Final 2012 Election Predictions: Romney wins White House, GOP keeps House, and Republicans take Senate. 100% chance that Nate Silver’s career collapses into ruin.
Since today is Saturday before the election and I think voters are mostly committed to what they are going to do next Tuesday, I think it’s time to lock in my personal expectations for what’s going to happen as we conclude the 2012 election season. As of sometime around 9pm CST, Mitt Romney will be declared our 45th President in what will become a commanding lead of 322 to 216 electoral votes. Republicans will hold the House and expand their majority there by a few seats…but I think that will be a gain of around 3+ or so; in thinking about the span of time from 2010 to 2012, I think voters are as-angry or a-little-more-angry than they were at Democrats since the midterm elections so I believe the House will be more or less where it is now and any changes that happen will be to the Republicans’ advantage. The Senate will also fall securely into GOP hands, but I’ll get into those numbers below.
It will be interesting for me to see how close my results come to what actually happens on Tuesday because I 100% believe all of the polls are being manipulated purposefully by pollsters to give Barack Obama a psychological advantage in this election. I directly accuse almost everyone involved in polling of rolling the dice with their reputations because these people honestly want to do anything they can to allow Barack Obama an advantage…and so they are willing to risk the destruction of their reputations to push him over the finish line if they can. Since this is the first time in American political history when they’ve ever done anything like this, I think that a lot of people have not picked up on the fact that there is not a single reputable polling outfit left. On top of that, I also believe that a great number of Americans out there are purposefully lying to pollsters to make them look bad on November 6th…as punishment to the national media for being such a Ministry of Truth for the last four years and churning out nonstop pro-Obama propaganda.
Because I believe the talking heads will melt on the screen come Election Night because none of the results coming in will match the polls the Left relied on for their mental health in the last days of this campaign, I intend to watch MSNBC all day next Tuesday because I want to document in real time the implosion of the Ministry of Truth. This is the only time in my life that I will ever say this, so mark it in the history books, but I encourage all of you to watch MSNBC if you can on November 6th because decades from now you will want to describe to your progeny how unhinged the Left became on live tee-vee as the Obama Regime came to an abrupt end. This would be like you being able to tell someone in the future that you were there when Mount Vesuvius erupted and leveled Pompeii…and you had time-traveled back to sit in a lounge chair and sip chianti while you watched it all happen LIVE.
Before I get into the breakdown of what I think is going to happen I want to talk about why my prediction is so different from what you are probably seeing on other conservative sites (and is, of course, the polar opposite of what Nate Silver is saying). Frankly, I’ve devoted the last five years of my life to American politics and it has been quite and education. In that time, I’ve observed three constants in play during the 2008, 2010, and 2012 elections that I think need to be considered when scrying into the future to determine what’s going to happen in a race:
(1) Almost everything the media tells you is a lie designed to help Democrats and there really is a de facto Ministry of Truth that serves the Left on the tee-vee, over the radio, and in newspapers.
(2) Conservative websites are pessimistic places run by straight males who are deathly afraid of being mocked if they’re wrong about predicting a Republican win…but are never concerned about being called out for saying that a Republican will lose (since conservatives are so happy the Republican wins in those instances that euphoria-induced amnesia means there’s no downside for a conservative writer to lowball a prediction). I think this is crucial in the 2012 race because I still see conservative writers freaking out their readerships by claiming “Obama’s going to win Ohio!” when that, to me, would be like saying “Obama’s going to lose Massachusetts!”. Neither of those things are going to happen, but it carries almost no negative consequence for a conservative writer to scare his readers by insisting Romney will lose Ohio…since when Romney wins his readers will be too thrilled by the win to ever remember how much that guy freaked them out in the lead up to the election. Conservatives are very kind and forgiving people by nature…and so conservative writers play with their emotions to generate web traffic, counting on there never being any professional consequences for doing this. I really hope you’ve learned some lessons from all the “fear porn” churned out this election at various conservative sites and will ask questions starting November 7th about why any of these guys decided to freak you out over Ohio needlessly.
(3) The Tea Party is real, it exists, it never went anywhere, and is more fired up than ever. This is something that almost no one writes about because Tea Party Americans are not holding rallies every day anymore…because they are too busy doing actual work behind the scenes to win this election. The Ministry of Truth (Minitru, for short) tried pretending the Tea Party was just an astroturf, manufactured outfit like Occupy Wall Street was for Democrats…but they are dead wrong. The purpose of the Tea Party rallies was to recruit Tea Party Americans into action. Once Tea Party groups were staffed up, they began working hard and no longer needed recruitment drives. This is how a real political movement operates…and how results are won. All predictions that Minitru makes of an Obama win or a close election are based on the Tea Party having disappeared and of Americans actually liking Obama more in 2012 than they did in 2008, which is madness.
(4) The biggest reason Obama won in 2008 was because Americans got sucked up into the biggest fad ever to hit the country in many years. I am talking about a fad along the lines of the Cabbage Patch Kids, pet rocks, neon friendship bracelets, McRibs, New Kids on the Block, Beanie Babies, etc. Combine the fact that Americans wanted to be part of “hopeychange” with the fact that many saw Barack Obama as the sort of “magical black man” character that Will Smith always plays in movies and you will understand that Obama won election because a great many white people thought he was the “magical black man” who’d come to save them (like in the movies!) and they wanted to be part of “making history” when that happened (alongside all others sucked into the fad). Minitru keeps trying to believe that instead of all this emotion that Americans actually decided with their thinking brains that they wanted to take the country to the Left and transform it into something radically different than has existed for the last 235-odd years. That’s madness. 2008 was not a “transformational election” but a massive fad that hit the country like a hurricane…and for the last four years we’ve been cleaning up the damages. Every poll, news article, or analysis of this election is flawed because it’s based on the conceit that voters choice Obama because they liked what he would do to the country…instead of the reality that people had no clue what Obama would really do and instead just wanted the magical black man that the media loved so much to have a chance to dazzle them. When Obama not only failed to dazzle, but actively harmed the country, Americans decided he had to go.
Though Mitt Romney will win this election (decidedly…and it won’t even be close) on November 6th, 2012 I think that Barack Obama actually lost his bid for reelection on May 21st, 2010 — which was the day that Nancy Pelosi rammed Obamacare through the House (without any Democrats even reading the bill) over the objections of Americans who resented Democrats abusing their power in this way. An argument could be made that Obama actually lost reelection on December 24th, 2009 because that’s the day the Senate rammed Obamacare through in a partisan vote with no Democrat Senators ever reading the bill either…but I’m going with the House vote date for when Obama lost because few paid much attention to the Senate’s Christmas Eve machinations since Democrats timed the vote to happen during the holidays so they could get away with it.
That House vote, however, seared Obamacare into people’s minds and made Americans realize the only way to get rid of it was to get rid of Obama the first chance they had. The 2010 elections were, thus, a warmup…and the first opportunity that Americans had to boot Obama’s allies from power. I maintain to this day that Harry Reid would have lost his Senate seat if Sharon Angle had been a better candidate against him…but this only proves that voters WANT to get rid of bad Democrats but require a decent Republican alternative to do so.
Clearly, Mitt Romney has proven to be an alternative to Barack Obama that Americans view as a remedy to everything they haven’t liked in the last few years. Minitru keeps telling you that “it’s almost impossible to unseat an incumbent!” but in reality it’s that an incumbent president only loses reelection when the challenger presents himself as a stark and acceptable REMEDY to the incumbent…and that’s the very definition of Mitt Romney.
Just so we are clear, I mocked Mitt Romney for four years and tried everything I could to stop him from being the Republican nominee…and in all that time I never found a line of attack on the guy that would stick. I also never discovered any dirt on the man…and boy did I try. I never wrote about all the many hours I wasted chasing leads in attempts to find anything despicable the man has ever done…because I turned up empty every time. Mitt Romney is a great guy and will make an excellent president. Americans who are so fatigued with having an enigma like Obama whose past is cloaked in surreal mysteries will be overjoyed to have in office a man with nothing to hide and no skeletons in his closet. I dare say that Mitt Romney might just be the most decent human begin to ever become president…with the unique qualifications to lead the country out of an economic depression and back towards solvency. The guy who turned around the Olympics and saved Salt Lake will do the same thing to the country from Washington…and I look forward to the day when I can shake his hand and thank him for agreeing to serve and save the day.
I don’t think the polls or other conservative writers are picking up on just how exhausted Americans are with the nonstop outrages and bizarre mysteries of Barack Obama and the Leftist gang of Chicago thugs who went to Washington with him back in 2008. On a very personal note, the way I feel right now is EXACTLY the way I felt when I was in a bad relationship with a really terrible guy named Harvey and I had finally made the decision to break us up and move on with my life. I wanted the weirdness to end. I was sick of wondering what stupid or crazy thing would happen tomorrow. It was time to remove all of Harvey’s awful relatives and terrible friends from my orbit. I just reached the point where I wanted Harvey out of my life so that I could move on.
I think that nationwide Americans are desperate to breakup with Barack Obama and Mitt Romney is our valiant rebound guy who we can enthusiastically rush towards.
At this point, the only people who will be voting for Barack Obama will be:
(A) Confirmed Leftists whose only gripe is that they wish Obama had done more Leftist things in his term
(B) People who just like having a black president because they vote on skin color
(C) People who will vote for any Democrat no matter who that person is
I don’t think A+B+C is enough for a Democrat to win a national election, ever.
If it was, then Nancy Pelosi would still be Speaker of the House and the 2010 midterms would have looked exactly like the 2008 election. No matter how much Minitru will try to claim this, the United States is not a Leftist country. It is a center-right country and most states do not default-vote Democrat.
On Tuesday, you will see the Democrats’ safe states shrink to the smallest number since Ronald Reagan, largely because Mitt Romney appeals to Midwesterners very much like Reagan (perhaps even more so because Romney was a businessman, not an actor, so no one is worried about Romney being able to handle the job the way some were of sending a matinee idol to the White House in 1980). The only “safe” states for Democrats this year are: Hawaii, California, Washington, Illinois, Vermont, New York, Connecticut, Delaware, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Maryland, and the Capital (since DC is not a state but it gets electoral votes equal to those given to the lowest-represented state in the country).
This is a massive pendulum swing from 2008, when Republicans saw their own “safe states” reduced and threatened by the Obama fad.
Now that the fad has been extinguished, the pendulum has sliced through the Democrats’ firewall and is obliterating them in states that were normally viewed as “safe”. While I’m predicting that Mitt Romney will win 322 electoral votes, that number could actually be even higher because I think this could be a tidal wave for Republicans that has been building since 2009 when the Tea Party first formed in opposition to Obamacare and the Left’s agenda after Obama took office. I think that 2012 is the year that Democrats actually have to be afraid of losing Oregon, Minnesota, New Jersey, and Michigan…which would be like Republicans having to worry about losing Oklahoma, Texas, Alabama, or Georgia. This is a BIG DEAL that it’s even in the realm of possibility that Oregon, Minnesota, New Jersey, or Michigan could be swing states. Never in my life did I think that would happen.
This is what finally made me realize that, yes, Mitt Romney will win Pennsylvania…a state that has teased Republicans for years. But if Pennsylvania is really a swing state and is not guaranteed to fall to Democrats every election like California or New York, then 2012 is the year that Republicans win it. If not, then we can never call Pennsylvania a swing state again and must accept it is permanently lost to the Left because of Philadelphia’s control over the state. But, since I don’t believe Pennsylvania is like California or New York…and that it has to vote for a Republican sometime…I think that Mitt Romney is probably the only Republican it would ever vote for. Barack Obama’s War on Coal and his 2008 remarks calling Pennsylvanians “bitter and clinging Midwesterners” might have been enough of a push to put Romney over the top.
Ohio is a no-brainer and is not even a swing state; it’s going for Romney because it gave Obama a chance in 2008 and he blew it. Ohioans are loving and decent people who are fair and will give an opportunity to anyone…but they will fire someone who does not deliver the goods he promised. Such is Obama’s fate in Ohio.
I gave New Mexico to Obama because I looked back on past elections and have seen that more often then not this state votes Democrat, so it might be a sort of Delaware of the west. Since Delaware, Connecticut, and Rhode Island aren’t leaving the Democrats’ column this year neither is their cousin out west. I have to admit I have never been to New Mexico and know little about life in the state; as much as I like Governor Susana Martinez and hoped she’d be able to carry the state for Romney I just don’t see evidence that her personal charm can overcome New Mexico’s tendency to be the “Delaware of the West”.
I do think Democrats lose Nevada though, because I don’t see how a state that depends so much on Las Vegas to survive can reelect the man who crippled the tourism industry in Vegas back in 2009. I enjoy reading columns by Steve Wynn, the casino magnate, and he talks about the volcanic anger towards Obama in Nevada. Minitru is putting Nevada in Obama’s column just because Harry Reid won reelection in 2010…but as noted above, read would have lost running against someone other than Sharon Angle. If you remember the focus group that Frank Luntz ran in Nevada the night of the second presidential debate you’d remember how angry people were there at Obama. How on Earth do they reelect him?
Here in Illinois, Obama’s going to win the state by the smallest margin ever for a Democrat; he’s actually going to come incredibly close to losing Illinois because enthusiasm for him is so low in Chicago’s Cook County. Democrats only win the state because they pull big numbers from Chicagoland. But I think in the end Romney will come up short in Illinois…but it will be fun to watch Democrats sweat here a little.
Final Result for the Electoral College: 322 Romney to 216 for Obama (but it could actually end up being as high as 337 Romney to 201 Obama if Minnesota and New Mexico surprise us).
***********************************************************
For the House and Senate races, the logic I am operating under is that there are few instances where vote-splitting will be happening AGAINST Mitt Romney…so I am assuming that the vast majority of people heading into voting booths will be voting for both Mitt Romney and the Republican running down ticket from him for the other races in that state. There will be some exceptions to this…and in Massachusetts I believe that Scott Brown will win his Senate race because many people will vote for him for Senate but will vote for Obama for president (because Elizabeth Warren is a much worse candidate than Martha Coakley was so I can’t understand how she’d win while Coakley lost when Brown has done nothing to alienate his 2010 voters and Coakley has done little to steal those people away from Brown).
I think that every state that Romney wins will also push the Republican to the win in that Senate race too. Therefore, I think the Senate races will look like this:
Nebraska = Republican win
Arizona = Republican win
Connecticut = Republican surprise win
Florida = Republican surprise win (I’m basing this on something oddball, and it’s that a lot of voters think that “Connie Mack” is a woman…it’s actually a man named “Cornelius Harvey LaFontaine Beardsley Hiperion McGillicuddy XVII, or something bizarre like that; so he calls himself “Connie Mack”, which makes people think he’s “that actress that used to be on Hotel in the 80s, but now she got married”. Florida is going to go to Romney and I wonder if Floridians are big vote-splitters and will back Romney for President but the Democrat for the Senate. Why would the do that? ”Connie Mack” sounds like a nice lady so why not vote for “her” with Mitt Romney? You might laugh, but I think this will really happen but no one wants to talk about it because it’s so ridiculous. The reason I believe this is happening is because I have five different friends who live in Florida but who don’t have tee-vee and all of them think “Connie Mack” is a woman. They only see “Connie Mack” written in a paper and don’t see a picture, so they assume it is a woman. I think this helps pick up the seat).
Indiana = Republican win (that garbage about abortion is not a big enough deal to vote split no matter what Minitru says)
Massachusetts = Republican surprise win
Missouri = Republican surprise win (because I don’t know how someone could vote for Romney and then agree to keep on ObamaClaire)
Montana = Republican win
Nevada = Republican win
North Dakota = Republican win
Ohio = Republican surprise win (because I don’t see Republicans vote splitting…and see no reason why Mandel would not get votes from the Romney voters in Ohio)
Pennsylvania = Republican surprise win (because Smith rides Romney’s coattails here and there’s no vote-splitting against him)
Virginia = Republican surprise win (I think people have forgiven Allen for the macaca stuff 6 years ago and see no reason to vote split against him in a state Romney will win)
Wisconsin = Republican surprise win (because I think Romney/Ryan win Wisconsin and with it the Senate seat too)
Hawaii = Republican SUPER SURPRISE win (because it’s so strange to think that Linda Lingle beat Lazy Mazie for the Governor’s race a few years ago…so why would Mazie win the Senate race this year? I think Hawaiians are vote-splitters and will vote for Obama but elect Lingle; of all these Senate races this is the one I am most on the limb with and it’s all based on the Lingle vs. Lazy Mazie gubernatorial race and the fact that Hawaiians have rejected Mazie’s attempts at higher office before, so why go with her now?). I have an 80% chance of being wrong on this Hawaii race…but I just see nothing in Lazy Mazie to make me think this latest race between her and Lingle will go differently than the last one.
Maine = Democrat pickup (though Olympia Snow was always a Democrat with an (R) after her name)
Michigan = Democrat
New Jersey = Democrat (because that prostitution scandal doesn’t affect the votes in Jersey for Menendez)
New Mexico = Democrat, only because I think Obama will win the state so why would there be vote splitting here?
Washington = Democrat, because Obama wins this state and the Senate race here
West Virginia = Democrat, because I think West Virginians vote-split all the time and have a habit of making bad choices with Senators (See: Byrd, Robert K.K.K.)
TOTALS:
That makes it 15 wins for Republicans by may count, with just 6 wins for Democrats…for a net of 9for the GOP.
I think the low end of things would be about a net of 4 or 5 for the Republicans on Tuesday, which provides for some vote-splitting in states that Romney wins but the Republican running for Senate loses for some reason. But I do believe that Republicans will control of the White House, the Senate and the House.
I’m not going to do a rundown on House numbers because I have not had time to follow all of those races closely. I do think that Romney adds seats in states that he wins and that people voting for Romney in general will vote straight down ticket as well…which could lead to a lot of surprises.
I really think Debbie Wasserman Schultz loses her seat in Congress because of how poorly she’s looked in everything she’s done in the high profile position Democrats gave her. She’s too affiliated with Obama not to lose, because I can’t imagine people voting for Romney in Florida and then vote-splitting to vote for DWS too.
Nancy Pelosi will be ousted as Minority Leader in the next Congress and will retire some time in early 2013. A special election will have to be held to replace her. Pelosi is not going to spend her last years as a former Speaker who has no power and is just another member of the herd. So expect her to be moving back to San Francisco for good around the same time the Obamas are moving to Hawaii.
Conclusion:
I do believe this is a giant wave election for Republicans and that Minitru and even conservative writers are missing that fact.
There is just no enthusiasm for Obama or Democrats…and people are tired of all the bizarre things that have happened in the last four years. I think Benghazi is a story that will only be understood in retrospect because most Americans realize Democrats are lying about what really happened there, even if they don’t understand what went down. The White House is clearly lying and Minitru is helping the White House lie…and I am surprised every day by people who know little about the news or politics who tell me “something is fishy about all that Libya stuff and Obama is lying”. This has made Democrats I know not want to bother to go vote…and it’s fired up the independents and Republicans I know to race out to vote against Obama.
We’ve never had an election where the following three things have happened before (so I think Election Night is going to be just madness):
* The Left has been assured by Nate Silver that there is an 80% chance of Obama winning so they are not mentally prepared to see a map where Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are in Romney’s hands. Expect epic freakouts on MSNBC over this. And then never expect to hear from Nate Silver ever again. He will need to go into hiding like Salman Rushdie. I hope he is enjoying his last three days as a mini-celebrity.
* A great many conservative writers know Romney will win but are using the last few days before the election to terrify their readers to drive up their web traffic through fear porn. They THINK that people will be so happy that Romney wins and Republicans take the Senate that people will just forget how much they were scared before the election. I hope there are professional consequences for anyone who pushed this fear porn…but since Republicans are amnesiacs most of the time, I doubt there will be. Which is a shame, because anyone who pushed fear porn hurt a lot of good people who got scared and upset for no reason just so a few sites could make extra money by driving up their web traffic through shouts of “SHARK!” when there were no sharks in the bathtub to be scared of.
* The Ministry of Truth completely lied to the American people and didn’t care about the damage it would do to its reputation. They went all-in and broadcasted from an alternate, fictional universe in this race. What happens to them next?
This is the 2012 race as I see it in the last days of the campaign.
I want to take this opportunity to thank all of you out there who have been providing me with consistent ground reports and anecdotal intel for the last several months, because your reporting from the ground shaped my understanding of this race and led me to my conclusions. We’ll see who’s right on November 6th, but everything I have seen, heard, and read from real people directly contradicts what all the “experts” say…so I think my projection will be closer to reality than any of the Eeyores or fear porn peddlers out there.
I also want to thank everyone who has been letting me know about the latest fear porn stories and shouts of “SHARK! that they see posted online. It’s so helpful to know who is spreading this fear porn and what they are saying. I tried to use this essay to counter most of it, but if I missed anything please chime in below and tell me and I will address it in the follow up tomorrow. There is no reason to be afraid, because we are going to win BIG.
Nate Silver, on the other hand, might be applying to Arby’s soon because that prediction model of his is cuckoo and the Democrats who buy his fairytale are the ones that need to be afraid of what’s to come on November 6th.
CHIME IN BELOW WITH YOUR THOUGHTS ON THE ABOVE.
What am I getting wrong?
Go ahead and tell me what you really think. Because the risk in putting a projection/prediction together is that after Election Night nasty trolls will want to rip me apart no matter what, since I’m human and none of us can be exactly right on anything. But I think I’m picking up on trends that others are missing…and I also think that things are going to roll our way this time, because this is the year that will happen (if it’s ever to happen at all).
On Election Day, I’m going to camp out in front of a live stream of MSNBC and do rolling historical coverage of the results and what the MSNBC talking heads in particular are saying. I think I’m going to start at about 10am on the 6th and will go through the late evening after Romney wins covering everything that’s being said. I am going to get a honey baked ham for Justin and myself and will be making some other treats that remind me of Wisconsin, Michigan, Massachusetts, Michigan, and Utah. I think it’s just going to be Justin and myself and maybe a few other friends, but I hope you will join us here on HB from time to time throughout the day to see how close our predictions come to reality.
I think I will be much more right than wrong, though…and I think I’ve called more than a few things that will be “surprises” to everyone else.
© 2012, Kevin DuJan. All rights reserved.
Help HillBuzz by Shopping Amazon
"Bee" Advised!
I look forward to your comments. Please follow these simple guidelines:
- Please do not complain about your comment not yet showing up
- Stay on topic of the article ("This is OT, but..." = bad!)
- I will STING if you troll, spam, bait, swear or attack someone
How do you think the Florida Senate race between Bill Nelson (D) and Connie Mack (R) will go?
Connie Mack by 9
That was the one I was wondering (being in Florida). Personally, I’m thinking Mack will take it. I haven’t seen a single Nelson sign, not ONE, but Mack signs are EVERYWHERE. People are pretty pissed about Nelson’s Obamacare vote too. We’ll see on Tuesday, but conservative enthusiasm is crazy high and I really can’t see people voting Romney (and wanting him to repeal Obamacare) while keeping Nelson (who was one of the deciding votes for it). Just my two cents.
Nelson doesn’t say anything, there is a myth that he is a moderate, but there is no proof. The media creates myths about Dems being Moderate, they never are when push comes to shove.
Dess, that’s a good point about the lack of yard signs. I’ve seen more signs for our dead tax assessor than for our incumbent Senator.
In fact, the only sign with Nelson’s name on it was an anti-Nelson sign.
Maybe I’m being unduly pessimistic. I hope so!
I’m afraid that Florida will split its vote and reelect Nelson. Mack has run a lousy campaign.
BTW, Connie Mack’s father (Connie III) was a popular Florida Congressman and Senator up until 2001. That’s probably the main reason people will vote for him.
The only one I’m not 100% sure you’re right about is Illinois.
I think there may be a chance the Romney votes win.
WHI thinks Oregon may surprise this year, and I agree with him. That one’s going to come down to absentee ballot counting.
Not based on what WHI says, but on what I see & hear in Oregon. I have to agree that Oregon is definitely in play here:
Lots & lots of Romney/Ryan signs & bumper stickers and almost nonexistent “O2012″ bumper stickers. No “O” signs on I-5 from Salem to Portland, even Corvalis area showing RR all over.
The Statesman Journal, Salem, has endorsed Mitt Romney. And the Oregonian, Portland, will not endorse either candidate. This is very telling. Both papers are very afraid of losing anymore readership. The SJ lost our a month ago because I could no longer stand their crap. Just out of their support we may resubscribe…maybe.
The “O” (just can not bring myself to say that name) has been spending a lot of $$$ on TV ads in my area that started in August…over & over & over. And yes, our TV is still intact, hubby hasn’t thrown his shoe through it yet
Last night I saw my first RR SuperPac ad & I was thrilled. It was in good taste just like our next President.
If Romney DID somehow win Illinois, I wouldn’t take any bets on how long Rahm Emanuel will remain vertical. Have the vibe that something horrible will happen to him if that comes to pass.
No possible election surprise would make me happier than to see my birth state of IL refudiate The Won en masse. Not that it would ever make me think of moving back there, but it would be a huge thrill nonetheless to see Bathhouse Barry defeated in the state where he got his political start. Is Crook County really all for him? Or just pretty much Chicago itself, and counting om massive fraud? Because I’ve heard about a lot of Romney support in the suburbs…
C’mon, Illinois!! Flush out the Obastard!
Out here in fly-over country (Indiana) we are voting for Mourdock for senate instead of Joe Donnelly because we are pro-life and kind of, sort of almost understand what Mourdock was trying to say.
ALSO there’s NO WAY we are voting for Donnelly. Although he comes across as a decent, sensible man, he lost his head when he went to Washington and did whatever Nancy Pelosi said to do.
He promised here at home that he would not vote for Obamacare, then he did.
With our elderly parents affected by changes in Medicare, we are saying “no to Joe” as some of the yard signs say.
I’m concerned about this one. Some Lugar Republicans are abstaining from voting for anyone for Senate and the Libertarian candidate is doing some damage to Mourdock.
Lugar is a traitor for not getting behind Mourdock. If he cared about getting rid of Obamacare he would be helping Mourdock.
Donnelly is a leftist, he will pretend to be a moderate to win. But people should learn Party matters first.
You know, I’m so sick of the lefties deliberately twisting what Mourdock said, just as they twisted what Akin was trying to say. Mourdock said that if a woman becomes pregnant as a result of a rape, the PREGNANCY is God’s will, not the rape. The BABY is God’s will.
The media asks those stupid rape questions of men, especially, because they then say stupid things because they are uncomfortable with the whole discussion. I’m so sick of hearing about abortion, and the media will NEVER give a pro-life candidate a break. NEVER!
Even Akin’s stupid comment really had to do with stress having a negative impact on a woman being able to conceive. I can’t tell you how many women I know who have gone through fertility treatments and been told by their doctors that the more stress they have in their lives (even the stress of trying to become pregnant) the less likelihood they’ll have of conceiving. One of the first things the docs tell these women to do is RELAX. Now, I can’t imagine what could be more stressful than being RAPED, so I have thought all along that Akin was really trying to say that rape is so stressful that it is unlikely (not impossible) for a woman to get pregnant as a result. Again. Stupid to tell a reporter that. But not necessarily wrong.
OK, rant over. And, BTW, I am a pro-life female.
DG -
I always like what you have to say. Nothing from you is a rant.
I really want to brand Democrats as “the party of women killing their little babies”.
Put that way, it drives Independents away from Democrats in DROVES.
There’s a PAC here in MO running a very effective (to my mind) pro-Akin ad that basically says, “Yes, Todd Akin’s says all sorts embarrassing things but he’ll enable Mitt Romney, who you like, to save America, so you should vote for him anyway.”
I think this is effective because it a) gives people a good reason to pick him in a race in which NO ONE likes either candidate, and b) it points out the stupidity of voting for “the person” for legislative office. A horrible person who votes for the agenda you favor is a better legislator than a good person who doesn’t, on a general level.
It’ll be interesting to see how Akin does. As I said before, around here at least (and this is a conservative area), no one, not even the people who are planning to vote for him, likes him, and I would estimate that the number of people who will vote for him and not cop to it afterwards is going to be high. I suspect, for that reason, he’s underperforming in the polls by a good bit – because no one wants to admit to voting for him.
You make some good points, but Akin really is an idiot about rape. The fall of Berlin in 1945 was (to say the least) rather stressful for all concerned, and yet the estimated 100,000 women raped by Russian troops produced plenty of children in 1946, and without the abortions and suicides there would have been even more.
After Akin, it’s bizarre that another Republican politician could be drawn into such a discussion. Yeah, I get that whole “rape” thing. But having said that, if you want to know the effect of “rape” births, talk to those who were permitted to be born – you can start with Eartha Kitt. Also Wendell Goler, the Senior White House and Foreign Affairs correspondent for Fox. BTW,
Let’s speculate on Nate Silver’s future career move. I think some Jersey municipality may can use him to predict how many rats will die in the next major hurricane. Accuracy in that regard is measured in horseshoe increments.
I’d place the odds of Romney winning Oregon higher than the odds of Lingle winning the Hawaiian Senate seat. Either would be a pleasant surprise, of course.
We all have to have one unicorn in the race. Mine is the Lingle Hawaii seat.
It’s just weird to see a rematch where the person who won last time loses this time…for no good reason.
That’s why I think Lingle can pull it off.
I have not studied Oregon enough to understand it so I take your word on that.
My husband and I were on vacation in September in Oregon, starting in Portland and driving south into California. As we drove outside Portland proper, we started seeing quite a few “Wake Up, America!” signs that were clearly anti-Obama. So there may well be something going on there.
Oregon comes down to one thing and one thing only. If the Obama campaign can get its people to vote, hell win, albeit by a much smaller margin than 2008.
If the same drug-addled idiots forget to put stamps on their ballots, then it’s anyone’s guess…
Obama knows if he doesn’t win Oregon by 5% without trying he has already lost.
In 2010 they voted for a GOP Lower House and almost won the Governors seat. They are strong to win the senate seat in 2014.
If the base is fired up and Obama’s crowd stays home Romney wins it. Obama is at 47% in the latest Poll Romney at 41%.
I trust your analysis Kevin. You’re a straight shooter and an honest man, far more than Rasmussen, Rove, Morris, or Zogby (remember when he was taken seriously?). You’ve never wavered from telling the truth, even when some of the less crooked pollsters have taken the opportunity to tighten things up for profit here and there.
I thank you, and think many other people out here appreciate you for being a lone voice of reason in a chorus of Cassandras.
Thank you, thank you, thank you!!!
I am hopeful!
Have you seen this? You were right. The natives are not happy with the dems.
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/11/02/Black-Grassroots-Activists-Protest-Obama-Fundraiser-City-Hall-and-ABC-News-in-Chicago
I hope every one listened to this good advice
http://www.hillaryis44.org/2012/11/03/dont-forget-to-change-your-clocks-on-saturday-and-your-president-on-tuesday/
Tom Smith is doing very well in the polls here in PA– he’s made up something like a 16 point gap in the last two months. So many people all over the state believed Casey was like his father (and yes, his father was a big spending Democrat, but he was very pro-life and somewhat socially conservative). When he ran against Santorum a lot of us (me included) said, it wouldn’t be horrible if he won, he’s a conservative Democrat. Wrong.
Appreciate your work, especially the watching of MSNBC.
It’s surprising to me that Republicans can win the governorship in IL, but can’t get the same percentages of votes for President to take the state. I know they have a Dem in now, but it has gone Republican in the past.
Same in Ohio, Same in NV, same in PA…it’s the same group of people voting – meaning everyone in the state who is eligible can vote for those two offices – governor and president – same pool of voters. So what gives?
What’s the deal? Maybe Obama stirs up the black vote more, and that group of voters doesn’t bother with voting for governor.
When a Republican wins Governor in Illinois, he will more than likely be a moderate. Of the GOP Govs we’ve had in recent years, Jim Thompson was the most conservative and we’re over 20 years since he was in office.
George Ryan may have been the most liberal of the bunch (He was the one to suspend death sentences in the state), and would have been vulnerable in his last run but the Democrat that ran was a Baptsit pro-gun, pro-coal, Dem from Southern Illinois and did not get as much support from the Metro areas. HE is now running SIU. (Some would say “Into the ground,” but he’s running it.) Ryan’s legal issues helped to sweep in Blaggo which begot Pat Quinn.
I hope when all of this is over, you’ll write a book about the 2012 election. You actually have the bulk of it already completed, just select your chapter order and get it published. You’re the only one I’ve seen who has been able to accurately assess and then verbalize the sociological, psychological and even the technical aspects of this election.
Thank you.
I actually need to start getting ebooks published. I just have a lot going on all the time.
I freelance as a ghostwriter so when I’m not doing HB stuff I am pumping out content for technical manuals, annual reports, grants etc. That’s how I pay the bills. Then I do gossip writing and entertainment coverage under an alias to make some income that way…and that all takes a lot of time.
HB takes up about 8 hours a day. The freelancing is another 8 hours. I spend two hours with Justin and get about 6 hours of sleep.
And that’s life right now.
What would Justin do if he got. Another hour? Lol. I love your site. Your perspective has really helped me stay sane. Thank you!
Justin likes being listened to. He also spends HOURS worrying about if people are mad at him. Last night we had a rare treat and went out to dinner because I met him downtown and we were going to see a movie but it wasn’t until really late so we had a long time to kill. So we splurged on Chinese in a restaurant…the first time we’d been to eat out in probably 7 months. Normally, when he wants to tell me about all his fears I am working and I don’t have more than a few minutes to listen…but at dinner I said “You can have this whole meal to talk about all the things you are afraid of”. And he did!
It’s always stuff like, “I’m worried that Agatha hates me because when I went to ask her for a report I needed because someone wanted it from me she was mad because she said that she doesn’t do those reports, but I thought she did and now she hates me. I don’t know what to do”. It’s always weird stuff like this that bothers him. No one is mad at him. He’s very sweet. It would be like being mad at a puppy. But he collects these little obsessions and them makes me listen to them all.
Last night I had like three hours of that.
I hate to admit this, but I can totally relate to Justin in that. I am much more sensitive than I’d like. I guess in a way it’s also insecurity. For example, I have this irrational fear that if I leave first (any gathering) people will talk about me. If someone snaps at me, obviously that someone is mad at me. People like me…I’m fun and sweet; but, I’m also terrified that people don’t like me. It’s twisted, but I recognize it. It’s good that you let him get it out, even when it drives you nuts. I have a guy like that too, thank God. Otherwise I would be a total nutcase…and I’m sure Justin would too if he didn’t have you.
Dess –
It’s funny, but I’ve never cared about people liking me. I do admit that when I was first outed as the author of this site and my name got out there and I had people attacking me by name for the first time, it bothered me for a year and a half. I got obsessed with finding out who the people were who kept attacking me…and the thing was that they knew me and could attack me in real life but I only knew them by internet aliases. So I had to file criminal complaints and get court orders and have lawyers find out who these people were…and it took forever…and in the end they were all really sad people. One was kid who literally lived with his parents and his mom begged me not to sue and that she would keep him offline, and she has. She’s a nice lady, with a bad kid. Another was a woman who was attacking me from her work computer during the day in her office…and so I filed a cease and desist with her firm and they made sure she stopped. Another guy was doing this from his job, too, at a grocery store somewhere. And I think he got fired for it.
But, I had to choose to either not let these people bother me or to spend the rest of my life going through all the work of figuring out who each of them were. It’s funny, though, because just going after a handful had a chilling effect on the others in cahoots with them.
That nice lady I mentioned who died last week, Barbara Curtis, wrote a site about parenting tips and she had a handful of stalkers and trolls who attacked her too…and she wrote about PARENTING TIPS and was the sweetest person. So, no matter who you are or what you do someone out there is not going to like you. You can’t control that.
But you can control your response to it. Justin will learn how to take care of this. Just like I did.
Thank you so much for giving so much of your time, money, and energy to create, manage, moderate, research and write for Hillbuzz. You have personally kept me sane this last month with your “Daily Doom Antidote”!
You are the best!
Yes, Kevin is the best. I found this site about a month ago and it has been keeping me sane. Keep up the great work.
Kevin, When you’re ready, I can show you how to get ebook published by an Indie publisher, or other methods, including self-published. We can talk after the election, and you will find your way into that realm. (Non-fiction always out-sells fiction.)
You have my contact info! Contact me when you’re ready. (I have 5 books at 4 publishers.)
Newt Love
I have been coming here since it started and have loved every minute.
Kevin, your assessments make great sense to me. My only question is, “Who is Nate Silver?”. Not being sarcastic, I’ve never heard of him. I’m guessing I’m saner as a result.
Ann –
Nate Silver is this little guy that the Left loves. He’s on MSNBC all the time. He is from the New York Times and does these statistical things that he claims show there is an 80% chance for Obama to win. He shows Obama winning Ohio and Virginia and Colorado and all sorts of places that aren’t realistic.
ALL of the Leftist websites, Facebook pages, etc. are only staying held together because people say, “Nate Silver says Obama will win!” and they believe he’s like someone from the future who traveled back in time and is infallible.
And for that reason I said a few days ago, “Nate Silver is not God. Just sayin’.”
But I found very interesting that someone looked around the “Bible Code” to find a Romney victory.
I never heard of Nate Silver before ’til last week if that means anything.
They’re right. Nate Silver can’t be wrong. Just like if I use his way of predicting I can’t be wrong either.
If I say there is an 80 % chance of rain and it doesn’t rain, was I wrong? No, I had a 20 % chance in there!
So Nate can NEVER be wrong just like he can NEVER be right.
His method is like filing in all the answers on a multiple choice question and then saying, “You see I was right because I filled in the correct answers too!”
I predict a 99.9999% of a Romney landslide.
I had to google his name! lol no clue who he was either…
I went way out on the limb and predicted 184O/354R a few days ago. I have a bet with an ex-Obama guy that he won’t reach 220. I’m now thinking it will be more like the low 200s, but I think I’ll win the bet and the stuff that’ll come with it!
Did you know Barone has 223O/315R, very close to your prediction?
I’m seeing too many Hirono ads this late to think she has it sewn up. She is not liked in the state; Lingle is. I’m with you on that race.
My main worry is 11th hour voting. You don’t need to publish this Kevin but you might remind people about it.
http://txfellowship.blogspot.com/2012/10/11th-hour-voting.html
Nice synopsis, and agree on virtually all points. My only quibble- would swap Michigan for either Iowa or Nevada.
Don’t have nearly the numbers to back my assertions that you do. But….
I grew up in Michigan though, and think barky’s about done there- Lord knows my all my lefty Michigan facebook chums have absolutely gone schtumm about their earflapped clayfooted idol.
As ever- thanks for everything you’ve done and continue to do.
You crack me up!
“This would be like you being able to tell someone in the future that you were there when Mount Vesuvius erupted and leveled Pompeii…and you had time-traveled back to sit in a lounge chair and sip chianti while you watched it all happen LIVE.”
Read more http://hillbuzz.org/
I cannot wait to watch MSNBC on November 6th. All day, wall-to-wall. I intend to record as much of their coverage as I can, do numerous replays of it, slow-mo’s when they learn that Obama is going to lose, everything. Stuff that will make the Zapruder film and analysis look like a gloss-over.
Nate Silver is a dorkier version of Ezra Klein, if that’s even possible. I can’t wait until he’s dispatched to the Phantom Zone for good. It’s long past time.
Pennsylvania is a lot like Ohio. The main difference is Philadelphia. But the rest of the state, including Pittsburgh, consists of Reagan Democrats and straight-talking Americans who don’t like to be scammed or conned. They are kind, but once you’ve crossed them, you’re out.
The primary reason that some on the right think Ohio might go to Obama seems to be concern over voter fraud. I can’t think of any other way in which Obama could even come close there on Election Day.
We now have less than 100 hours to go until Mitt Romney is declared as the next President of the United States, and the nightmare of the last 5 years is over, officially. The sound the world will hear on Tuesday will be the collective exhaling of a burned-out, overwrought nation finally having the chance to remedy it’s mistake of 2008. As you analogized with your ex Harvey, Kevin, people are just aching for a chance to put this debacle behind them.
I can’t wait until Tuesday.
Amen ! Me too .
Agree w/ you on N Silver. Time will tell who’s right, but as of now, I half way expect him to peddle a 53.7% chance that Ann Romney will vote for Obama.
This made me laugh out loud, Good Captain. Thanks for that great joke!
Kindly accepted and great fully appreciated!
Thanks InTheKnow!
The Dems tried to steal Ohio this week. They got a Federal Judge to agree that if you showed up anywhere in the county you live in, but not your precinct, and voted, your vote would count *in the day’s totals* (i.e., not provisional).
Fortunately, the 6th circuit said “Uhh… no.” and reversed the judge.
Just think about what they were going to try on election day with if the judge’s order had stayed intact.
When the news comes down on Tuesday, I’m going to have the best night’s sleep I’ve had in four years.
On Wednesday, I’m going to buy a bottle of the best damn champagne my local store carries (they had a few bottles of Cristal one Christmas, which were gone within two hours of being put out).
And when the Thanksgiving turkeys appear in my local grocery Wil also start planning my outdoor Christmas decorations early. Haven’t felt like putting up lights for four years. It’s going to feel great to look forward (pardon the pun) to it again.
Woo Hoo, Brat! I’m with you in spirit, baby!
Amen ! Me too .!!!!!!!!!!!!
Tried to post this a minute ago, but the page “timed out”, so here’s the amendment to my original post again, as close to verbatim as I can get it:
Okay, I promise I didn’t buy that bottle of Cristal early. My fingers just had a conniption, that’s all.
The second paragraph should read, “And when the Thanksgiving turkeys appear in my local grocery store, will buy the biggest one that will still fit in my oven. Will also start planning my outdoor Christmas decorations early, yada yada yada . . . ”
Sorry about that!
(And please overlook it if this amendment posts twice)
I tried Cristal once. It was not worth it. I did not like the taste. Although it has quite the punch. My husband didn’t want to waste it cuz it was so expensive. He passed out on our wedding night…lol
You plan sounds much like mine, although, I am sticking with the cheap stuff.
Vernors!
Awesome, Air Force Brat.
Like Kevin, many of us have felt like we’ve been living in an occupied nation for the last 5 years. And it has nothing to do with Obama’s race, either. It’s about the tactics and aggressiveness of his group and followers.
After living in this nation since 2008, I now understand why ex-patriots from Communist nations have such a strong reaction to Obama. This is a taste of what it must have felt like to live in the Soviet Union or Communist Romania.
As Kevin wrote about in a previous post, there is a silver lining in all of this. Now, Americans have once again seen the reality of what Progressivism truly is. It’s not pretty butterflies and cute teddy bears. It’s boot-in-your-face, nasty, divide-and-conquer plunder. This is the first step towards totalitarianism folks. So take a good look and remember it. Tell your children about it.
In 1935, Sinclair Lewis wrote a book called “It Can’t Happen Here.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/It_Can%27t_Happen_Here
Of course, the antagonist in the book (Buzz Windrip) runs against, and defeats, lefty icon FDR. Just so you know that he’s not a ‘good guy’ like FDR supposedly is.
The truth is, as Jonah Goldberg pointed out in his book “Liberal Fascism,” whenever there has been a creepy, fascist-feeling moment in America’s history, you will almost always find a Left-wing, charismatic leader behind it. Woodrow Wilson. FDR. Obama.
Wilson destroyed the Democratic Party and the label of “Progressive.” Just as Obama has destroyed the Democratic Party.
As Kevin has pointed out, these things go in cycles. Thankfully, our generation has gotten this taste of Hard-leftism and will be done with it in 4 years instead of 8. As Kevin pointed out in his prediction post — and I very much agree with him — the most damaging (possibly) of Obama’s “successes,” ObamaCare, is also the vehicle that engineered his pending defeat on Tuesday.
In the balance, I will take the exchange. And there is still a good chance ObamaCare will fall apart or be repealed. But had it not been for that piece of legislation and all of the theatrics around it, we would probably be stuck with Obama until 2016.
Now, he will be gone. And so will the Left-Wing Charismatic Dear Leader Savior Politician for another 30 years. I’m glad it happened on our watch, so we could make sure that person was defeated.
And it’s going to be one heck of a party on Tuesday and Wednesday. Enjoy! It’s been a long, long fight.
Don’t waste your money on Cristal, buy some Veuve Cliquot instead. I went to a New Year’s Eve party in NYC several years ago. Many of the party guests were hopeless wine snobs. For fun we did a blind taste test of champagnes. Veuve Cliquot won hands down over Cristal and it only costs about $35-$40 bucks instead of $250 – $300. I buy mine at Costco or Total Wine. Just because you’re super excited about Romney doesn’t mean you need to be spending like a Democrat.
Even better…if you need something bubbly to drink, make your own!
Get some club soda (about 89-cents at the store).
Find your favorite fruit juice (can get an expensive one like tangerine or watermelon or guava).
Put a little juice in a fancy glass…then fill with club soda.
Tastes better than champagne, has less calories, and is something that President Romney and First Lady Ann Romney would love to drink too!
I won’t tune into MSNBC until the polls close in the east, and stay tuned until I fade out. (The day job makes me get up on “dawn patrol” and that makes me sleepy early.)
If I miss anything, like Chrissy’s head imploding, I will catch it on reruns.
Amen !
Susquehana predicting Mitt will take PA by 4
In what could prove to be a brilliant campaign move, the Romney campaign hid details of a Sunday campaign appearance in Pennsylvania until after the Obama team released their final campaign schedule. Now, a new poll by Susquehanna Polling and Research shows Mitt Romney leading Barack Obama by four points in the Keystone State, 49-45%. Critics have been dismissing Susquehanna’s tight polling for over a month based on little more than the fact that a Republican presidential candidate hasn’t won Pennsylvania since the 1980s. George W. Bush came close, however, in both of his campaigns. Republicans also took the US Senate seat and Governor’s mansion in 2010, despite Pat Toomey being called “unelectable” by the media.
If Romney wins Pennsylvania, the race is over. If the Obama campaign and the media ignores Susquehanna’s polling, they do so at their own peril.
****************************************************
While the left called Romney’s move into Pennsylvania “desperate,” it could prove brilliant. If Romney wins Pennsylvania, as Susquehanna suggests he is on the verge of doing, he no longer needs Ohio, Wisconsin, Nevada, Iowa, or New Hampshire. Of course, if he does win Pennsylvania, he stands to win some of those states, too. At this point Romney isn’t just looking for a win. He is looking for a mandate.
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/11/02/Pennsylvania-s-Most-Accurate-Pollster-Points-to-Romney-Win
I have been assured by a trusted contact in Pennsylvania that the state is absolutely in play.
I know the state well, and I know that the wide majority of people in the state are not fans of Obama. Including in Pittsburgh. So, I think only Philly can save Obama. I think he is going to need a large turnout in Philly to hold back what seems to be a Romney surge there. And based on what my source tells me, I’m not sure that turnout is going to be there to save Obama.
Two words: Catholics and coal.
‘Nuff said!
Kevin, I don’t know if you remember this, but I told you two months ago that PA is going to be a Romney win. (and you told me no way!) My girlfriend said the same thing as Congress Works for Us….they have a large Catholic population, Obama’s attack on coal has people angry, and also…they are hard working people and are disgusted with the unemployment rate and the number of people on gov assistance.
Romney is gonna win PA. Count on it!
The black sheep of our family is working for the Obama campaign in Philly and they are apparently running around like chickens with their heads cut off.
Which is why Romney waited for the last minute to campaign there. Rigging the system involves manpower and setting certain things up. Now the left is scrambling to knock on doors and get out the vote in Philly.
Except with only three days to do it, it’s very overwhelming. Plus they’ve got to worry about Ohio, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and so much more. Mitt’s got them scrambling to patch up their crumbling firewall. Meanwhile, he just keeps the pressure on with a big ole’ “Try and stop me!”
Kevin, I will give you a medal for watching MSNBC all day…… I can’t even turn that channel on ever! I like your predictions….not because they support what we want but because they seem fairly spot on from other places I’ve been visiting (not all doing the fear porn obviously).
Wait until the evening, after the poll results start coming in, then it should be a little more tolerable. Or, you could just let Kevin gleefully tell us about the MSNBC meltdown!
But that’s not nearly as fun as getting to view the implosion first hand!
WOOT!!!
Kevin…
With access to a DVR or TIVO, you could even record the meltdowns and put together a montage of the best ones for us later….
Just sayin’
I’m watching it on a live stream via the computer, so I don’t know how to record that. But someone out there will TIVO it or something.
I don’t have tee-vee so I watch it all online.
I think you are very accurate about West Virginia. They will NOT vote for Obama, but anyone else with a D after their name is a good bet. They are really what I think of as the last of the Reagan Democrats for the most part.
Their values are more conservative, but the whole state is involved in machine politics otherwise. You can look at Manchin’s voting record to see that.
Do not be surprised if at some point over the next 4 years, Manchin throws his lot in with the Republicans.
I think Kevin is right about the impending Dem civil war, and Machin is definitely a Clinton-ite. I just think that Benghazi is going to “turn out” to be a Clinton failure (even if it wasn’t), and that the Clintons wont necessarily win the civil war. (I don’t think Obama will either, which is what makes things really interesting…)
Manchin is a leftist, no moderate. He is very loyal to Harry Reid.
West Virginia is like Arkansas but Arkansas will have 100% of their House members republican in 2013 and Peyor will go down like Blanche Lincoln in 2014.
Rockafella is losing to a GOP Congresswoman by 5%.
My family out in Oregon think Romney has a good chance of winning their state. They say they have never seen anything like it before.
AnonMom –
Can you give us any insight into what’s different?
What makes them think that?
K
Florida isn’t mentioned. Mack or Nelson?
Sign waved at local early voting today in Fl. It was a 3 1/2 hour wait!!!
Thanks Denise —
I don’t know how I forgot Florida. Thank you for reminding.
It will be Mack, because a lot of people think that’s a woman.
I will explain above in a minute.
Kevin, I’m in Orlando, FL. I think the reason Connie Mack will win has nothing to do with his name (we’re used to it because his dad was a Connie, also). His win will be because we are SICK to death of the creepy, Obama-supporting Bill Nelson. I’m ashamed that he was ever an astronaut. PS There are TONS of Romney signs everywhere!
I am in Florida, too, and see Nelson going down in flames. It’s about time.
One thing you are not hearing about lately is the Allen West / Patrick Murphy race. Wonder why that is? Our little local leftie newpaper has done nothing but trash Col. West over and over again since, well, forever. Also been showing Murphy in the lead. Horsepucky! West is gonna take this election handily. When you have a spolied liar brat like Murphy up against a true patriotic American hero like West, only the truly indoctrinated would vote for Murphy.
I’m waiting for Election Day to cast y R/R vote. This election is too important to allow lefties to even TOUCH my ballot with their filthy, grimy fingers.
Nelson was NEVER an astronaut!!!! His ad makes me so sick, he says “when I flew into space…….” He was a passenger on a trip into space. He was invited because he was a Senator. We lived in Ohio at the time, we were visiting in Fl and kept going up to the Kennedy to see a lift off, it was cancelled sevral times due to ice forming on the shuttle, finally it lifted off with Nelson on board. The next shuttle was the one that blew up and halted the program for a long time! My daughter and S-I-L referred to us as shuttleheads!
Well he does have a very nice first name!
I like what you said about Connie Mack’s name, because if I was not paying attention to the political race and didn’t know Connie was a man, that is exactly what I would do, vote for the woman.
Hey Kevin,
I live in NJ…I think it could swing. Romney/Ryan signs everywhere!
Really shocked me!!
I know it will be hard to round up busses for election day! (No gas anywhere).
Anyway, I have been here since 2008 and can’t thank you enough for all you do and your insight.
Watching MSNBC is going to be a hoot!!! Can’t wait!!
Been listening to The Fifth Dimension’s “Let The Sunshine In” to get ready for Tuesday…..when our four year nightmare will be over!!!!
Dubs, I hope you are right! I’d love to be in a red state on election night! I do see a lot of Romney signs around and very few Obama signs … so maybe I am letting myself be too “eeyorish” about my state … and that’s bad … so I will try to think good thoughts about NJ swinging red this time around! Thanks for being positive!
why has the media not covered the Menemdez scandal it would be a huge story if he were a Republican.
Email that story to everyone in NJ by Monday and it will be a pick up.
Hillbuzz write a post telling people to email the story to every in the state, lets win another seat!
This was Tweeted by Matt Druge a little while ago. Just so that we are reminded of how bad polls and pollsters are. Here are the accuracy results from the 2008 election.
Look at Marist – 15
Look at CBS/NYT – 19 (this is the Q Poll of Quinnipiac University)
These two genius polls are saying Bathhouse Barry is going to win Ohio in 2012. Yeah right!
The following list ranks the 23 organizations by the accuracy of their final, national pre- election polls (as reported on pollster.com).
1. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**
1. Pew (10/29-11/1)**
2. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)
3. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)
4. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*
5. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*
5. ARG (10/25-27)*
6. CNN (10/30-11/1)
6. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)
7. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)
8. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)
9. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)
10. FOX (11/1-2)
11. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)
12. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)
13. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)
14. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)
15. Marist College (11/3)
16. CBS (10/31-11/2)
17. Gallup (10/31-11/2)
18. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)
19. CBS/Times (10/25-29)
20. Newsweek (10/22-23)
Matt Drudge
I think your assessment of how things will go on election day is right on, Kevin. I have felt that PA was a possibility for quite a while now, living next door in NJ. I wish that i could say the same for NJ. I think there are a lot less Obama supporters in NJ this time around, but still a lot of them.
Ran into a typical one today. Was helping out getting things sorted to be sent to shelters for Sandy victims. The rep of the charity running things at the warehouse was talking to a guy from a film crew who had been taping some of the action during the day. They were talking about when to meet to review the film and the rep said, “oh any day but Tues. – I have to get out and vote.” The film crew guy said, “Obama, right?” Charity rep: “Yes, of course. I am an intelligent, informed individual. Not a bigot or a racist, so how could I vote any other way?” and they laughed their little arrogant laughs at the people stupid enough to vote for Mitt Romney.
My back was to them and I guess they thought they were private enough that no one could hear them. They did say that they were disappointed in Obama’s first term, but not giving up on him. They did not go into detail about whether their disappointment was due to the bad economy or that Obama did not go far enough left. They did say rhetorically to each other … “of course you know what will happen to the arts” if the election did not “go their way”.
Later the woman was talking about her two little girls and I thinking that it was sad that she was fine with her children’s future being mortgaged to Obama’s spending and the huge national debt.
I can’t wait to escape this state some day. I meet people who think that way all the time and it sickens me how they think they are just so smart when really, they don’t have a clue. No, I did not jump in because I felt it would not be appropriate to make what was supposed to be a day for helping Sandy victims into a political thing, but I had to work really hard to keep my mouth shut as i was so angry. Glad my back was to them.
You have Minnesota blue, but Romney leads 46-45 with a +13 indie advantage:
http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/11/aff-poll-minnesota-a-tossup-148296.html
Ace –
Because so many socialist-minded people from Scandinavia settled Minnesota and they tend to vote for oddballs up there, I’m not sure Romney wins it.
I will say this: if Romney wins Minnesota then I bet he also wins Oregon and New Jersey and New Mexico too.
If the moon bats in Minnesota desert Obama enough for Romney to win, then ALL BETS ARE OFF and we really could see a scenario where Democrats lose almost everything but California, New York, Hawaii, and Illinois.
Kevin – not necessarily. Like PA, there’s a high Catholic vote in Minnesota. (And Jewish too.)
The MN poll has one flaw. The internals show 500 likely voters contacted by phone and cell phone, but they ignored the usual leftist moonbat forms of communication the crystal ball and disembodied voices. That being said we are witnessing the same type of collapse that Jimmy Carter went through against Reagan. The real significant point in the MN poll is that Obama got just 45%. For an incumbent that’s death. The undecideds always break for the challenger.
“…we are witnessing the same type of collapse that Jimmy Carter went through against Reagan…”
That’s what I’m seeing from the swamps of Georgia. Let’s hope it ends up like that. Implosion.
Watch it happen live!!!
The GOP should be clobbering Amy Klobuchar for her Obamacare vote. GOP should have been spending big, Bachmann is in danger.
Al Franken 2014 needs to be stopped. GOP controls both state houses and no one predicted that.
Obama sent Clinton up there, he is worried.
Hey, for Tuesday, pick up a shoefly pie if you can find one. It’s a Pennsylvania original. I’ll be watching for PA to go Romney.
Kevin and everyone …
I believe those 2 professors from U.Colorado who did that polling model on the economy in every single state in USA and they did it twice, once in May/June and again in Sept./Oct. Their prediction was Romney wins Electoral College by 320.
I believe you are 100% right Kevin that the GOP wins big all around and Mitt and Paul will have all the help needed to fix and turn-around this ailing and sick country which Obama ran off the road.
I also know that the internal polls favor Mitt and Paul but take nothing for granted. We must work really hard on Nov. 6th and get out the vote and make sure that we win BIG, not marginally where the other side will contest for every single thing; but landslide.
We can do it because never underestimate the American people; they believe in God and Country first and those words God Bless America mean everything to us; progressive leftie are a minority and they need to be put way back and never given power because they screw up big time.
All we have to look at this week is NYC, liberal Bloomberg’s failure and Benghazi, the liberals covering up a colossal international mess.
Americans are not in the dark about Barack hussein Obama; they know this man is not good for our country and he spells disaster.
Very good picks . You missed 2 states Mich by 8 and NJ by1 1/2 . I still believe in the 2010 results . If the polling gods are willing maybe Minn. by one tenth of a % point . Well I can dream , can’t I ?
This poll by Washington Times is accurate and McLauglin relies upon it … easy read from this link:
http://www.facepunch.com/showthread.php?t=1222622
if it does not open up do search Washington Times poll McLaughlin
it is a new one and reliable for a poll.
On Tuesday,November 6th, we need to get out and work, get the vote out, be proactive and make Mitt our 45th POTUS. Mitt Romney will be an outstanding president and this country will be proud once again. We are so lacklustre under Obama and he is keeping this country down with his ineffective policies and his total inexperience governing anything, and he is overseeing the most powerful country in the world and look where we are today.
No more doom and gloom with BO, kick him out and bring on strength and experience and the Team of Romney and Ryan are outstanding. Who needs Obama/Biden, they are a joke and I am being kind!
Kevin, you are not getting the recognition that you deserve. I’ve emailed Drudge to add a link to your site.
Hey everybody! Do the same! Let’s get Hillbuzz on Drudge!
Done!
I did the same thing last week.
Done.
I live in a Red State and most of the feed back I’ve been receiving is women are tired of being degraded down to our “ladyparts” by the Dems. To listen to their speeches, ads, and even the MSM one would think sex is the only thing women think about! There is a War on Women being waged in this country but it is the Dems who are waging it in their desperation to get us on the Democrat Voting Plantation. I don’t know if Soccer Moms in Swing States feel the same way we do in the Red States but we have had our fill of telling us to vote with our Ladyparts and all we think about is reproduction.
I don’t know if this helps, I live in a Red State and most of the feed back I’ve been receiving is women are tired of being degraded down to our “ladyparts” by the Dems. To listen to their speeches, ads, and even the MSM one would think sex is the only thing women think about! There is a War on Women being waged in this country but it is the Dems who are waging it in their desperation to get us on the Democrat Voting Plantation. I don’t know if Soccer Moms in Swing States feel the same way we do in the Red States but we have had our fill of telling us to vote with our Ladyparts and all we think about is reproduction.
Kevin,
Hawaii may go red. Spoke with a good friend of mine living in Hawaii and she said that everybody there is fed up with Obama and will be voting for Romney. They do NOT want him moving here. No way. No how. She said the last time he was there, it was a nightmare getting from point A to point B because of all the security. Needless to say, he ruined a bunch of people’s Christmas vacation plans.
I think it would be rolling on the floor while screaming funny if Hawaii goes red. It would be like saying “Obama…..go somewhere else to live.”
Oregon will probably go red as well. Just a gut feeling.
No chance, but the Senate Seat is needed, Linda is a huge Plain fan.
Palin would campaign for her but Palin wouldn’t help her sadly.
I was in Hawaii (Honolulu) in the Spring. The people we talked with that lived there (wait staff, locals on Diamond Head, etc) were not fans of Obama and were really upset at how bad the economy was. The tourism was really down due to the economy and if affected their incomes. One native told me that if it were not for the US Military stationed there, Hawaii would be like a 3rd world country.
I don’t often post Politico, but when I do *we’re winning* !!
AFF poll: Minnesota a toss-up
http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/11/aff-poll-minnesota-a-tossup-148296.html
I can tell you that my office has its technology center there and when our health benefit sign up came open last month, there was a big big cry, especially from MN. We went from $20 co-pay to catastrophic insurance (have to payout $3500 before it kicks in for the most expensive choice and $10K for the cheapest). ACK.
The most brilliant analysis I have seen, and I spend about 12 hours a day these days reading about the election.
You said about a dozen insightful things which cannot be read elsewhere.
This election is about to “transform” America back where it should be, run according to the Constitution.
Please forgive my following observation. Ace of Ace of Spades is, in his own way, the only other writer as brilliant in his observations as you. The two of you have different povs, but something amazingly in common, which is an original, rare, pov.
Your analysis of straight conservative men is so needed in the public discussion. But keep in mind, Romney is the essence of the straight, conservative white man. Romney’s understanding of the world is what we need.
That understanding is cautious and pessimistic. The caution and pessimism should not necessarily be confused with defeatism and lack of will. Reagan and Romney are the rare men who “get it” — who have transcended the emotional and psychological gloom of natural conservatism. Churchill is another example. So is Thatcher. Profoundly insightful, empathetic human beings.
Lincoln was another Conservative who kept his eye on what needed to be achieved. He was great, Reagan was great, and Romney will be great.
Your commentaries are lovely, free, deep, and so human.
From an agnostic, I say God bless you.
I just read a TWEET by Howard Kurtz that Obama was going to win with 276 EV’s or something like that… I do not honestly know where he got that info….or why he thinks that way, just passing it on… Kevin’s #’s make more sense.
Nate Silver begins a*s covering:
“for Romney to win, state polls must be statistically biased”
Great stuff!
Link?
Where did you see this?
Because that is the first sign he’s trying to save his career.
Some of us predicted this weeks ago…
He caved last week using a football analysis when pressured. he basically stated that if there is 4 min left in the 4th quarter and you are up by three then 75% of the time you win. Then he said that take into account the quality of the defense, the quality of the quarterback on the other team etc…
I think DaTechGuy had it, but I’m not sure. He was basically setting himself for multiple excuses why he will be wrong.
It’s clear to me the Tea Party has them in a mess. It can’t be measured or controlled. The ruling class in DC is going to soil themselves in less than 100 hours.
JGC
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/03/nov-2-for-romney-to-win-state-polls-must-be-statistically-biased/
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/03/nov-2-for-romney-to-win-state-polls-must-be-statistically-biased/
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/03/nov-2-for-romney-to-win-state-polls-must-be-statistically-biased/#more-37099
Here it is, Kevin:
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/03/nov-2-for-romney-to-win-state-polls-must-be-statistically-biased/
Would love to see Debbie W-S lose. Nothing she says is true. She spins so much her head looks like Regan’s from The Exorcist (in more ways than one).
She has a ad running down here with her talking about family values and with a montage of her in the kitchen with her family and at the ball park.
The key is she had to buy TV ad time. No way is she a lock. Karen Harrington signs everywhere. Not just yard signs, but large ones on properties and small businesses…even billboards on I-595.
Schultz signs showed two weeks ago in common areas but the outer winds of Sandy took care of them. They are gone. She was at a Dolphins game shaking hands recently as season ticket holders entered a special entrance.
And last, there is a billboard on I-75 north in the heart of her district that says “Obama..Oy Vey. Had Enough?” The Jewish vote was a key part of her base.
http://www.americanthinker.com/2012/10/obama_oy_vey_american_jews_finally_have_had_enough.html
John,
Thanks for the welcome news. I hope K is right and the left implodes after this, along with their media toadies. When truth is distorted to an agenda. as the left has done now for years, we are on dangerous ground. This election offers proof to the words of A. Lincoln: “You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you can not fool all of the people all of the time.”
I’m curious why you have Arizona as Likely and not Solid? I have not seen one single Romney or Obama commercial since the primaries. There have been a few PAC commercials but they are few and far between, so I don’t see it as anything but solid.
As for the Arizona senate race, the latest that I hear is that Flake has pulled away from Carmona (thank God – we haven’t had a democratic senator since DeConcini) and he looks like he will cruise to victory. It has been a hard fought race, though, with tons of misleading and deceitful ads from the Carmona camp. I’ll be glad to see that one over with!
One congressional race to watch here is Republican Martha McSally vs the guy who took over for Gabrielle Giffords whose name I cannot remember without looking it up. That has been a traditionally blue district, but with redistricting (we gain a representative this election), it’s split more evenly. McSally is a former Colonel in one of the military branches and she is definitely someone to watch. I’d love to see her take that seat, so send good thoughts (and prayers too) for her on Tuesday!
yeah, I call that Democrat Santa Clause.
McCain carried that district in 2008 and McSally could win it if Democrats don’t show up.
Flake has to win, that Democrat isn’t a moderate.
I believe that the American People are sick and tired of Obama and his lies. He should be impeached over the four deaths in Benghazi, the lies from all of them make me sick.
I haven’t been this PO’d since September 11, 2001. It took eleven years to get me this PO’d. I think that Romney and Ryan will win in a landslide.
I vote for the candidate, not the race, sex, etc. I am voting for Scott Brown. I am a registered republican and had a call from an Elizabeth Warren supporter. The libs are so stupid they think I will vote for her only because I am a woman and she is too.
I got calls from Coakley in 2010, and Hillary in 2008. It’s time to kill liberalism for the next 50 years.
Lefties are loony
Living here in Florida I hand carried our absentee ballots to the election office because I don’t trust the USPO. I can’t stand to see Bill Nelson on teevee he looks like a mouthy worm. The 3 judges are all libs and got Big No’s. I have gotten a dozen friends who have never voted reading Hillbuzz and other sites and all are voting. Can you believe a 63 yr old voter virgin!
Enthusiasm gap in Massachusetts senate race:
Scott Brown in Lowell last week:
http://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.10151201453783168.486228.178795233167&type=1
The current Mayor and several former Mayors of Worcester, MA, held an “endorsement rally” for Elizabeth Warren yesterday:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TbtwrUtCEU4&feature=player_embedded
On Sharon Angle you are 100% right. The TEA Party nominated some awesome candidates and some candidates which said good things but were rubbish at communication.
Sue Lowden would have beaten Reid, but some TEA Party members found faults with a solid conservative woman.
Also Susan Norton would have won Colorado and Palin backed her but some TEA Party people found fault with her and stopped 2 conservative woman senators being elected. So now we only have Kelly Ayotte as a woman Conservative senator.
So the TEA Party select candidates for 2014 now, and coach them into how to sell conservatism, no Todd Akins or Bucks or Angles.
send us Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Sarah Steelman, Nikki Haley et al.
Sue Lowden is who I liked in that race in the beginning. She would have been great.
yes, i Remember you and Hannity were pushing her. The Ron Paul drones backed Angle, she was lovely but you don’t send an unemployed Grandma to take on Dingy Harry who is the biggest political hack ever.
Now I can tell you what I have seen! 1,000,000 phone calls made to swing states out of 4 offices in Utah! A 12 year old girl who made 20,000 calls by herself! 40 people going by bus to Vegas from St. George Utah every weekend for the last month knocking on 1000s of doors! A group from Salt Lake of at least 100 every weekend for several weeks knocking on doors in Colorado and Nevada! Hundreds from California knocking on doors in Vegas! Virtually no enthusiasm for O! People I have called (about 2000) almost never say they are for Obama. They say ” I am a democrat” and hang up. We are not going to lose people! Just keep fighting to the end!!!!
Kevin will Drudge tell us who wins the election early, or will he tease us so we keep on refreshing his page.
Remember Wisconsin recall, he told us Walker would win and then start teasing us saying it is tight.
Lets all write to Drudge telling him to tell the truth.
Rae –
He’s a showman. He will tease.
I will tell you as I find out.
I will be here all day at the computer.
thank God. Been with this site since it backed Hillary. I kinda followed the voting trend of this page, moderate Dem to Moderate Republican to Palin/TEA Party Republican.
When President Romney takes office in January 2013, he should direct the FCC to “disband” MSNBC or better yet go after the left-wing media as a whole and prosecute them for sedition.
Don’t worry, MSNBC will destruct on it’s own. More people will see it as a worthless news organization. Eventually, it won’t get the viewership that it needs to survive and go nowhere but down and away.
No, no, it’s better for them to exist. You know how scientists keep poisonous snakes and diseases and such things around to study? That’s what MSNBC is: a great way of knowing what’s going on in the minds of the left. And it’s only mildy virulent, as hardly anyone who’s not already infected watches it.
Oh, no. We need MSNBC to stay right where they are. If we disband them, they’ll scatter and we can’t find them.
LOL @ Kevin’s FL friends for thinking Connie Mack is a woman. They musn’t be very long-time residents, or they’d have surely remembered his dad, Connie Mack III, who had a very long career as a Congressman from FL and then as a 2-term US Senator.
Kevin, to change the subject, I think that, just like “liberal” and “blogger”, another word that you should strongly consider replacing in your vocabulary is “Obamacare”. While it’s better than calling it by its Orwellian official name (as it is neither about protection or affordability), I think Obama really loves it when it’s called Obamacare. That’s because a.) he is a narcissist and b.) he thinks it is a very good thing which he’s proud of.
Me, I just call it Socialized Medicine, because that’s what it is. (Well, it’s a crap sandwich, too, but so are a lot of things the Obama administration has given us!)
He actually hates “Obamacare”…but he was forced to accept it because people wouldn’t call it by its real name.
Lefties HATE seeing Obamacare written…they want people to call it the Affordable Care Act…they get MAD when they see people write “Obamacare” on Facebook or whatever.
I’ll be doggoned. I did not know that! Maybe it’s not so well known outside of the social media? (which I have no experience with)? I don’t get around socially that much online, I’ll admit. But down here, I’ve gotten so sick of hearing the word “Obamacare” spoken by the entitlement brigade leftwingers in such superior, haughty, and even (dare I say) reverent tones, that it sticks in my craw and makes me want to retch. Personally, I don’t like to say or hear “Obama”, excerpt as a synonym for something nasty, and of course the “care” part of it is a complete joke. And when I refer to it as “Socialized Medicine” in front of such types, they’re the ones who look miffed, because I won’t say “Obamacare”! (Go figure What a world!)
Hearing “Obamacare” makes them as mad as when I call them lefties. They hate that too.
I bet McCatskill(sp?) would hate it if everyone started calling here “ObamaClaire”
I caught that one Kevin
Oops. Her not here.
Obama-scare sounds good or rather, sounds bad!
I predict that Romney will out poll all the Senate candidates for the GOP in all states bar
New Mexico
Hawaii
Mass
Connecticut
Nevada
GOP needs to destroy the moderate Democrat, as they don’t exist in Congress even thou many Democratic voters are moderate.
Here is a list of Moderates that could give Romney less GOP Senators
Nelson (Florida) voted for Obamacare, never says anything in public because he will show his true colors.
Manchin (West Virginia) Says he is not backing Obama, but backed him 2008 and was head of the Democratic Governors trying to defeat Christie and McDonnell in 2009, he also backs Boxer for chairman of energy committee
Casey (Penn) he is stupid and relies on the myth of his dad a great fr governor. He is a Harry Reid puppet.
Kaine (Virginia) he was a radical left Governor and DNC chairman. But the media calls him a moderate.
Claire McCaskill (Missouri) She is Obama’s number 1 fan. Even with Todd Akin she will lose due to corruption
Jon Tester (Montana) polls have him even, but Democrats are gonna stay home in Montana and Romney voters will be out. He is an idiot and has put new bank charges on every American family
Heidkamp (N Dakota) She is a radical leftist with a shot at winning, but she will probably lose as she is too close to Obama
John Kerrey (Nebraska) has smeared Deb Fisher making the election about her legal issues rather than his support for a more left wing version of Obamacare. He will be defeated due to turnout, but it may be close.
These are 8 Senate candidates standing in the way of the GOP from getting a big majority. The more the GOP knocks off the better.
Heitkamp is not going to win, I don’t feel it. Her campaign is begging for money and Berg is out campaigning and very confident….
If Harry Reid says he is gonna block the GOP agenda, then why go out and vote Romney and then vote Democrat for Senate?.
It is totally insane and a waste of time.
Senate Democrats are drones who will back Harry Reid on every vote, and sometimes vote with the GOP to claim they are moderate but never on a close vote.
the GOP should be using Reid’s comments in ads, it will kill of the moderate Democrats.
Call all Romney Supports and make sure they vote the right way for Senate. The more GOP senators the more conservative the government.
Kevin, your writing is particularily brilliant today. Everything is so clear and logical. We are confident.
Put your ears to the ground and hear a landslide coming!!!
Thank you. Superb analysis, fantasitc writing, lots of hard work and dedication. You called it, Kevin.
Kevin IMO you are spot on about Indiana’s US Senate race. Or maybe it’s just wishful thinking…the dems here are more like Joe Manchin democrats…coal miners, gun toting hunter types. And this is the so called Bible belt! Leftists are in the minority in Indiana. Even those that use the social programs lean conservative.
Kevin, IMO you are spot on about Indiana’s US Senate race. Or maybe it’s just wishful thinking…anyway the dems here are more like Joe Manchin democrats…coal miners or gun toting hunter types. The abortion thing? Whatever! Leftists are in the minority in Indiana. Hoosiers may be simple and seem backward to out of staters, but why complicate things? Where’s the sense in that?
Kevin,
I want to say “thank you” for the good work you do on this website. It is helping keep me sane during these last few days.
I do have a couple of fears, however. Rasumussen’s “Daily Presidential Tracking Poll” has narrowed to a tie when before Hurricane Sandy it had Romney ahead by as much as 4 points. And more concerning is that their “Presidential Approval Rating” has the President’s approval up to 51%. I’ve always been told that a president’s approval rating will roughly equal the percentage of votes that he will receive on Election Day. While I cannot imagine that 51% of people will vote for President Obama when states like PA and MN are in play (something smells rotten . . . ), I trust Rasmussen because they were so accurate in 2008 and I know that Scott plays it straight and is not a fear porn monger. So, I’m torn. All the other evidence shows that the Romney momentum has not abated, but Rasmussen gives me pause and makes me worry that the most fickle undecided voters will use a photo-op to shift back in favor of the president.
What is your perspective on this?
Thanks, Kevin!
The polls are lying.
Stop looking at them.
David Limbaugh had a TWEET out awhile ago that said something along the lines of how the science of polling as it is now can measure 30,000 at a Romney event and that has to be significant.
They know Obama is losing big, but saying it is tight they think will make some Democrats to get out an vote on the 11th hour.
It might happen, but it will not be enough. Drag everyone to the polls and do everything possible. Everyone lives in a swing seat for some level of office.
Every Republican elected in state government is important.
The dems don’t have the same amount of enthusiasm this year as there was 4 yrs ago…. Republicans in the meantime have a whole lot more enthusiasm than 4 years ago…we’re outdoing them in that respect. It will show Tuesday.
Not only that, but secretly (or subconsciously) I believe many Democrats and Regressives (MY term for lefties) want Romney to win and will either:
-Stay at home, or
-Press the button for Romney
Contrary to their leaders, many rank and file Democrats want what’s best for their country. I’m hoping they’ll vote for Romney simply to flush the Leftist Regressives who’ve run the Democrat Party for 40 years our of our nation’s colon, and give everyone TWO parties from which to choose from.
Good advice.
Re: Connie Mack’s campaign for the Florida Senate seat
Kevin, the name Connie Mack is very well known all over Florida for several reasons. The first Connie Mack, who died in the 1950′s, was a very famous baseball player and later a famous club manager, and of course for many decades almost all of baseball’s spring training was done here in Florida. And many people here in Florida still do avidly follow baseball.
His son, Earle Mack, also played professional baseball and managed teams too for awhile, and his grandson, Connie Mack III was in the US House from Florida and later was a Florida Senator from 1989 to 2001.
The current Connie Mack IV has been in the US House for awhile and is now running against Dem Senator Bill Nelson for a Florida Senate seat. And while I voted for Weldon in the Republican primary, as I thought that Weldon was a better conservative and was less of a RINO than Mack, I’m surprised at how well Mack is doing running against Nelson.
And both my son and I voted the straight Republican ticket this election–something that I have never done before–as I just could not stomach voting for any Democrats this year, although I’ve prided myself before on voting for the person and not just the party.
As for the Tea Party, it’s very alive and well here in North Florida. And although it’s characterized as being made up of mostly older people here, the Florida Tea Party as a whole is very computer savvy and very well organized. And it’s sort of like the internet, being made up of a lot of autonomous small groups that do coordinate and communicate as a whole.
And I credit the Tea Party for the Republican Ted Yoho’s win in the new 3rd House District Republican primary over Republican Rep Cliff Sterns here in what’s called North Central Florida–and not the Panhandle part of North Florida. The 3rd House District is mostly rural, although it includes some of the most well to do parts of suburban Gainesville–the Berkeley of the South and home to the University of Florida. And the 3rd District lies to the West of I-75 and North of the Suwannee River, running all the way up to the Georgia border, but stopping to the West as the Panhandle starts. And the Dems were so sure that the almost 20 year conservative Sterns was going to win the Republican primary and then the 3rd House District seat election, that the Dems did not even put any effort into mounting a campaign for the 3rd House seat themselves. So now I think that Yoho will easily win the seat.
And my household cut the cord on cable TV a few years ago, and we will only have the internet and the radio on election day. So I won’t be able to watch the Dems melt down on TV when Romney sweeps to victory. But I did manage to watch Charlie Rose almost melt down awhile ago while interviewing Bernstein about his new book that is quite critical of Obama. Charlie Rose simply could not believe what he was hearing, and he kept interrupting Bernstein, who up till then I’m sure was one of Charlie Rose’s heroes over Watergate.
I’ve been praying for R/R’s victory for some time now, as I have some serious health issues and don’t know if I’ll be around for the next Presidential election. And I fear for my son and for any future grandkids if Obama is reelected. But I come here to your site every day now to be reassured that my innate feelings that R/R will win aren’t just a wishful fantasy.
Lu in florida
If there was one trope about leftists that I’ve noticed, they tend to run on to conservative boards and respond to any comment by starting off a sentence with the word “Actually” and then following it up with their beliefs as though saying that first word will make it fact (even when it’s not). I can only picture these commentators as nasally, skinny hipsters.
“Actually, Nate Silver says…”
“Actually, Obama is ahead according to…”
“Actually, man is at fault for climate change…”
“Actually, there is no evidence that the Democrats ever supported slavery…”
“Actually, non-existent statistics say that foreign oil is better for the economy…”
Long time reader ~ first time commenter. First let me say, I love, love, love your site!
I’m an evangelical christian in Metro Detroit. I often feel like I’m alone in a sea of lefty culture gone wild. But comparing this election season to 2008 ~ the enthusiasm meter for 0 has been dialed down. I don’t see very many BO bumper stickers and very few BO yard signs in my completely lefty town. The lefties at the corner that always have yard signs (and did have a BO in 2008) have a few in their yard (StabeNO ~ Boo!) ~ but noticeably a BO sign has never been displayed! I watch for it every day and it’s still not there!
I have some real hope in Michigan since we were able to soundly defeat a far-left candidate for governor in 2010. It would totally make my life if RR could pull off MI!
Looking forward to your commentary on 11/6/2012. Keep up the good fight!
Why is the Republican doing bad in the Senate race, the GOP won the Governor and both GOP houses in 2010.
Romney is from the state and people love his Dad. Debbie Stabbabbiesnow should be losing.
It’s baffling to me as well ~ some are blaming Hoekstra’s low support level on a dumb advertisement he put out that apparently came across as racists to Asians. I didn’t think it was racist, but it was a huge controversy here. I think it did hurt him. I have no idea after our 2010 results why voters would continue to support StabeNO!
Here’s the ad:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TkQAalcsg5E
Dick Morris just commented on Rasmussen’s latest poll showing a 48 – 48 split.
After months of predicting a landslide, now he is preaching “caution” due to Nobama’s recent improvement.
Looks like CYA time to offer more flexibility.
Romney wins NC big.
What improvement?
Question for folks in Washington state. When did Washington become such a reliably blue state? It seems even more nutty, Left than 10 years agos.
I was born in WA in 192 and lived here all my life but I still don’t understand this state. Why does O win the Presidency but the Governor’s race can be very competitive some years. Whenever we have a good anti-tax initiative it wins and this state has very pro-gun laws. Yet nationally it is a deep blue state.
What’s up in WA?!?!
It should read “I was born in WA in 1972…” Darn ’7′ key works only half the time.
Wow, I thought you were writing quite well for a 1,920 year old man!
I live in Eastern WA, and it pains me to see our state so disgustingly blue. I’m with you, I don’t understand how it became so nutty.
People tend to vote for local/state candidates and initiatives on a case-by-case basis, but the pres. is ALWAYS a democrat. Blah!!
I can answer that:
Californians. They invaded Oregon, too.
Any problems that you find here on the west coast can be traced back to the Californian migration of the 1970s and 1980s.
Kevin:
I happen to live in CT (I know, it’s hard) and the polls are saying that Murphy is up by 4 -9. Murphy is a creep who missed 80% of his votes and started running for Senator the day after he won his congressional seat. Linda McMahon is running one heck of a campaign. No, she is not a conservative like they have in TX or UT but at least she has an R after her name and actually ran a business. I am really hoping she can pull it out but Murphy is running ads that she is going to let company insurance plans drop annual gynecological visits and some of these well educated and oh-so-much-smarter-than-us actually believe this. Makes me want to scream. All that being said, I really like Linda, she fights fire with fire, she is no wallflower. My biggest dream on Tuesday night is to have this BLUE state give a Republican to the Senate (after of course a Romney/Ryan win.) I have been watching this race closely and if there are no shenanigans in Bridgeport like 2010, she could pull it off.
There are twice as many Linda signs but that is in the SW corner of the state. I’m hoping the voters in Bridgeport, Hartford, etc. just vote for the President and forget the rest of the ballot!
My map is the same as yours–even including the one vote from Maine–but my favorite surprise pickup is OR, followed by MN. If I’ve gotten carried away, I still see Romney with enough to win, but maybe losing WI and PA. In the Senate I am not as optimistic; I think Mourdoch goes down but Akin squeaks by, simply because McCaskill is so loathed and is an incumbent (a Dem incumbent is not a factor in IN). I also think Mack loses and think your HI limb is going to break under you
. I think net +4 in the Senate, but I think net +3 is a real possibility. I have no feel for the House, but expect less than 10 votes to shift either way. As is typical, Dems managed to take over the redistricting process even in some states where they are not in power, so that will mitigate Republican gains.
My friends at work (either A or C in your hierarchy, or both) have been reading Nate Silver and were pretty smug late last week, dripping with sarcastic empathy while they predicted I’d feel very bad by Wednesday. Their bubble pops in three days.
You are, without a doubt, my favorite site for election coverage. As a faithful, practicing Catholic, I did not vote for Obama in 2008 but I was still a consumer of the Today show and other left-leaning media. The day Matt Lauer interviewed Rachel Maddow about the HHS mandate was the turning point for me. I started searching out conservative sites and found my way here. There are several I read every day, but you and the White House Insider at Ulsterman are my favorites and where I find the best information. Thanks for all you do, Kevin. Your contribution is invaluable to those of us who don’t have the connections or experience.
Oregon – My aunt knows a lot of people who are planning on voting for Romney. It sounds like the support for Romney is out in the open in Oregon. The day after she told me this, the Oregon Statesman Journal (the biggest Oregon paper) endorsed Romney. In ’08 this paper had endorsed Obama and normally supports the Dems.
Ground report from Redmond/Bellevue, Washington.
There are still lots of O bumper stickers on cars but not as many as in 2008. I have seen exactly one O yard signs and I don’t remember seeing any Romney signs “in town.” Of course, if you drive out a ways into the “country” there are lots of Romney signs. There are lots of other political signs but you rarely see O or Romeny signs. If you didn’t know any better you might not know there is a Presidential race.
My neighbor is a Democrat precinct officer and he has an O 2008 bumper sticker covering the Kerry 2004 bumper sticker but no O 2012 sticker.
I work at a very large software company that starts with an ‘M’ and I think you can get all this information publicly but I have this from an impeccable source. The total dollar amount of personal contributions from Microsoft employees leads donations to Romney from all other technology companies by a slim margin. There were only ~600 Microsoft contributors to Romney and over 2000 for O, which reflects the left-leaning nature of the employee base. The number of contributors to Romney is double the number that McCain had in 2008
You’re right, Kevin, this will be a landslide, I don’t know how to explain it, but, I can feel it in the air!
My darkest days were during the Obamacare back & fourth in 2010. I remember the cornhusker kickback, all of the Bart Stupak nonsense, and Scott Brown winning the Swimer’s seat. Well at some point I felt Obamacare would pass. I just felt it in the air that despite all the opposition the dems would ram it through.
On the day it passed I was damned near crippled with sadness. Then two things happened: 1). Sites started posting links “meet Bart Stupak’s opponent & I watched the man’ FB page go virol. That made me feel a bit better but Stupak was but one man. Then, 2) I came to Hillbuzz. You had a post featuring an actress who I believe was from Murder She Wrote. It was from a movie she was in where she was on a broomstick directing toy soldiers against Nazis.
Anyway you talked about people who were influences in your life & taught you to fight. You basically laid out the war plan we’re seeing executed now & it was just the kick in the pants I needed.
The party should have never turned on Hillary & we who supported her. They torched the bridge for many of us who will never return and, in doing so, lost the brain power & workhorses & are left with only loud mouthed leftist who are long on talk & short on action.
Kevin, I appreciate that you will be watching MSNBC on Tuesday and live transcribing. I can’t stomach watching that network. I work at Microsoft and MSNBC used to be affiliated with Microsoft but that affiliation ended in 2010 around the time they went completely bat, s*** crazy. Many of the TVs around campus have signs by them saying “Please leave this TV tuned to MSNBC in consideration of our affiliation,” or something like that.
Thus all the Microsofties who are left leaning to begin with have been trained to switch the TVs to MSNBC. I work in a newer building so it has TVs in the cafeterias and every where. I suppose because they are cheap and flat nowdays. How am I supposed to enjoy my meal when a TV has MSNBC on it? I am going to have to get one of those things that will turn off any brand of TV and carry it where ever I go.
If you like HillBuzz and enjoyed a single thing that Kevin wrote remember to put a few bucks in the tip jar on Tuesday for Kevin’s live transcribing efforts.
I see the MSers are still the second biggest donators to the KenyanKlown, only beat by Google. Stopped using msn for email. They were always getting spam and people hacking them and sending out fake messages using the pirated addresses.
Anyone know a good substitute for gmail?
I use Apple’s icloud because I am a fanboy for their equipment, but they are sort of lefties too.
Sigh!
Hey HB friends,
It’s been brutal in NJ this week – no power, downed
trees everywhere, gas rationing. My very nice husband got me MIFI yesterday so I could get back on the internet. It would be great if NJ goes for Romney but there are so many NY transplants in our state – and they tend to bring their politics with them. But who knows, maybe we will surprise you. My map looks the same – except I have NM red and Nevada blue. Our team is going to win big Tuesday.
Cannot wait!!
I’m starting to to think the best person to come in and help the situation in NY and NJ will be President-Elect Romney? With his business contacts and organizational skills, plus clout, he could help people, be a big hero, and secure NJ and NY as red states well before 2016.
The other benefit from Romney getting involved in the Sandy disaster is that he’ll gain insight into coming up with a program that would help states streamline their disaster preparedness, response, relief, rebuilding etc.
Kevin, this is quite a piece of work and it is obvious you’ve been closely observing and thinking hard about so many things. I love your guts in going on the record with a prediction, come what may, while all those fear pornographers peddle their nonsense up till the last minute. Then, those same cowardly creeps will be the first to declare their own retrospective “yes that’s exactly what I expected too!”
One of your funniest gems is: “Expect epic freakouts on MSNBC over this. And then never expect to hear from Nate Silver ever again. He will need to go into hiding like Salman Rushdie.” – I nearly fell off my chair laughing.
I was so thrilled and relieved the day you endorsed Mitt Romney. Because you are a force of nature with an utterly unique and badly needed perspective. In my opinion you’re one of the most important additions to the Right Ranks. Because you know the Left thoroughly and you rejected it using your brain power. You’re like a super-charged operative from behind enemy lines, the kind that can’t be coerced, cajoled or bought. There is a lot of institutional pessimism and defeatism in Right World – some of which is understandable given the constant beating we receive from the cultural zeitgeist. But some of it is also an addiction that needs to stop.
By the way, Romney-Ryan-Priebus et. al. have surprised me these past few weeks with a number of brilliant moves they have sprung on us, in the way of communications and tactics. Things are looking UP!
Kevin:
Re: George Allen, Virginia, and “macaca”. I remember the campaign and incident well. Gee, George Allen didn’t know the official name of an obscure African hairstyle. But it took the Washington Post to hammer that daily for the next two months to destroy Allen. It took a day or two for someone to come forward to say WHY “macaca” was offensive, even if Allen was incorrectly trying to identify a “mandinka” haircut.
Now. . . .this year. The Kaine campaign is amusing. They haven’t just doubled down on the mythical “Republican War on Women”, they’ve squared and cubed it. All Kaine’s ads talk about are abortion rights, access to birth control, etc. Oh, and the Lilly Ledbetter Full-Lawyer Employment Act (grin).
Like Romney/Ryan signs, George Allen signs outnumber Tim Kaine signs at LEAST 10-1.
This should be a walk. . . . for both Mitt and George. . .
Thank all of you so much for your reports and work!! These last four years have been nearly unbearable for me. Barak Obama was always an anathema to me! We are winning this!!
I have a friend who adopted 2 sons in Europe several years ago. I thought I would share his posting on Facebook tonight with you…the sentiments like his, that we have always had; is one of the things the 44th president took away from us……..I’m ready to get it BACK!!
When I was in Ukraine the second trip, having just adopted Josh we returned to Kyiv and went to the U.S. Embassy. We’d been in “a foreign country” for two weeks, with an unpredictable government that would make up the rules as it went along. When I saw Old Glory flying over the embassy, I remember tears coming to my eyes. To me, it stood for all the best in the world — the honorable, the courageous, and the stalwart. For five years after that, every time we’d hear and sing the national anthem, those feelings would come rushing back, and I’d choke to get the words out.
Now, 4 years later, I look up at that same flag and realize that O has made it a laughing stock to the world, spat upon, burned, and torn apart. He’s destroyed everything that America stood for by simply being himself, and that should tell us a lot about what our actions should be in three more days.
I want to once again know, when I’m overseas, that the citizens of the world gaze in awe and wonder at Old Glory, amazed at what God has wrought here — knowing they can depend on us to be the standard for what is good and right in this evil world.
I made a dinner bet over 2 months ago that romney would receive 320 or more. I think it will be closer to 340. My friend hopes that he has to buy me dinner.
Re: North Dakota senate race. I don’t live there now so I don’t have first hand knowledge of why the race is supposed to be close. But I have trouble believing Heitkamp will win. Back in 2000, she ran for statewide office (governor) and lost then, which was well before the Tea Party. Now it’s true that ND has been screwy for a long time and votes R for in-state offices and pres, but D for Congress. It is mostly because of the farm subsidies I think. So Heitkamp could have an advantage in that this time the office she’s running for is one they always awarded to Dems before the tea party.
BUT another big change has happened to ND besides the tea party (which saw them elect an R to Senate and House for the first time in a long time) and that is the oil boom. How can ND even be contemplating voting for a D when the D’s are so anti-oil and beholden to the environmentalists? These workers who have come to ND don’t want to lose their high-paying oil jobs, and a D Senate would surely block all Romney’s efforts at utilizing American fossil fuel sources. And also, most of the new transplants are men, and men vote R more than women. So it just seems insane to me to think Heitkamp could win.
Wow, that’s all I can say, wow.
How did I just now find you? You, dear Kevin, are a breath of fresh air.
Thank you, you have no idea what a blessing you are to my sanity.
xoxo from KC
Kevin, excellent piece. I feel the same as you, have been getting a feeling lately that a “oust 0bama” tidal wave is coming. I hope we are right. Being a political junkie, I have promised my girlfriend, son, family, friends, aquaintances, complete strangers and animals in the neighborhood that I am going to chill out after Tuesdays election, regardless of outcome. “Regardless” I say. Yes, because if Romney wins, I’m going to relax, kickback and watch to see what he does, but, if that sad excuse for a president wins again, I give up. I will be so disappointed in my fellow countrymen, that over half the electorate would have a man like this as their president! I feel the good people of this country, the true patriots, will be at the mercy of this narrcicist idealogue and his minion followers. Lord help us.
Maybe I missed it somewhere, what’s your prediction for Allen West?
Thanks
Kevin,
This reminds me of 1980, watching the results on Tee-Vee. About 2 hours after the first polls closed in the East, it was announced that Reagan won. All the western states still were open and voting- this put a kabosh to further voting there and everything went Reagan.
Something to watch on Tuesday.
That was a nice night, but… it was over very quickly .. savor the moment. The rest of the night were just state totals confirming Reagan won. I’m buying the good stuff tomorrow.
I just checked the SecState (NV) website that keeps a running talley on early voting/absentee results. The dems have a combined (poll/absentee) 3 point advantage as of today at 1pm Pacific time, HOWEVER, the amount of independent vote is 19% for early/14% for absentee. If the independents follow the rest of the polls breaking for R/R by 10+ points, Obama has a real problem. Also, 56% of eligible voters have early voted in NV. Traditionally, the rural counties vote on election day because they have to drive too far for early voting since polling places are not provided to them. The rurals always vote republican so I think Kevin is right, NV will go for R/R.
Another reason I believe R/R will win is that every congressional and the Senate race has republicans are ahead anywhere between 3-8 points. Almost always people in NV vote straight tickets after looking at the results of previous races.
I can only hope that this election will also have an impact on the statewide races so that at least one house of the state legislature can return to republicans.
Can’t wait for Tuesday evening!! I’ll be reading Kevin’s blow-by-blow!
Forgot to add that the dems only have the lead in one county of the state – Clark (Las Vegas). Not good news for them!
I’m glad you mentioned the Hawaii Senate race. I’ve been looking at that one for over two months. Hawaii polls are notoriously inaccurate.
Also Lingle beat her opponent before. She was a popular governor. Her opponent is known for being stiff and difficult to relate to (not a people person). The only thing her opponent has going for her is the D by her name.
But ever time I look at that race my gut feeling says that this is Lingle’s. First of all, Hawaii is considered a “safe” state for Obama so why would many disillusioned democrats show up if they know he’s going to win.
Her opponent is terrible at energizing people. I swear a cardboard box excites crowds better than Lingle’s opponent does. Which means probably few democrats will show up versus the republicans who will.
Enough democrats will probably split their ticket for Lingle to put her over the edge and with her base turning out, I think she’ll get it.
It just won’t leave my mind. Every time I see that race, I get this overwhelming feeling that she’ll get it. Glad it’s not just me feeling it.
Also it is getting very obvious the momentum is on Romney’s side. A crowd of 30,000 plus and people still think he’s not winning Ohio versus Obama who only got 3,000 in the democrat’s number one stronghold: Cleveland.
C’mon. There reason lefties are getting so violent is they’re trying to scare there less enthused base into showing up and the more enthused GOP into not showing up.
Cowardly lefties think everyone is cowardly like them.
What all of this boils down to is that they can’t stand being wrong. That’s why they defend Obama through all of this. They’re egos are fragile and they just can’t stand being wrong. If the world has to burn to sustain their egos, they would gladly let that happen.
But it won’t. We don’t back down and we don’t cave!
Brilliant analysis!
The only thing that is still out there is the “fraud the vote” aspect. I have an alternative view on why the polls and minitru are keeping this race in the dead heat category. And it is that they will use that as cover for the fraud vote. If they have said all along it is a close race, they can fraud the numbers even more hoping no one will notice. I have said to my friends that Romney has to win by at least 5 points to defeat the fraud. Because after awhile too much fraud will not go unoticed. Although you just never know what Eric Holder is going to do.
That being said, if only 200 people showed up for Obama and Stevie Wonder, the fraudsters are really going to have their work cut out for them. It’s going to be pretty hard to commit fraud without the bodies to push the levers.I just don’t think there are enough busses and free pizza to overcome the wave that is coming.
Kevin -
I appreciate your analysis, because you are not just a great observer, but are a very astute political analyst. You also write with passion and conviction which are very hard to find anywhere else.
You are the only one on all the political sites, both conservative and on the left, who has clearly understood that this election is about people, actual people, not some nebulous numbers in polls.
You mentioned the ground reports which have been sent to HillBuzz, and which helped you form your opinion. This is why your analysis has so much more weight that what is being written elsewhere: snapshots they may be, but these snapshot come from those who are actually there, and who have been keeping their eyes open for much longer than just this election.
I am very much looking forward to you live MSNBC comments on 11/6, because there’s only so much live stream I can watch on my laptop, and I’ll have the biased BBC running in one window.
I’ve stocked up on coffee, because it’s the deep end of the night over here when the first results will come in, but going to bed and sleeping through this (as I did in 2008) is not an option this year!
Thanks for all you’ve done, and especially for calling out the fear-porn providers!
As Rhode Islanders, my wife and I will vote for Romney/Ryan this Tuesday. Rhode Island actually went Republican in 1984 and hope springs eternal that we will be one of the nation’s biggest “surprises” come election night. Thank you Kevin for your election predictions; it was a joy to read.
Love your articles and your enthusiasm. It has definitely bolstered my confidence with a Romney win.
I like your analysis of conservative fear porn and think you might be onto something with it. But I also think that some conservative writers and analysts might just skew pessimistic in general because of all the hate directed at our belief system by the media and academic intelligentsia, and the downfall of society due to the lure of leftist decadence. Some of their negativity could also be an attempt to ensure their readers vote by suggesting a close race.
It’s probably not web traffic exclusively.
Hey, gang. I posted this on another one of Kevin’s threads, as well, but I want as many eyes to see it as possible.
HERE’S MY BIG IDEA…
If Kevin’s bold predictions largely come to pass and Romney proves the night’s runaway winner—and all the conservative hand-wringing, yellow journalism and MiniTru subterfuge to which we’ve been subjected proves the manipulative, groundless slop we always suspected—election night would be THE PERFECT TIME TO REWARD Kevin and Hillbuzz for showing such humor, tenacity and truthfulness during this often soul-sucking election cycle.
From subscribing to offering a one-time donation, ANY ONLINE GIFT to Kevin and Hillbuzz immediately following Romney’s big win would be the perfect “thank you”—for telling it like it is when few else did, and doing it with a humor and courage no one else showed.
When Romney’s electoral votes hit the high 200s—or even, if you can imagine, the low 300s—let’s all remember who called it first, and give Kevin a little something extra come election night!
PLEASE “UP VOTE” IF YOU’RE GAME!
Great post, Kevin!
I’m still holding out a little hope for Illinois. In my Chicagoland area I’ve seen seven or eight Romney signs to ONE for O. And we know that the ‘burbs had Romney up double digits a couple of months ago.
For Election night, I’m celebrating with pizza and pink champagne. It’s going to be a euphoric partaaaay!
On vote-splitting: I actually think it’s more common when people are breaking out of their normal party affiliation to support a presidential candidate. For example, I could vote Democrat for President if if Joe Manchin (talk about cute Senators
) were to win the Democratic nomination (impossible, I know, but roll with it for a moment) and the Republican nominee were Lincoln Chaffee (used to be Republican) or Olympia Snowe. However, I’d still vote Republican for everything else. Remember that a lot of the people who will vote for Romney aren’t conservatives–they’ll vote to oust Obama because they perceive him to be a failure. But that won’t necessarily translate to wanting to hand everything over to the Republicans.
I voted in downtown Cleveland yesterday. Although the line was long, it only took about 20 minutes to get inside the building and another 20 minutes once inside the building to get to the vote. I would say there were somewhere between 200 and 250 in line. (Although I am not good at judging crowds). There was a big RV with Romney/Ryan signs circling the block and there was not a peep from anyone. The Obama people were giving away free lunch in front of the church across the street from the Board of Elections. We came out about 12:30 and there could not have been more than 25 people over at the church, most of whom were workers. When you think about downtown Cleveland the weekend before the election and Stevie Wonder is giving a free concert on the next block, it was really lackluster.
The irony of the morning was that as we were driving into Cleveland on I-90, the eastbound lanes of the highway were closed as Obama was on his way to Mentor. When the motorcade passed, I was so angry that he gets to sit his arrogant, incompetent buns in that car. I was married to a Secret Service guy who protected Reagan and I remember feeling so proud of our country everytime I saw Reagan. It is mind-boggling to me that people either can not judge a man’s character anymore or they refuse to think that a man’s character matters.
I saw a post yesterday on Cleveland.com that you will certainly understand….ask a democrat from Euclid who is voting for and he will tell you Obama. These voters, along with union members who are voting for Romney but would NEVER tell anyone, are the ones that are, and will forever remain, uncounted (except in the voting booth).
The left will never understand that the vitriol they have spewed is what is really throwing these polls. No one wants to be called a racist or the nasty names they call us conservatives, so they just go about their business.
I am in the Highland Heights, Mayfield on the east side of Cleveland. I would say the yard signs here are about 40:1 in favor of Romney.
I am planning on going to the IX Center later this morning. I find it interesting that O goes to a gym in Mentor while Romney books the IX Center (capacity: unlimited).
Very grateful for your insights, Kevin. I’m in Massachusetts and can tell you that Scott Brown is a great guy. Yes, he does piss me off with some of his votes and some of his positions but he’s astute enough to understand that he needs to be a centrist in order to survive in this Leftist nitwit land.
I’ll be sticking with your site all through the election (laid up due to recent surgery). Please keep up the great work!
Great article Kevin.
“Virginia = Republican surprise win (I think people have forgiven Allen for the macaca stuff 6 years ago and see no reason to vote split against him in a state Romney will win)”
As a Virginia resident, I agree with this statement, in 2006, I voted for Jim webb, for one reason only, the Macca crap by Allen. I used to subscribe the washington compost back then, and that story was there pretty much every single day leading up to the 2006 midterms.
And I have to admit, I never used to vote for midterms, but that herding by the wash. post convinced me to go and vote for Jim Webb in 06, who the ads said was a moderate dem, he used to be a repub I think. There are NO NO NO moderate dems anymore, I was one, and now I’m an independent, because the undemocratic party are all rabid lefties.
I still cannot stand George Allen, but I cannot stand Tim Kaine even more, the man will be a worshiper for Barry. I don’t trust Tim Kaine, I don’t trust Allen either, except I know 100% George Allen will help overturn ObamaCare, so I will vote for Allen on Tuesday.
Another fact, in 2006 at the height of the lefty lunacy, Allen only lost by about 8K votes. and I have to believe many of who voted for a dem senate candidate then will vote for any repub now.
Keep up the great work, and thank you for all the work you do.
I don’t think my nerves could take watching the news all day, so I’m glad you will be doing it for us, Kevin! Be careful out there! I going to spend the day being an election officer for the first time here in VA. I hope I will come home from that and it will all be settled and I can celebrate with you all, virtually.
WA state is reliably blue because of the Puget Sound area and the Californians that came up here, starting back in the 70s. (That’s how I wound up here after all.) Keep in mind that we have a law in WA state that makes elections a runoff between the top two candidates in a primary, regardless of party affiliation. So we can have two Democratic candidates running for the same office.
I just thought of a factor in both OR and WA that hasn’t been mentioned. We have a lot of Russian/Ukrainians in both states, enough that the State offices have documentation in Russian. They are mostly religious and conservative. I’ve not asked our friends how they are voting, but I can’t see them voting Democratic. They’ve had enough of big government. It could factor into a Romney win.
Just as they have always been Kevin, excellent piece.
Kevin, I have been reading your site for years, and I have to say this is your best and most thorough analysis of any race and state of affairs, ever.
Kevin, Great site. I would like to point out a few things as someone with a phd is advanced statistics, that should help with the fear the MSM is causing. First off – the model Nate Silver uses to predict the election is actually fairly sound and the model itself is quite perdictive. The problem is old adage – gargabe in=garbage out. Any model itself is only as good as the data used – in this case the outcome from the various polls. As you point out the polling process is out of control and they are no longer accurate. Statistically speaking the models favour a democratic responses. No large conspiracy here, just with the new polling techniques (on-line polls, text polls etc), the data set itself becomes skewed to the left. We live in an information age where people want instant reaction and pollsters are cutting corners to provide it – in essence the polling technology has not yet caught up to this twitter world but probably will in the next 4-5 years. For any dems out there – I agree the same can be said for some polls on the right – in particular the Rasmussen poll – but I’m speaking on balance of all the polls (which is what you would need to look at to conclude on the whole process). By accounting for these factors and running a similar analysis as Silver’s model the outcome becomes reversed – Romeny actually has a greater than 70% chance of being elected. Based on my calculations the minimum (absolute floor) to his electoral college votes is 272, meaning he will win the election. The math is sound and even the left can’t argue on that. Silver even has a recent post indicating that his models are only as good as the polls. The ironic twist to all this is that hopefully the public demands more statistically sound polling in the next election and new technology will allow for this. If that happens Silver’s model will be quite predictive, but no one will believe it.
Great post, Jason, thanks.
Thank you for keeping my spirits up and saying what I’m seeing …but not seeing reported elsewhere!
Here in Virginia, I engaged in ‘voter suppression,’ asking my 80 year old Leftie mother to please not vote in the presidential election (I knew I could never convince her to vote Romney), and it took her less than 24 hours to agree. Four years ago, she was a total Obama Zombie; now she’s disillusioned.
My Libertarian sister is voting Romney as an anti-Obamacare vote.
A Catholic conservative colleague who stayed home 4 years ago has the biggest RomneyRyan sign in front of his (sadly!) recently closed business.
We are in deer hunting season now and all the hunters I know are coming off the mountain to vote, vowing to wait in line however long it takes.
Virginia will vote Romney and Allen will ride the coattails.
Thanks for keeping me enthused, informed, and amused in the meantime!
Kevin,
A sound and inspiring piece once again.
Any thoughts on how we can rid the television of fake conservatives like David Brooks? I am sick of either “namby-pambys” who supposedly represent conservative values or the equally phoney single sound-byte ranters. We deserve solid thoughtful persuaders.
A media reckoning is past due.
By the way I was just traveling overseas with a group of Australians and all of them lamented the loss of John Howard as PM. I was living there when the Labor Party defeated his brilliant and solid leadership. There is a shift in Australia taking place that matches ours — watch for that ahead.
My only hope is that somebody records MSNBC all day, and then produces a series of YouTube hightlight videos. Unfortunately for me, I’ll be a work for most of it, and then I don’t have cable.
If this goes down as you’re predicting (and I think everything you’ve said makes a lot of sense), then this will be probably the most epic defeat for the Left in this country EVER. Jimmy Carter’s 1980 defeat was certainly epic, but there wasn’t nearly as much of a sense that the credibility of the MSM itself was on the line. McGovern’s 1972 defeat was epic, but he was the challenger, not the incumbent. Before that, I can think of nothing remotely similar.
I am at the romney rally in pa. Huge crowd waiting to get in. Nice crowd, veryfriendly and excited. Been in line for an hour, another hour till we get in. Line runs out to main road!
I am stunned how similar this article is to my own view of both the biased/evolved media entity dubbed “Ministru” and the cognitive perspective of their actions and the methodology of conservatives. So from a premise and framework standpoint, almost seems like I wrote this article.
Really hoping your projections are correct! The current person in office is IMO a poor leader and makes Carter seem like Bush senior, in comparison. The dems have gone so far left that even the center seems right.- that is real bad.
BTW, I think you missed a “D” for people that will vote for him. Almost any able bodied non-retired person that wants government hand outs and have no desire to work (not referring to retired military, people between jobs due to economy, or others that truly need support).
I like to call the “D” folks a key install base for dem voters. Through poor economic policy, the dems seem to strive in growing this part of their base. On purpose then?