How the Corrupt Media Deliberately Deceives You With Polling in Order to Help Obama
My boyfriend Justin doesn’t know why I do certain things and he’ll fight me on them because he thinks his way is better; usually this involves something I do to avoid a ticket or some other scam here in Chicago. A great example of this happened a few months ago when we went to the Alderman’s office to pickup our baseball season resident parking pass — which needs to be displayed on the dash of the car or it will be ticketed during baseball games in our neighborhood (as we’re just two blocks from the ballpark). The Alderman’s office gives you a tiny resident sticker and then also two brightly colored cards that are for your guests who might be visiting you so they can put those in their cars and avoid tickets on game nights too. I told Justin to put BOTH the resident sticker and the dashboard “guest” parking card in his car so there would be no way on Earth he could ever get a ticket. Justin thought he knew better, fought me on this all day, and ultimately I relented and let him put just the tiny resident sticker on the side of his windshield and not put the large, colorful, guest parking card on the dash.
The next week, Justin got not one but TWO $75 tickets (one in the morning and one eight hours later) because the Chicago Department of Revenue agents came by and took a picture of his windshield so that the resident sticker was not visible; they then claimed that he had no sticker. If Justin had put the guest parking pass on the dash (which is enormous) there’s no way a picture could have been taken that would have missed BOTH the resident sticker and that guest pass.
Justin doesn’t understand why I do things that to him are redundant but it’s because I grew up in Thunderdome and know just how aggressively Democrats in an urban setting will try to shake you down with tickets unless you think two or three steps ahead of them. It’s not enough to do what you think a city rule requires you to do…you must actually think of all the ways they could possibly try to cheat or scam you and then set things up so there’s no way they could lie, manipulate data, or shoot pictures from creative angles to bust you. Growing up in Arkansas, Justin doesn’t understand this and maybe never will — but living in Chicago and covering politics makes me grateful every day that I was born and raised in Cleveland and was taught to be ever vigilant when it comes to people who are trying to put one over on us.
Justin’s someone who believes the polls he hears recited in the corrupt media. And he never learns his lesson, because Justin is a nice Southern guy who doesn’t lie, cheat, or steal and assumes that something reported in the “news” must be true. Justin takes things at face value and isn’t inclined to dig deeper and think about how the “news” was altered to better help Democrats.
When you see any poll, you need to do the following five things…every time…without exception; this is the equivalent of putting both the resident sticker and the guest parking pass on your car in Chicago to prevent any possibility of your getting a ticket (or being duped by the Democrats who sent that poll out to trick you):
1. Look at the partisan breakdown of the poll and make sure it is the 2012 numbers. The partisan breakdown I am using for the 2012 elections is: D=33.3%, R=37.6%, I=29.2%. We are at the highest percentage of Republican registrations and the lowest percent of Democrat registrations in history. The polls you see that show Obama leading in states like Ohio are deceiving you because they are running Democrat percentages that are 44% or MORE; that’s just ridiculous because the highest Democrat registration advantage in YEARS was in 2008, where Democrats were at 41.4% to just 33.8% for Republicans and 24.7% for Independents. 2008 was the Democrats’ high water mark surfing that giant wave of Hopeychange kool-aid.
In 2010, Democrats’ numbers decreased substantially because of the unpopularity of Obamacare and the failed Trillion Dollar Stimulus; numbers that year fell to 34.7% for Democrats and rose to 36% for Republicans (with 29.3% of people who continue to claim they can’t make up their mind which party they support). Now, this is the part where I typically lose Justin because he does not much like numbers and doesn’t appreciate how Democrats try to deceive people…but I believe 2010 was just the beginning of people being fed up with what Democrats have been doing in office under Obama while the corrupt media is trying to insist “the Tea Party went away” and Democrats have become more popular since 2010.
The corrupt media is claiming that Democrats’ favor with the public has INCREASED since 2010 and in fact is even higher than it was in 2008. That’s just insane. In reality, people like Democrats less than they did in 2010, which puts them at a D=33.3% number in reality where polls like the “Obama is winning Ohio!” one have Democrats at 44% or more. That’s just wishcasting on the part of the pollsters. Justin asks, “Well, why would they lie like that?” and I need to remind him they do this to demoralize people like him and his mother CarolAnne in Arkansas who becomes depressed when she reads that “Obama’s leading in Ohio by 5! We’re doomed!”. If you keep falling for this stuff, you’re just foolish. I’m sorry to be this blunt, but you are. The good thing is that you can stop being foolish if you choose to also stop letting these people trick you as much as they do Justin’s mother.
2. Look at the gender gap in the poll and see if it is realistic. The second easiest way to cook a poll is to include a much higher percentage of women than men because women tend to vote Democrat more than men. There are a lot of women who very stupidly fall for the Democrats’ baby-killing messaging and enjoy hearing the word “Choice” since Republicans foolishly don’t insist that be called ‘The Right to Kill Babies”. Democrats will enjoy a woman voter advantage until the day Republicans wise up and prevent them from couching things in terms of “Choice” instead of putting the focus on the actual killing of babies in wombs that’s being done. If a poll has a higher percentage of women over men than the actual state has, then the poll has been cooked to favor Democrats. Women and men actually vote in equal numbers and it usually shakes out to 51% women and 49% men in elections. A poll that has 9% more women than men in it is just cooked to gig advantages to Democrats. So don’t fall for it!
3. Look for the racial breakdown of the poll to check if that’s being cooked for Democrats’ benefit. This is similar to the above, but is a little more complicated because on average blacks are 12% of the population but have a very low turnout in typical election years. 2008 was an anomaly because race-pride drove a lot of blacks to the polls, where many of them shouted obnoxiously “It’s the Black House now!” and generally reveled in the fact that they got to vote for a black candidate for president. I kind of understand this a little, because I’d like to see Congressman Aaron Schock come out of the closet so I could someday hopefully vote for him to be our first gay VP or President. I do think it would be cool to vote another gay guy into high national office, just as many blacks loved being able to vote for someone who looked like them on a ballot. But re-electing Obama is not the same thing as putting him into office the first time. History was made, and re-electing him is not as exciting. A lot of blacks are still looking for their “Obama Money” and still wondering where their hope and change is. I expect black voter turnout to be back to normal levels this year. What’s interesting about that is the fact that other facets of Democrat voter blocs will be decreased this year, and fall under 2006 or 2004 levels but blacks will probably vote at 2006 levels because the enthusiasm for Obama is still higher among blacks and they’ll turn out more than other Democrat identity blocs in a year in which across the board people are very disappointed in Democrats. So, you might use the 2004 numbers to tell you how many women will support Democrats but you should use the 2006 (higher) numbers for blacks because of the race-pride factor. There’s no way that blacks or any other Democrat identity bloc will vote in 2008 percentages, though, so any poll that’s saying these numbers will be the same (or higher!) is bunk.
4. Make sure you understand what “independents” typically do in elections like this. Having an incumbent like Obama in the race changes how independents vote. Undecided or independent voters are actually neither of these things and are instead just people who don’t like to commit to either party, for whatever reason. They know Obama well, and they are not waiting for more information on him. If he does not have their vote at this point, there’s nothing between now and election day that Obama can do to secure them. I think the 80/20 rule will apply to these people and Romney will get the majority of them. Some of these clowns fancy themselves as great philosophers who won’t take a stand on something “until they have all the facts”. They’ve seen people do this on the tee-vee and think this is how they are supposed to act when someone from a polling company asks their opinion. Justin’s dad actually does this in restaurants, where he grills the waitress on all the specials, takes up about 15 minutes of her time asking all sorts of questions about the menu, and then ultimately orders the same double-cheesburger with chili fries that Doc always gets. Justin knows what his father will do because that’s what he always does, but part of Doc’s fun in going out to a restaurant is to engage in all these theatrics. I think it’s dumb, but honestly I can see millions of “independents” doing this as part of their “fun” come election time. We know these people are not voting for Obama again but they just don’t want to give up the game by saying they are going to vote for Romney.
5. See who paid for the poll and who is loudly trumpeting its results. Here’s a really quick rule of thumb: if Chris Matthews, Rachel Maddow, and Anderson Cooper are reading the results of a poll and excitedly declaring its importance there is a 99% change that poll is bunk. The polls that are valid are the ones that MSNBC and CNN ignore or try to bury. If you’re someone fool enough to watch either of those channels, you should only be doing it as an exercise in peering through the looking glass into BizarroWorld. Do you remember “Baghdad Bob” during the Iraq War? That was Saddam Hussein’s Minister of Truth would take to the airwaves every day reporting that Saddam Hussein was winning and that American forces were being crushed by the Iraqi army. As he’d say this, US tanks would roll by with GIs mooning the camera. It was hilarious. THAT is what Matthews, Maddow, Cooper and the rest are like if you know the real story. They flagrantly and deliberately lie on TV every day and they push bad polls that make Obama look good. You really need to see the corrupt media as a Ministry of Truth and respond to their “reporting” appropriately.
I think the biggest thing you can do to help in this election is to control whatever natural urges you have to get on the phone, email, or Internet and panic about anything. I don’t think you even understand the amount of damage you do by giving your worries “voice” like this. On this site, I actually censor out 99% of the comments people try to make that spread this sort of “we’re doomed!” garbage but I know that other sites don’t do that. I think it’s stupid to let people come online and demoralize others by regurgitating things that MSNBC or CNN says. It’s expensive to pay for the servers for HB every month and I just refuse to allow a resource we pay for to be co-opted by Eeyores who try to turn this place into an echo chamber for MSNBC’s talking points. Not on my watch, folks.
It would be great if you could police yourself in your own interactions with people. Don’t feed negativity or spread rain clouds to others. Take charge of any conversation you are in and remind whoever you are talking to of how the corrupt media lies and how it’s like a Ministry of Truth. If someone starts quoting a poll, ask them to tell you the answers to the five points I just detailed above and see if you can get what sort of sample was in the polling. I can take a poll of the people on my block and fudge the numbers to show any result I want. That is exactly what the corrupt media does too!
Obama is losing and will lose the presidency. The Left is doing all that it can to cling to power. This involves a massive misinformation and demoralization campaign.
Our greatest burden is how willing some conservatives are to HELP the Left by going off on Eeyore trips and posting online how “worried” they are about this or that poll without stopping to think about whether or both they are being played.
After getting two expensive parking tickets, Justin had to relent and accept that I’m right about always needing to remain vigilant here in Chicago and constantly look for ways that the City will try to trick us and take our money. It’s exhausting to live like this, and to forever be on guard, but it’s a fact of life in a Democrat-controlled part of the country. Since the media’s Democrat-controlled, you need to live like this too if you are listening to anything they report on “the news”.
© 2012, Kevin DuJan. All rights reserved.
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After reading this, I wonder how many pollsters are also being bullied to show Obama ahead when he is actually behind.
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/09/06/emails-suggest-axelrod-leaned-on-gallup-after-unfavorable-poll/
I’d say ALL of them were threatened, either financially legally or physically. Without the polls showing close, they cannot pull off the SCYTL Barcelona miscount cheat as it wouldn’t make sense. They also need to demoralize the people.
You know what we should do our own “POLL”. Why not? Let’s call it the Hillbuzz DuJan poll. I will call 10 random phone numbers. We need a consistent script to which to adhere. I can poll in the Bellevue, Washington area. We could put together our own data.
How about we work on a script and then brave up and try this. Ten calls, OK 30 because you’ll get hung up on or yelled at a lot, but ten calls and we could see what’s really going on.
“We are doing a random 2012 presidential election poll and would like to ask, ‘If you are a registered voter, which is your party affilitation and who do you plan to vote for in the upcoming presidential election?’”
I think that would be too biased? Any opinions?
>Posts a link to Fox News
>Expects us to believe it
>mfw
Maybe pollsters feel pressure to report certain results in order to have their polls cited in news reports in the MSM. You can bet that a poll strongly favoring Romney will be reported on the front page on the NYT.
Oops! I meant WON’T be reported on the front page of the NYT.
Thank you Kevin. I agree with you 100%, yet every once in a while, I get that nervous twinge. Then you post something that reaffirms everything I believe!!!
Love your site!!
Hi-new reader-got here from a recommendation-great job! You are now bookmarked, keep up the great work!
I love this kind of information because it so illustrates how engaged and informed, we conservatives, wish to be. Kinda like using the Dept of Labor’s U-6 report that forces us to use accurate unemployment data and not just the U-2 that this administration wants us to use. Thank you, thank you.
lets all be careful, these polls are designed to make people quit, big doners will see the polls and give to obama in the hopes he spares them from his agenda.
Republicans need to work hard, TV ads will not work that much, sitting down with friends and family and explaining the issues, emailing them good youtube clips and articles which impact them.
Excellent points!
Find accurate polls and get them out there. If you can get the figures on a slanted poll, use the accurate breakdown or % of voters and let others know. Teach family and friends how to get the real figures.
Kevin your analysis is spot on (as usual)! I’ve even learned something about my husband of 27 years thanks to you…he was raised in suburban Chicago and is skeptical about everything. I was was raised in Northeast Iowa and want to trust what I hear and want to believe that people can’t be so bad as to blatantly lie. Well they do…and Saul Alinsky reinforces that the ends justify the means for these progressives. So now I follow what Ronald Reagan said: Trust but verify.
Sara -
I’m glad you told me this. It really is a cultural thing. If you grow up in a Democrat-controlled city your brain works differently from people who were not exposed to this.
I joke that if I send Justin out with grocery money he will come back with magic beans. He just doesn’t know how to handle the city sometime. Now, when we are in rural places, Justin shines because people relate to him but find me abrasive..but Justin can blend in. So road trips are fun with him.
Perhaps that is why you are such a great pair!
Kevin….many, many thanks for this column today. I confess that I am probably one of the worst about crying on the shoulders of my friends and family about how afraid I am that Zero may win again. But NO MORE! From this moment on I am upbeat and positive. Your advice is priceless.
Also, I read a column of yours that was recently (like yesterday) published in iOTW. Another GREAT one!
Thanks for your levelheadedness and please keep up the good work!
All best!
As to #4: The conventional wisdom among pollsters is that undecided voters typically break 2:1 in favor of the incumbent. I know this from talking directly to pollsters.
However in doing some research on the subject I found this: http://www.pollingreport.com/incumbent.htm It suggests that the challenger gets the majority of the undecided vote.
Some real gems there including:
An incumbent leading with less than 50% (against one challenger) is frequently in trouble; how much depends on how much less than 50%. A common pattern has been for incumbents ahead with 50% or less to end up losing. Final polls showing losing incumbents ahead are accurate. The important question is whether results are reported with an understanding of how undecideds decide.
Kevin, you are the best. I was hoping you could give me some advice. I have a cousin who recently “came out” and we all love him to death but I fear that he is going to quickly fall into the Dem plantation when all his friends start telling him how evil we republicans are. I would give anything for a chance to have him meet you or at least talk to you. Any ideas?
God Bless you my friend.
Lou, all you can do is what I do with my gay friends. When they start going on and on about how evil and hateful the Republicans and conservatives are and how they want to destroy gay people, blah, blah, blah, I remind them that I am a conservative. I ask them if they think I wish to see them destroyed. Naturally they respond “Of course not!” I explain that what they are repeating is just what the media and the left want them to think about Republicans and conservatives. I’m not denying that some gay people have been traumatized by being rejected by their families, co-workers, etc., when they came out. But frankly, a lot of those people doing the rejecting are LIBERALS! If I remember correctly, Chaz Bono has a really hard time with her MOTHER when s/he came out. And that mother is CHER for heaven’s sake! Barbra Streisand’s son struggled with coming out as well.
I guess what I am saying is if you know gay people who fear conservatives, hold yourself out as an example of how loving and accepting conservatives truly are, and then refer them to Hillbuzz so they can “meet” Kevin.
Thanks DG!
Kevin, it’s been way too long since I told you how much I love you and appreciate your work.
This post is a really good example of why.
Thunderdome indeed. Watch out for those apokkyclipsers.
And please give Justin a hug for me. Hopefully he can continue to learn from you how to protect himself without losing that trusting quality I know you love about him. He couldn’t have a better guide. You’ve got the Thunderdome edge and mad survival skills and instincts, but your seemingly cynical approach certainly doesn’t translate into your being a cynical person. Indeed, you’re among the most hopeful and non-cynical writers/warriors in today’s growing army American conservative citizens.
The numbers in this partisan breakdown you’ve provided here certainly underscore the existence and growing health of that citizens army. And while it’s true not all Republicans are conservatives, they are, thank Heaven, not Democrats.
I’m pressing on with Governor Palin and her work to ensure not only obama’s defeat, but to also assure as many down-ticket seats as possible are won by solidly conservative candidates. It’s vital to retake the Senate and strengthen our numbers in the House. I know I’m preaching to the choir here and we agree it’s not optional. Obama must go.
Otherwise the predators win and the Justins of this world will be devoured.
That’s not what we do in America.
I love you, I do.
My nature won’t allow me to call this one in the bag yet, but my anxiety over this is nothing but poison to me and anyone it touches. I will have the audacity to hope. Not just a little but with flagrant disregard of caution.
Blessings. Rock on,
Lisa
Kevin, thank-you for reminding your readers that we must look at the internals on these junk polls. Some of these polls don’t even show the breakdown, like the recent (online) Reuters/Ipsos poll, or the skewed ones like PPP. And how about the Gallup, post DOJ intimidation! I live in blue MA and Dems here are quick to jump on these. As soon as I ask them if they know the internals their eyes glaze over, lol.
BTW, I’ve been a registered D for 4 decades, but left the reservation about ten years ago, so I guess you can say I became an early PUMA apostate! After 9/11 it became clear to me that political correctness was the Dem’s (and America’s) weakness, and America’s enemies know this and exploit it.
Today’s D party is not my father’s party. Too bad so many Dems are still drinking the koolaide and loving it. It’s not even big government that they champion, it’s OBESE government, and that’s unsustainable.
The MSM is now in full bullswinging mode, and too many conservatives get so easily demoralized. Don’t fall for it folks! Stay strong, it’ll be a wave election. The pendulum is swinging.
Great great great read, Kevin. Masterful job. Just continue being a stabilizing influence on Justin, and he’ll be fine. Then he can work on his parents, and eventually THEY’LL turn out fine.
Can you maybe do a follow-up/add-on post this week sometime, to address some additional memes that paralyze Eeyores and Negative Nellies with fear?
1) That the administration’s going to stage a “false flag” or “national emergency”, as a pretext for “cancelling the elections”;
2) That the blacks are going to initiate a “nationwide race war”, no matter whether Obama wins or loses;
3) That Obama will refuse to leave, declaring himself Dictator For Life by fiat, and imposing martial law (or “Marshall law”, for those ignorant of the correct term) and sending all opposition to FEMA camps or having them shot outright.
I’ve beaten my head against the wall for months on other message boards with these people, with no success. All I end up doing is getting in touch with my inner Rahm Emanuel, language-wise. If anyone can word things in a way that clearly explains things, but at the same time refrains from calling people a bunch of idiots, it’s you.
Thank you SO much for bringing this up! These people who talk about this stuff sound just like the lefties who were making nearly the exact same claims/predictions about Bush in 2008.
We have enough to contend with (corrupt media and Obamabots) without adding conspiracy theorists to the mix.
http://www.examiner.com/article/mitt-romney-five-percent-lead-by-unskewed-gallup-poll-data
Just a thought: maybe it’s a good thing that we on the right don’t think this election is in the bag. I don’t want a single Romney supporter to sit back and think we don’t have to work hard to get Obama evicted once and for all. While we’re at it, why don’t we evict all of the Dems in Congress and in Governors’ offices as well? I think there is sufficient evidence to show that cities, states and even the country do better when they are run by conservatives. Look at the cities and states who have been run by liberals for decades. They are not places we want to live. In fact, most of them are places in dire need of bailouts.
FWIW,
The most accurate pollsters of the last two Prez elections:
http://www.tipponline.com/presidency/news/presidency/race-tightens-as-obama-advantage-narrows-to-2-points
Communist Party USA (CPUSA) Endorses Obama for President
http://chasvoice.blogspot.com/2012/09/communist-party-usa-cpusa-endorses.html
Dear Kevin,
Your insight into Democrats, liberals and the polls is so true!!! Keep telling the truth!!! I,too, was raised in Chicago-left it to become an Air Force nurse, where I met my husband. When I tell other people about Chicago politics, they really do not believe me. The Messiah has lost my Chicago sister’s family vote-she had adored him to the point where it was really embarrassing. Now, she too is hoping for a Republican win.
I am also encouraging people who are really conflicted to just not vote. Yes, it would be nice to get their vote but you know darn well that these people are the ones who voted for the Messiah and are really disappointed. It is better that these Obama voters just not vote-advise them that it is better for their mental health, blah, blah, blah. The more former Obama voters not voting, the better it is.
Keep up the good work!!! it is so helpful to all of us!!!
Never ever say “liberals”. Use the word “lefties”.
They WANT you to call them “liberals” because it makes them sound better. Whenever you do what they WANT you to do you help them.
Stop helping them!
Actually they are more like Italian fascist who believed the state was everything and everything was for the state. Read Giovanni Gentile — wiki will do — and you will see what I am talking about. Gentile is actually the man who ghost wrote the philosophy of fascism for Mussolini to take credit. Here is just a little example:
“The Fascist conception of the State is all-embracing; outside of it no human or spiritual values can exist, much less have value. Thus understood, Fascism is totalitarian, and the Fascist State—a synthesis and a unit inclusive of all values—interprets, develops, and potentiates the whole life of a people.”
I for one don’t believe any of polls showing Obama up by five points. Four years ago, at least 50% of the bumper stickers in my neck of the woods (SE VA) were pro-Obama. Now, it seems like it’s 70-30%, with Romney in the lead.
As a side note, I’ve convinced three people who weren’t registered to vote to do so and vote for Romney. In VA, a swing state! If everyone gets at least one democrat/previously apathetic person to vote for Romney, we should get the right result in November.
You’re definitely worth it, definitely!
I was watching Fox earlier this evening and got so pissed at all the talk of O pulling ahead in this or that poll. I had to turn off the tv. I put on some praise and worship music and listened to that while fixing dinner. I feel better now and have decided that I’m going to boycott tv news for at least the next few days. When you can’t even rely on Fox to be honest about the polls, it’s time to turn them off.
What a great read! Thanks for the uplifting and witty report. I am looking forward to checking out the rest of your site as well!
Thanks!
(I know, that’s a lot of exclamation points!)
Kevin- many, many thanks for talking me down from the ledge. I made the grievous mistake of tuning into the evening newscasts, and the deluge of junk polls sent me into Eeyore territory. Keep your stream of common sense flowing; all the red specks living in blue states would get parched without it.
On another note, I laughed out loud from your description of Chicago parking enforcement. It’s exactly like that here in left-of-Lenin San Francisco. Deep blue communities are all the same- nickel and diming the citizens as an all-purpose piggy bank.
Kevin, your post is spot on, here’s another good analysis breaking down the OH poll
http://datechguyblog.com/2012/09/10/about-that-ohio-poll-the-left-is-orgasmic-about/
I read from Ulsterman that PA is way in the bag for Romney — so much so that both campaigns pulled their ads. This was due to their internal polling, but the public polls have Obama way ahead. I find it hear to believe there can be that much of a gap, but I’m hoping Ulsterman’s inside source is right.
You know that Ulsterman has no source and just makes all that stuff up, right? Those little plays he writes are just fiction.
A friend from up in your area shared this article. This is the first thing I’ve read by you but it definitely will not be the last. You taught me a lot and kept me laughing!
I’m hoping Justin’s parents will still like you after you publicly discussed their idiosyncrasies. But I certainly enjoyed reading about them.
Thanks for the article!
Thanks for talking me off the ledge. I’m either going to have a nervous breakdown or an enormous ulcer before this election is over. I don’t know why I can’t just believe the way you do, Kevin. I wish I could.
One other over looked fact is that in the 2010 mid-term elections the women’s vote was split exactly 49/49 between the parties. This is why the entire war on women has been waged by the democrats in the first place. So don’t just check for over sampling of women in general, keep in mind, that most of women care more about the future of our children and our country than the profit margin of Planned Infanticide.
At insidepolling.com we re-weight polls to reflect 2004, 2008 and 2010 exit polling data based on party ID. We also have averages and democrat +% and republican +% models. We do not endorse a particular model, but rather present a range of options for the reader to consider against their personal view of the electorate.
Love this! So true. I am waiting for Tuesday, and I DO hope it’s a landslide. I’ll be grinning from ear to ear.