Is This the Final Election Map for 2012? Romney = 301, Obama = 237? Or will it be an even higher margin of victory?
UnskewedPolls.com has done a great job of filtering through the propaganda that the Ministry of Truth has cooked into polls this election. The most recent electoral map over there shows a Romney win at 301 EVS to just 237 for Obama. That’s a 64-EV margin of victory.
I’ve always thought that Romney will win by between 70-80 EVs…and possibly over 100. So I think UnskewedPolls is a little too hesitant here.
The two big changes I’d make to their map are:
* Romney takes one EV in Maine, because Maine splits things by Congressional district and I believe Romney takes one of Maine’s 3 EVs this way.
* Romney wins New Mexico…which is going on a limb somewhat because this is a state that normally votes Democrat, but I think Governor Susana Martinez personally wins the state for Romney. She’s campaigning hard for him, is a dynamic person, and I believe the state’s fallen in love with her. I know I sure loved her speech at the Republican convention and expect big things from her in the future. I think she delivers for Romney.
* This would bring Romney’s EV total up to 307, versus Obama’s 230…for a difference of 70 EVs between them. Realistically, this is how big I think the win is going to be…barring a true cataclysm for Democrats where they lose Pennsylvania and Michigan.
I don’t think it’s possible for Obama to lose Pennsylvania and not lose Michigan too…so I think he either keeps both, or loses both. These are the only two states I see as toss-ups right now…with 36 EVs that could go to Romney in the extraordinary circumstances of this election. This is wildly new territory for Republicans to be in…and it’s pretty remarkable for observers of politics to consider a scenario where the Democrat incumbent loses Pennsylvania and Michigan. That loss would make Romney’s win in the 100 EV range…which would be remarkable.
In the last week of this election, look for any signs that Democrats are losing hold of Pennsylvania and Michigan. If they start diverting resources there, and start aggressively campaigning there, then we’ll know that these are the last two battlegrounds of this election.
The Ministry of Truth is still claiming that Iowa, Colorado, New Hampshire, and Ohio are toss-ups…but don’t believe it. Those states are in Romney’s column and have been for quite some time. Personally, I think Obama lost reelection back in 2010 the day that Obamacare passed despite the fact that Americans coast to coast didn’t want Democrats to ram that legislation through the way they did. Minitru has run cover for Obama and the Left ever since, but it’s been obvious that the aggressive way Obamacare was handled permanently alienated Independents from Democrats and unified Republicans in opposition to the Left. Remember that Obama only won his election in 2008 by tricking Independents into thinking he’d be a moderate in office…and many Republicans were so delighted to have a black president that they broke ranks and voted for him too. None of those fools will be voting Democrat again this time.
Who’s left, then? People who vote Democrat no matter who is running and people who think Obama did a good job in these last four years. That is not a majority of people in states like Iowa, Colorado, New Hampshire or Ohio. Is that a majority of people in Michigan or Pennsylvania? We’ll know in a week…but I’m tempted to think, NO.
It is a majority of folks in California and New York…and it’s a majority in DC and Hawaii…but are there really enough people who vote Democrat no matter what and who think Obama’s done a good job in Michigan and Pennsylvania? Are the urban centers of Detroit and Philly strong enough to deliver their respective states to Obama?
That’s the big question we’re facing right now. I think this is where it breaks down to a 50/50 chance of Romney winning these states…and I think we might know more by November 1st, once Halloween is over and the Left starts showing more of its hand right before the election. We already know Romney’s going to win..but the guessing game is figuring out by how much…and I think in the next four or five days that the Left will tip us off to the right answer depending on how crazy they start behaving and how many resources are dumped into Michigan and Pennsylvania to hold their firewall there.
Can you even believe that the 2012 elections involve the new-battleground states of Michigan and Pennsylvania?
© 2012, Kevin DuJan. All rights reserved.
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