Archive for February, 2010
Healthcare Polling and Why It Matters
H/t Chrissy the Hyphenated
Dear HillBuzz,
Humans are tribal creatures. Most of us like to feel we belong, so poll results can influence our opinions. I’ve compiled some tips to help you sort out the good polls from the crappy ones.
Look at who did the poll. Polling companies like Rasmussen and Gallup have reputations to protect, so they’re careful not to do skewed polling. Other groups are more interested in producing fodder for their propaganda and use various techniques to “push” their poll results in a desired direction.
While you should beware of polls done by special interest groups and biased media agencies, you should not ignore a poll simply because it was PAID FOR by a special interest group. One of the best, fairest and most informative abortion polls I ever saw was paid for by Focus on the Family, which definitely has a pro-life agenda. But they hired a reputable polling agency to do the work and, from what I saw, they genuinely wanted meaningful information about where Americans stood on the issues at the time of the poll.
Look at who has been surveyed. Political polls generally poll one of three populations: All Americans (A), Registered Voters (RV), and Likely Voters (LV). Typically, All Americans poll more liberal, Likely Voters poll more conservative and Registered Voters fall in the middle.
Look at how closely the breakdown of Democrats, Republicans and Independents matches the current population. Gallup keeps a running count of how Americans are self-identifying. Good polls will weight their results to reflect the most current numbers. Crappy polls will allow (or promote) skewed findings to get the numbers they want for their headlines.
Look at the “margin of error” number. Smaller is better. A typical margin of error for a good poll is “plus or minus 3” which means that where the survey results showed, say, 47% approval, the likelihood is that the entire population’s approval is somewhere between 44% and 50%. Plus or minus three. Get it? Ignore polls that do not report their MOE. And give little credence to any with large MOE numbers. The worst I ever saw was plus or minus nine. Sheesh! How meaningful could their numbers be with an EIGHTEEN percent range?!
Look at the size of the sample. The larger the number polled, the more reliable the results are. The magic number for national polls is 1,000, which you can see reflected in the margin of error numbers. Bigger survey sample = smaller MOE.
Look at how respondents were contacted. Most polls are done by phone, which means that to some extent the results only represent the opinions of people who have phones. But given the number of people who have phones, this is not a serious limitation and it is one that is difficult and costly for pollsters to overcome. However, polls done at web sites, via mail, or to call lists that were not properly randomized are questionable. But even here, it depends what the purpose of the poll is and what they’re saying about it.
For example, I am on the mailing list for Republican opinion polls, probably because I returned the first one so they figure I’m worth the stamp. Since these polls seek to discern what active Republicans are thinking about current issues, the sampling method is justified. However, if the GOP tried to publish their results as representing Americans in general, they’d be way out of line.
Beware of deceptive WORDING in news reports and ads. For example, advertisers would like you to assume that “Three out of four doctors recommend this product” means “75% of all Medical Doctors in the United States believe this brand is superior to all other brands.” But it could just as easily mean “Three out of four doctors I play golf with said, ‘Sure, that brand’s okay’” or “75% of the doctors we called said they’d give free samples of this brand to their patients.”
The list of polls included on this graph show a bunch (like WaPo/ABC) that I wouldn’t trust. The MSM and Democrats trumpet these skewed polls as “proof” that “a majority of Americans” want the Democrats’ plan, yet even at the very beginning when disapproval was at rock bottom, the most biased poll only garnered an approval rating of 50%.
I marked the first and last of what look to be the two most extreme of the “skewed to show support” polls with GREEN arrows.
February 2009: Favor 50% vs. Oppose 20%
February 2010: Favor 48% vs. Oppose 43%
They show an interesting trend – i.e., the more we learn about the Democrats’ plan, the less we like it. The same message is also displayed in the range and mixing of dots. The Favor (gray) dots have a much smaller range than the Oppose (pink) dots:
Favor: 25% to 52%
Oppose: 20% to 62%
Also, in 2009, the Favor and Oppose dots were spread out and intermixed, but in the last couple of months, the dots have gotten more tightly clustered and less mixed.
And according to this cumulative Gallup graph for the last four months of 2009, the majority of Americans has most often been opposed to the Democrats plan. So if you hear some Dem saying, “Most Americans want this,” call ‘em out on it. Cuz they’re wrong.
Here’s a little homework for you. Check out THE latest poll I could find and see what YOU think it means. (There won’t be a test <g>).
Chrissy
BREAKING: Desiree Rogers finally fired as Social Secretary
"I play dress-up all day" - Desiree Rogers, in her official White House photograph as Social Secretary, describing her job duties and use of taxpayer money.
Desiree Rogers, who used to leave the White House gates propped open with a brick so “anyone who wanted to could crash the White House parties, because that’s funny”, has apparently been fired as Social Secretary, according to Rush Limbaugh.
More to come.
But, if Desiree Rogers wasn’t safe in this White House, and she was someone who Chicago insiders said would NEVER be fired, then we wonder how long Valerie Jarrett and Rahm Emanuel can continue to stink up the place with their poor performance, abrasive agendas, and general lack of competence.
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Update: Here’s Desiree Roger’s official statement on her firing.
We really wonder what finally prompted this, because Rogers was incompetent in her position from Day One. It feels like the decision was made to fire her over her embarrassing fumbling of the India State Dinner, which turned out to be the most ineptly-run and embarrassing state dinner held in generations. India was apparently outraged Rogers thought nothing of protecting their Prime Minister from just about anyone in a sari who’d walk in right off the street. Instead of taking a post checking invitations at the door, Rogers was apparently on the dance floor and hitting the buffet line, having a grand old time. It looks like the White House just waited until the furor died down to fire Rogers, trying to save face by not sacking her right when this happened.
On the other side of the coin, what if Rogers really wasn’t fired, but instead, as she claims, is really leaving the White House to look for opportunities in the corporate world?
Let’s analyze the logic of that for a minute.
Right now, it’s the worst time in generations to be looking for a job, even if you did work at the White House. Why leave a cushy gig where she could play dress-up all day and carry on any way she pleased spending as much taxpayer money as she could in the White House, to go to a corporate gig somewhere? That makes no sense at all…especially if Rogers really and truly believed her good, close, personal friends the Utopias were going to be in the White House through 2013.
If Rogers really believe Dr. Utopia was getting a second term, wouldn’t she have wanted to stay in the White House for all of it? At the end of an administration, people like Rogers start to leave so they can get a good corporate job while their president is still in office, and it still carries great weight on a resume to be part of the administration leaving for a big paycheck. That happened at the end of Clinton’s last term. It happened at the end of Bush’s last term.
Know when it didn’t happen?
In 1994 or 2002.
Because Clinton’s staffers knew their boss was getting a Part Two, and Dubya’s team wanted to be part of his second term.
Either Rogers was canned like the ham that she is, or she knows she’s on a sinking ship and wants out while she can still get a decent corporate job being incompetent and spoiled somewhere on the shareholders’ dime.
Leaving now makes no sense if she did it voluntarily and really believed her good friends were going to live in that building for a full eight years.
More Alice in Wonderland comparisons being made of Obama
We like to think we started the ball rolling on this meme, with the excellent work by Seapea depicting Dr. Utopia as we see him, “The Queen of Farts”, clutching his pork-a-corn, happily strolling through the mess s/he’s made of our country:
The Queen of Hearts in her Golden Age of Hope and Change
But, it looks like other cartoonists are picking up on the Alice motif as the new Tim Burton movie gets closer to release. For some reason, they’re drawing Dr. Utopia as the Mad Hatter, with Harry Reid as the White Rabbit (RAAACIST!) and Nancy Pelosi as the Queen of Hearts. Joe Biden is the Doormouse (when we see him as a giant, ice-cream devouring, caterpillar). Pelosi and Reid are the Tweedles, clearly, not the WR and QoH. And with giant mushrooms looking so phallic in a cartoon like this, we can only imagine Rahm Emanuel rolling around on the ground salivating, as a Wonderland ballerina wishing he was back at Studio 54, where Truman Capote once took him over the moon to his own very personal “Wonderland”.
Why is the White House now lying about who designed Michelle Obama's Wilma Flinstone-meets-Mr. Coffee Inaugural Gown?
Jason Wu and a doll of RuPaul he designed.
Jason Wu and Amanda LePore
This is really weird…and it’s not the first time we’ve seen this in the last month or so.
On EW.com today, in an article about an upcoming episode of Project Runway, the author lies and says Isabel Toledo designed the hideous Wilma Flintstone-meets-Mr. Coffee Inaugural Gown the current First Lady wore (and embarrassed herself in) a year and change ago.
That’s a damn lie.
The gown was designed by Jason Wu, who is a celebrated designer in the drag community, working with RuPaul Charles, Amanda LePore, and other transvestites, transsexuals, and drag performers.
Why is the White House suddenly trying to rewrite history that Isabel Toledo was responsible for that monstrosity? Do they suddenly hate Toledo for something?
Toledo’s designs are hideous and she regularly showcases craftsmanship and sewing skills on the level of a kindergartener. So, technically, she COULD have sewn together thousands of used coffee filters while shouting YABBA DABBA DOOOOOOO! and made the dress Mrs. Utopia wore to her husband’s one and only Inauguration. TECHNICALLY.
But, Toledo didn’t make the dress. Jason Wu did. It’s documented. Repeatedly.
So, why the lying now?
Is someone in the White House trying to distance Mrs. Utopia from the fact that the most suitable designer for an Inaugural gown for her was a man who is used to dressing up men to look like women?
Why the lying?
If anyone else deserves “credit” for that coffee filter ensemble, it’s Hanna Barbera, NOT Isabel Toledo.
Governor Hillary Rodham Clinton
Governor Hillary Clinton?
We would love to see Hillary Diane Rodham Clinton become New York’s first female Governor.
Presidents Van Buren, Cleveland, and both Roosevelts served as Governor of New York before becoming President.
With Paterson not seeking election, the race card is no longer in play in New York this fall…and Clinton would not be damaged politically by entering into the Governor’s race (as it was expected if she did so against Paterson in the primaries, Paterson would scream RAAACISM! against her, or anyone else who ran against him, since this is sadly the very first thing the black community at large does when challenged on anything. Run against a black elected official? You must be a RAAACIST!).
That only leaves the matter of Clinton leaving the State Department to become Governor of New York. Would she do it? Sure seems like a great excuse to leave.
We don’t know much about Andrew Cuomo, but believe Clinton’s New York state operations are strong enough to beat him in the primary.
The New York Governor’s race sure seems like a convenient excuse to leave the failing Utopia administration.
Hillaryland has been buzzing about SOMETHING in the last week, with networks being tested and her supporters revving up and checking to see who is still die-hard for her on the ground (answer: her entire army in winter quarters, coast to coast).
It would also be fun to have a rematch between Clinton and Rick Lazio, who so embarrassed himself in 2000 when running against Clinton for the New York Senate seat. He’s bound to make more of the same mistakes again, and be a terrible candidate for Governor. Clinton should mop the floor with him.
So, we have no idea what she’s thinking or planning, but we hope she’d run. We haven’t been to New York in a while, but would love to be on the ground for her there, campaigning our hearts out to send her to the Governor’s mansion…from which so many of her distinguished predecessors were launched into the White House.
Exit stage left, Governor Paterson
"You didn't give me what I WANTS, and when I WANTS stuff, you better GIMME or my family will come get you! Don't you know who my father was? Don't you know who my mother was? Don't you know who my uncles were? I'm the PRINCESS OF CAMELOT and what I WANTS I get, or you'll GET IT eventually!"
New York Governor David Paterson appears to be a very bad man, if what’s been alleged about him is true, pertaining to the abuse of his powers in ordering the New York state police to harass and intimidate witnesses. The New York state police deserve time under a microscope as well, since they do not exist to serve as the Governor’s own personal praetorians. New York state is a cesspool, giving Illinois a run for its money. Why are the three states with the three largest liberal-controlled cities the absolute most corrupt and incompetent (New York, Illinois, and California)?
BUT, and it’s an Oprah-sized butt, people, no matter what happens to David Paterson in the future, he will always have a special place in history as the man who prevented the Kennedy’s from holding onto their claim to the United States Senate.
Remember, if not for Paterson’s willingness to say “F*** you, Kennedys. F*** you, White House” back at Christmas time in 2008, we’d have Senator Caroline Kennedy staking claim to yet another “Kennedy Seat” in that chamber. Events in Massachusetts would have probably played out the same way, with Scott Brown trouncing Martha Coakley, but we wonder if Patrick Kennedy would have retired from Congress if his cousin was a Senator. It feels like her presence would have emboldened him to fight for re-election, and she could have served as a major fundraising tool for both his re-election campaign and the DNC at large.
David Paterson absolutely destroyed HRH Princess Caroline of Kennedy. To this day, she still often races through her Manhattan palace, screeching at the top of her lungs, chasing after her maid Helga, who’s forced to wear a David Paterson mask. Princess beats “Paterson” with coat hangers, shouting “I’m the Senator! I’m the Senator! You don’t defy the Kennedys EVVVVVVVVVVER!” in full-on Joan Crawford mode.
The neighbors would complain to building management, but they don’t want to be on the receiving end of those coat hangers themselves. And, by now, they’re used to these outbursts. Every day Princess is this upset about SOMETHING. “The sun isn’t as warm as I want it. Helga, put your sun costume on. It’s time to chase you”. ”This bread tastes yucky. Helga, you’re the baker today. Get over here”. “My feet smell. Helga, go dress up like feet and start running”.
Oh, Camelot!
The nation owes David Paterson a great debt for teaching HRH Princess Caroline she can’t always get what she wants, and for showing the Kennedy family that all it took was one person to stand up to them and their entire castle of cards would collapse into ruin.
The Kennedys, DNC, and White House vowed to destroy Paterson for defying “American Royalty”, and it seems they achieved that goal. Paterson announced today he’s not running for election, and many expect he’ll be forced to retire before his term is up.
Sadly, Republicans are barely bothering to run a candidate for Governor, putting the inept Rick Lazlo up instead of someone who can actually win. The Party of Stupid just doesn’t want to win sometimes, even when it’s poised to take not only the Governor’s mansion but two Senate seats in New York if it only got its national act together. Fools.
Whatever happens to Paterson, he will always be a weird sort of hero to us. Chances are, the Democrats would have rallied around him if he had done the Kennedys’ bidding. He would probably not have been primaried. Since the Republicans are barely putting up a candidate for Governor, he would have been elected, despite how bad his polls are.
Denying HRH Princess Caroline what she wanted cost Paterson everything…and we just want to remind you of the sacrifice this man, however bad he is, made so that for the first time in generations the Senate could be free of Kennedys.
Thank you, Governor Paterson. You may fail at 99% of everything else you do in life, but for that one shining moment, you were there when the Republic needed you, and we won’t ever forget that.
Friday Open Thread: February 26, 2010
What’s on your minds this Friday?
