Great Merciful Zeus — it really appears Al Queda will get its hands on up to 100 nukes by the end of the year
Pakistan is in danger of collapsing in just months — and since Al Queda essentially controls 2/3 of the country to begin with, once the government of Pakistan falls, who do you think will sweep into its military facilities to nab their storehouse of 100+ nuclear weapons?
When the Soviet Union collapsed, not all of its weapons were secured. Supposedly, not only are there still warheads unaccounted for, but there’s at least one suitcase nuke missing from the Soviet arsenal as well. This could be poor records-keeping at the Kremlin, or it could mean these weapons are in the hands of anyone from terrorists to George Soros. No one really knows.
And, evidently, we didn’t seem to learn anything from the last time a nuclear power collapsed and its government was usurped in entirety.
We do not have any faith or confidence that Obama will have strength and courage enough to do the right thing and move quickly to secure all of Pakistan’s weapons when its government falls. More likely than not, Obama will instead go to the United Nations and ask for some sort of resolution, or some other sort of dithering nonsense. China, at the very least, has great incentive to stall or shoot down any resolution that would come out of that laborious body. Just think about it: the more time Al Queda has to seize Pakistan’s arsenal, the more likely it is to succeed. Any weapons Al Queda acquires will be used against the West, not against China. So, it is most definitely in China’s best interests to gum up the works and allow whatever’s to happen to happen. If Russia isn’t too afraid of receving one of those bombs gift-wrapped by Al Queda itself (because of Al Queda agitation in Russia’s Muslim regions), it might just join China in prolonging the dithering.
And then you need to factor in what unpredictable India will do if Pakistan goes under. Will it decide to settle the Kashmir issue once and for all with Pakistan destabilized? Will it make a grab for those nukes itself?
There are so many terrifying twists and turns in all of this.
H.P. Lovecraft, Stephen King, and the horrific writings of Nancy Pelosi couldn’t do a better job turning our stomach or keeping us up at night than this nightmare scenario.
Obama’s lemonade and pixie dust Hope! Change! Silliness! malarkey aren’t going to make this problem go away.
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Hang on for the ride guys, even if nothing happens, it’s going to be a suspenseful (if not terrifying) four years. I’ve been having disaster dreams for weeks.
On the up side, there might be a glimmer of optimism considering Obambi didn’t “Carterize” the whole pirate episode.
OT: How do you guys feel about Hillary yukking it up in Morocco?
Agree with everything up to China letting the West go up in smoke… who’s left to buy all the goods made there? The last thing China will want is mass unemployment.
You guys have a good handle on this. Please Hillary & Bill…please step in and pound some sense into whoever is really running the gov now…
Long time no see HillBuzz – just thought I’d add a bit of perspective as someone with numerous Pakistani friends (in the US and Pakistan) and as someone who has spent considerable time in the urban centers of Lahore and Karachi. Yes, the democratic process in Pakistan is on the brink right now – and yes, the NWF province is nearly completely out of the control of the civilian government. Pakistan has many tough, some (and I count myself at times within this latter group) nearly impossible choices coming in a matter of months (if not weeks/days). That said the one group who’s been out of the power struggle since Musharraf left, discredited, is the military. And while the military doesn’t particularly care for the US right now – they also don’t care for a failed state or for the radical islam of the NWF. And the military controls every single one of Pakistans nukes, NOT the corrupt elected government or the terrorist minded folks in the NWF. We’ll just see what happens, and who the Military eventually backs after they’ve been out of power for awhile and don’t seem quite as bad.
The real threat to Pakistan and to the greater world comes not from terrorists getting their hands on nukes (though that is a frightening prospect, it is simply unrealistic given actual problems in that country) but instead from the continuing division in their intelligence services. Imagine the chaos here if half the CIA was working to support folks like The Weather Underground in a misguided attempt at manipulation and control (insert conspiracy theories here). That’s basically how Pakistani intel works – half understand that you can’t manipulate a stupid dog with sharp teeth for long before he wrecks your house, but the more powerful intel faction (out of its hatred for India) is determined to do just that.
A failed state in Pakistan is a risk, but a factional war (I’m not sure if it could be called a Civil War yet) is a greater risk and one that simply must be mitigated for regional security. Until the military wilts under that factional conflict the nukes stay safe and the country maintains a guise of stability.
I’d bet pretty good odds Pakistan has another moderate strongman at the helm within five or ten years, and that speculation about their nukes has dropped entirely off American radars. Of course I’m a terrible gambler, so we’ll just have to see.
Thank you for this incredibly informative post BigJ. I have read about the huge intel problems before, but the prospect of al qaeda with nukes – makes me want to pass out.
You’re very welcome…I don’t see eye to eye with a lot of the material on this site (which may be why I stay up to date with it) and so I’m glad you found my post informative and not a waste of time and space.
BigJ,
Thanks for the update. I was in Peshawar for about 3 months in 1962. Got a little flavor for the locals but no profound insights.
I also has some experience with permissive action links as pertains to nuclear weapons. That knowledge supports your contention that the nukes are not a major concern.
Roy
I have no doubt Obama wants the country destroyed, and if it’s nukes, so be it. What I can’t figure out is if he’s so narcissistic that his “mission” gets accomplished, what happens to Mike and the girls? Does his twisted desire preclude the safety of his own family?
I disagree that Obama wants the country physically destroyed… assuming that by “the country” you’re talking about the USA.
I believe Obama wishes to “elevate the United States to it’s full potential as the humble leader of social democracy, friendship, peace, love, non-pollution, hope and change throughout the entire world”
In our system, that’s going to manifest itself with enormous government, many elements of socialism, and at least a few elements of fascism.
In my opinion, if Obama succeeds in this drive, it WILL destroy the country… but not physically… only ideologically.
Right on the money. You’re a great American, Eric.
who do you think will sweep into its military facilities to nab their storehouse of 100+ nuclear weapons?
In an ideal situation, that would be Navy SEALs, Army Rangers, Marines and enough trucks & drivers to move 100+ nukes out of the country.
Ok, yeah, that ain’t happening.
If the year was 1890 and Pakistan was still part of the British Raj (British Imperial India) you can bet a number of different troop divisions would be forwarded to the region to suppress anti-western behavior.
But we’re a Democratic Empire (or a Federal Republican Empire) and as such our use of force in a country (Pakistan) we’ve been traditional allies of is unheard of and politically suicidal…at least for now.
Oh no, If McCain/Palin won maybe I would not be worried, If Hillary called the shots as President I still think there would be no problem. But Obama, Biden and Pelosi can’t fix this problem.
Pakistan would be in the same place regardless of who one the last election and both McCain and Obama (that is to say whoever was president) would be faced with a “damned if I do; damned if I don’t” situation. I understand your frustrations over the current C&C, but the Pakistani situation is outside the control of American Political Factions, the Executive Branch and our military – - – barring a declaration of a protectorate of the country (which not one of America’s viable mainstream or third parties is capable of). What you want is an Imperial Nationalist – and not even GW Bush was that.
*Who WON I should’ve said. Sorry for my grammar slips.
it’s pronounced “PAK-E-STAHN”
I thought it was POCK-EE-STONN.
You owe me a new keyboard, JackDaddy!
I’m pretty good at cyber-impressions.
Here’s my Mel Gibson from Road Warrior:
“Oil drave thet tinkuh!”
Hi Hillbuzz,
How are you guyes doing,i hope good, i was away for a while, i want to whish you happy Easter(sorry for delay)
I missed browsing your webside,you guyes are great.
This is one reason I love hillbuzz. I have not heard this news from any other outlet on the Internet, and this is BIG! Thanks for letting us know. As always, you guys rock!
I heard that nuclear weapons have a shelf life due to radioactive decay, which alters the precise geometry needed to kick off critical mass and fission. Otherwise it’s no more than a dirty bomb. They need their material recycled and to be reconstructed, maybe every seven years. So at least any missing USSR ones would be taken care of, if not accounted for.