You can create a map like the one above for yourself, by using the tool over at RealClearPolitics.
I think this is how the election is going to shake out, with a Romney win of between 70-100 EVs.
Pennsylvania, the “Zac Efron of states”, has been a perpetual tease for years…always threatening to come out and be who it really is at heart, but then chickening out and doing what its publicist wants it to keep doing. I think if Pennsylvania would ever finally to go Republicans it would be this year…but I still don’t know if the War on Coal in western PA is going to be enough to counteract the lefty voting tendencies in the parts of the state that are included in the Boston to DC “Megalopolis Corridor”. I know that Democrats are going to have to spend money to keep Pennsylvania in Obama’s column and that this (and Michigan) are the new Democrat firewalls…but I’d love to hear more ground reports from people knowledgable in Pennsylvania politics to tell me if Romney really could end up doing what would have been impossible just four years ago: taking the Keystone State.
Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida are now officially lost to Obama. Suffolk has pulled its pollsters from those states because they are no longer “battlegrounds”. I think Ohio’s also going to be solidly in the Romney column in 25 days as well. Don’t believe what the Ministry of Truth (Minitru, for short) is telling you on the tee-vee about Ohio still being “too close to call”. That’s nonsense. I was born and raised in the Buckeye State and the biggest thing you need to know about it is that Ohio votes with who’s going to win the national election. Ohioans want desperately to be right and be the winners in things. The lottery is HUGE in Ohio, folks, and instead of people dreaming of their kids growing up to be doctors or even famous actors or athletes Ohioans dream of their kids winning the lottery some day. In the Cleveland area, where I am from, this is a city-wide obsession. Remember that Ohio is a state plagued by sports teams that rarely make the big games or win the titles…so when Ohioans vote and have a chance to pick the winner for once, they tend to do that. I’m not aware of Ohio siding against the winning presidential candidate in any modern election and it’s not going to do that this time either. If you want more than just instinct on this, take a look at the early voting numbers in Ohio. Democrats are depressed and unenthused about this election because Barack Obama ended up not being the man Minitru convinced many he was four years ago. Ohioans are people who would have probably been handing Hillary Clinton her reelection on a silver platter this year…but they are booting Democrats from office because Obama was just too far to the Left for them in the Oval Office. Ohio is going to Romney and it’s not going to be close.
I think the damage Barack Obama did to Nevada early in his presidency when he ruined their tourism and convention industry will come back to haunt him in November. A few nasty remarks from him back in 2009 directed at people who hold convention in Vegas did massive economic damage to the state. While it’s true that Harry Reid manage to hang onto his Senate seat in 2010, he probably would have lost it if a better candidate had run against him. I don’t think there’s any real love for Reid even in the Ritz-Carlton where he lives, let alone his entire state. I like to follow the casino projects in Vegas because my boyfriend is an architect and I like the fanciful buildings they used to build down there…but there are ZERO big projects planned and many others long-in-development being canceled because of the damage Barack Obama did to the state. I see that tipping things to Romney, although it’s going to probably be close.
I kept New Mexico in Obama’s column because more often than not this state votes Democrat in presidential elections. But, if Pennsylvania really does go to Romney then I bet New Mexico will too and his win will be an absolute landslide at that point. Heck, this would include Michigan as well, most likely.
Democrats would be back to being a coastal party with just Minnesota and Illinois in the middle…and it would be a devastating loss for the Left which Minitru would be forced to admit was due to Americans rejecting socialism with a very loud and clear voice.
THAT is an exciting prospect to think of that you’ll never hear Minitru even consider. Remember, most of the people who work in the media are in their 20s and 30s and they don’t remember a sitting president being booted from office in their adult lifetimes. They operate under the assumption that the incumbent always wins, because they wanted Bush to lose so badly back in 2004 (and he didn’t) that they’ve convinced themselves that incumbents must just have some magic that keeps them in the White House no matter what. No, dummies, Bush won because John Kerry was a lousy candidate to run against him. That’s also why John McCain lost…he was a lousy candidate that few people liked.
I have to say that Mitt Romney has really surprised me. I kind of love this guy at this point. He is doing everything right and not making any mistakes. His responses are RAPID and hit HARD every day, no matter what Minitru attempts to help Obama. Everything Romney did to his opponents in the GOP primaries he is now doing to Obama. I didn’t like Romney for the longest time because I just assumed he would be like John McCain and would never challenge Obama. Boy, was I wrong about him. This guy is brutal and unrelenting and it’s fantastic. He is not playing around and Obama doesn’t know how to combat that. He’s used to white people just giving up and letting him have whatever he wants in life without being challenged…and Romney is challenging him every day.
The Left is in complete, apoplectic, disarray. They are melting down daily. Even the Tokyo Roses in conservative ranks who normally try to demoralize and depress Republicans are being forced to admit that, yes, Romney is winning. Have you looked at the polls? They’re still being rigged to oversample Democrats to ridiculous degrees…but even then Obama is losing. The polls can no longer be rigged enough to show Obama leading.
It is THAT big of a disaster for Democrats.
This is why it’s more important than ever to get the word out that voting for Romney is so critical. We are going to win, but let’s try to make it a crushing epic defeat of Obama and the Left. Let’s try to make this election a polar opposite of 2008 and swing the pendulum so far to the right that formerly “safely Democrat” states now go to Romney the way Obama flipped Virginia, North Carolina, and Indiana last time. Wouldn’t it be epic if we could flip Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Oregon and take those from the Democrats?
I really think Romney/Ryan is going to win Wisconsin, too, by the way. Justin and I have now gone there twice in the election and the energy on the ground is pure excitement to make history by voting a Wisconsinite into the Naval Observatory for the first time. It’s amusing to me that Wisconsin was the state in which Michelle Obama made her infamous “I’m proud of my country for the first time in my adult life” remarks four years ago…since many Americans will be saying how proud they are of Wisconsin for helping boot the Obamas out of the White House on November 6th.
What’s your take on the electoral map?
How big do you think Romney’s win will be?
What are YOU doing in your own way to make it as big a win as possible?
UPDATE: Someone asked me what that absolute worst result for Democrats COULD be. As in, if this is the worst loss even humanly possible for Democrats, what would THAT map look like. This is called a candidate’s “floor”, where it’s the absolute bottom of his support and the lowest number of states he could carry.
I think Obama’s “floor” looks like this:
NOTE: This is a fanciful situation, where everything possible breaks against Obama on election day. This is like the movie version of a dream that’s been animated into a cartoon. It is not real, but sure is fun to look at. Don’t think for a second that this will happen though…but it is the very worst case scenario for Democrats that I can imagine.
There are some states I just don’t see even Obama losing, like Minnesota. I think he could actually lose Illinois if the voter fraud in Cook County is thwarted (and efforts are underway to do that) and if Democrats don’t turn out to vote like they have in the past because there are no street money bribes for voting this time around (as Obama doesn’t have the funds to pay those this year). But for some reason there are a lot of cuckoo birds up in Minnesota and voter fraud seems to be rampant there as well.
What do you think of Obama’s “floor”?
Are there any states I’m missing or I shouldn’t have up there?
© 2012, Kevin DuJan. All rights reserved.
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