance ofbeing competitive ?
The Million Dollar question is can, Sen. Barack Obama win at least 70% of Latino voters in November ? ( Only Bill Clinton has ever done thatat 72% ) ( Gore & Kerry were way off )
The $100,000 question is, John McCain is obviously more popular among Latinos than most Republicans. He has always won Arizona Latinos in big numbers. His Approval rating among Latinos inched even higher in 2007 because of his stand on protecting Latinos on immigration. McCain has won as much as 65% of Latino voters.
All McCain needs in November is take at least 40% of Latino voters in November & its GAME OVER. ( Remember, Bush got 44% of all latino votes in 2000 & won )So if Bush got 44% of Latino votes in 2000( despite massive Kerry spending on Spanish TV, Radio & Direct mail) inspite of the War inIraq, can a more popular(among Latinos) McCain get at least 40% ?
The other $100,000 question is, Kerry, Gore & Bill Clinton got 84% -87% of All white registered democrats who voted. ( just to staycompetitive with the Republicans)Can Sen. Obama carry 84%-87% of all white registered democrats who will vote in November ? If not, how much less will he get without knocking him out ?Will white democratic voters turnout in the same numbers as Kerry,Gore & Bill Clinton or will a percentage stay home?
These are real, frank, straight questions that everyone has to ponder& think. People have to take out their emotions & look at reality of voting patterns including the critical factor of RACIAL VOTING. Lastly, what has been the initial reaction of Latino activists on Radio & TV ?
In conclusion, Senator Obama has 3 BIG NUTS to Crack.1) Can he solidify & unite the Latino community to support him for November ?( two latest latino surveys, taken both in March, show Clinton’ssupport among Latinos is at about 71%-73%. Note: One survey showed 51%plan to cross partylines in Nov. if Sen. Obama is the nominee. The other survey showed 55% would cross partylines)2)Can he hold on and/or minimize the defection of “white reagan democrats to the GOP in November? ( right now, Reagan democrats aresolidly behind Sen. Clinton since Super Tuesday. The numbers havecontinued to increase for Clinton among this group) We all saw the results of 1984 & 1988 when this large block abandonedthe democratic party.3) Will there be larger than normal white voter turnout among middleamerica & moderate whites among registered republicans & independents? ( especially with the memory of the Rev. Wright racial controversy) All I will say particularly to White & Black Democrats.We Latinos have a unique perspective as someone who can see bothworlds. The perspective of white & black people. Since we are not apart of neither world. And right now, white progressives & some african-americans are notfacing reality when it comes to race. Whether you or I like it or not, whether its right or wrong, RACE WILL BE A KEY FACTOR in November. No Speech will change years of learned behavior & private attitudes ofmost americans when it comes to race.We are All bias in our own way!I will support & vote for Senator Obama as the nominee. I am alre
adygetting ready to give my strong talking points for why he should bePresident to the many latinos that I will have to convince. But in all honesty, I only see two outcomes in November. They are both EXTREMES. I see a victorious President Barack Obama as breakthrough AmericanHero in November by getting massive Latino, Black support combinedwith decent white support. It would shock even Republicans & it wouldbe historic celebrations.
OrIt would be Worst Lost Opportunity in Democratic history. Much Worse than the 2000 lost opportunity. It would be a down, depressed,shocked democratic party. Due to massive Electoral college defeats in states like PA,NJ,OH,MO,MA,MI,NM,CT,NH,ME,MN,FL & the entire south. It would be comparable to Dukakis & Mondale in terms of Electoral college numbers. It would almost surely cost us the Senate control due to massive statewide crossover from White reagan democrats & latinos. We shall see in November!
Tennessee Guerilla Women made a good catch with a comment by James Carville this weekend.
Obama is afraid to do a Michigan re-vote because he is scared and doesn’t win big states. HillBuzz cannot figure out how the Democratic Party’s Super Delegates, the protectors and elders of our party, could believe that we will win in November if Obama is the nominee. He wins small states and caucus states.
This weekend, HillBuzz broke down the numbers and predicted the General Election outcome if Obama turns out to be the nominee. Numbers were based on the state of the Primary race and past General Election trends.
If the Democratic Primary were the General Election, HillBuzz calculates Hillary as coming out way ahead against Obama. We figure Michigan and Florida into the equation because, unlike the Obama camp, we believe in a 50 state strategy over a 48 state strategy. The points on the board so far would give Hillary a big Ad-In:
- Obama – 217 Electoral Votes (won 29 states & territories – around 10 caucus wins)
- Clinton – 263 Electoral Votes (won 17 states & territories)
We need 270 to win the nomination. The problem with Obama’s math is, we wonder how he expects to win states that he lost to Clinton against McCain? Our guess, from the Democrats for McCain sites popping up every day, that these Democrats yearn for experience in the White House. Experience is something that can’t be bought with Ad time.
HillBuzz noticed someone talking about this on Hillaryis44.com today:
When the Democratic Party loses the center, it loses the General Election.
The 1972 McGovern nomination was a DISASTER: the liberal elite and media pushing a candidate the center of the party did not support.
In 1980, Carter lost “the Reagan Democrats” who left the party and did not return until Bill Clinton in 1992.
In 1984 and 1988, the Democrats STILL didn’t learn, and didn’t run as centrists, and the Democrats DIDN’T WIN.
In the 1950s, Adlai Sevenson ran TWICE as the darling of the “hugely liberal, anti-war intelligentsia”.
If Barack Obama is the Democratic nominee in 2008, the Democrats will lose the centrists again — who will form Democrats for McCain.
Obama will have the support of the liberal elite and the media, but will lose the center, and will spawn Democrats for McCain in droves.
The Mainstream Media is pretending Obama put the Jeremiah Wright controversy behind him.
There are real and legitimate concerns that Jeremiah Wright’s insane rantings will doom Obama in a General Election matchup with McCain. The voters in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Indiana, South Dakota, and others are watching.
For some perspective on the drubbing Democrats could take in 2008 if Obama is the nominee, HillBuzz looked at the past 9 elections and the Electoral College outcomes:
Bush = 286 (won FL, IN, OH, NV, NM)
Kerry = 251 (won MI, MN, IA)
Bush = 271 (won FL, OH, NV)
Gore = 266 (won IN, NM, MN, MI, IA)
Clinton = 379 (won OH, FL, MI, MN, IA, NM, NV, PA)
Dole = 159 (won IN, VA)
Clinton = 370 (won OH, PA, MN, NM, NV)
Bush = 168 (won IN, FL)
Bush = 426 (won MI, OH, IN, FL, NM, NV)
Dukakis = 112 (won IA, MN)
Reagan = 525
Mondale = 13 (won only MN)
Reagan = 489 (won MI, IN, FL, OH, NV. NM)
Carter = 49 (won MN)
Carter = 297 (won FL, OH, MN, PA)
Ford = 240 (won IN, IA. MI, NM, NV)
McGovern: 17 (won only MA)
HillBuzz wondered who would win in a matchup between John McCain and Barack Obama in the fall of 2008. So, we pulled all the recent polls and also paid attention to the following formula we’ve found to be especially convincing:
* For Obama to win the Electoral College, he needs to pull 70% of the Latino vote, 100% of the black vote, and 37% of the white vote. He also needs to hold onto the majority of Hillary Clinton supporters.
* Obama needs to win New Mexico, Ohio, Minnesota, and Michigan to win the Presidency.
The above seems unlikely.
HillBuzz believes the Electoral College will breakdown this way, in a McCain-Obama matchup:
McCain wins = 341 ECV
Alabama: 9 ECV
Alaska: 3 ECV
Arizona: 10 ECV
Arkansas: 6 ECV
Colorado: 9 ECV
Florida: 27 ECV
Georgia: 15 ECV
Idaho: 4 ECV
Indiana: 11 ECV
Iowa: 7 ECV
Kentucky: 8 ECV
Louisiana: 9 ECV
Michigan: 17 ECV
Minnesota: 10 ECV
Mississippi: 6 ECV
Missiouri: 11 ECV
Montana: 3 ECV
Nebraska: 3 ECV
Nevada: 5 ECV
New Jersey: 15 ECV
New Mexico: 5 ECV
North Carolina: 15 ECV
Ohio: 20 ECV
North Dakota: 3 ECV
Oklahoma: 7 ECV
Pennsylvania: 21 ECV
South Carolina: 8 ECV
South Dakota: 3 ECV
Tennessee: 11 ECV
Texas: 34 ECV
Utah: 5 ECV
Virginia: 13 ECV
West Virginia: 5 ECV
Wyoming: 3 ECV
Obama wins = 197 ECV
California: 55 ECV
Connecticut: 7 ECV
Delaware: 3 ECV
Hawaii: 4 ECV
Illinois: 21 ECV
Maine: 4 ECV
Maryland: 10 ECV
Massachusetts: 12 ECV
Kansas: 6 ECV
Nebraska: 2 ECV
New Hampshire: 4 ECV
New York: 31 ECV
Oregon: 7 ECV
Rhode Island: 4 ECV
Vermont: 3 ECV
Washington: 11 ECV
Wisconsin: 10 ECV
Washington DC: 3 ECV
(1) McCain wins Michigan and Florida, in large part, because of Obama’s efforts to disenfranchise Michigan and Florida primary voters. 25% of Florida Democrats have stated they will not support Obama in the fall if the Florida primary does not count towards the nomination. Similar sentiment exists in Michigan.
(2) McCain’s Latino support carries Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado.
(3) McCain carries Minnesota with the help of Governor Pawlenty
(4) McCain wins Virginia, which had been leaning Democratic, because he is the stronger national security candidate
(5) There is a real chance McCain could also win California, with Governor Schwarzenegger campaigning for him, and Latinos switching over to vote for McCain. In that event, the final Electoral College numbers would be: McCain-402 v. Obama-136
HillBuzz notices a real disconnect between the MSM (mainstream media) and regular people regarding Jeremiah Wright and people’s reactions to Obama’s speech.
This disconnect will cost the Democrats the White House in the fall if Obama is the nominee.
The real question is not what the talking heads on Meet the Press or Chris Matthews say, but what voters are thinking in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Indiana.