This is it folks. These last two days, and how we choose to use them, will decide the future of our nation. Whether you’re a democrat or republican should mean little when faced against the socialist principles that Obama plans to bring under his regime.
I refuse to believe the skewed numbers the Drive-By Media is spewing out every day. I refuse to believe every poll number except for the only one that counts on Nov. 4th! Obama consistently overperforms in the polls. That is why the Pollsters looked like a bunch of fools when Hillary won New Hampshire. An Obama victory is anything but inevitable if those of us who truly care about our country get out and VOTE! Now let’s get out there and WIN IT! This election is ours for the taking!
I read on post that referenced a post on hillaryclintonforum.com that someone got a call from their cousin that O is pulling out of NC and into VA and PA. I went hillaryclintonforum.com but it looked like a deserted site. What gives?
How Black Candidates Affect Voter Turnout
And Candidate Positioning
By Ebonya Washington
*Ebonya Washington is Assistant Professor of Economics and Political Science (Yale). She received her PhD in economics at MIT in 2003. She specializes in public finance and political economy with research interests in the interplay of race, gender and political representation.
“I find that each black candidate significantly increases black voter turnout—by
2.5 percentage points. The white turnout response, 2.1 percentage points, is nearly as high and statistically indistinguishable from the black result.
Given that blacks and whites comprise 10 and 83 percent, respectively, of the population in the average district, the numerical increase in white voters is seven times that of black voters.”
Jill, thanks for that post. Very, very interesting. I’m in TX, and we’ve seen +25% early voting numbers in the reddest of red areas. If as CNN and AP said, McCain voters are “gloomy” and “not likely to turn out” I’d say TX is proving that wrong. An uncontested state with no controversial state candidates or propositions, showing 2+ hour lines in rural areas. Conservatives and I dare say capitalists are more motivated than ever before.
Hillary won NH by about +6. That is a 19 point error. NOT EVEN IN THE BALL PARK.
Hillary won OH by +10. MSM polls got that wrong too.
MSM said McCain would never win NH. HE did.
MSM said McCain was a long shot to win primaries. HE WON.
There are about 20 solid examples where the POLLS have been WAY off. MSM said there would be no HILLARY cross overs. BUT WE HAVE MILLIONS OF PUMAS. MSM said Obama would pick Hillary. HE DIDN’T. MSM said Obamamerical would ICE the deal. IT did not ICE anything. It bombed. MSM said PA is no problem. Well IT IS A PROBLEM.
McCain will win. And guess what the MSM will be wrong AGAIN.
How come you’re not out on a hot Saturday night date with a hot Bot celebrating the upcoming landslide for Barry? Why are you hanging out at Hillbuzz, my dear?
Love the Barack and Bozo Bug! Bunch of clowns they are.
Ben #8 – Thanks for the link. What a great video. That idiot CNN reporter just doesn’t get it. WE are beyond the race issue. I posted the vid. on my blog.
The media chatter that Obama was gonna deliver a knockout blow was deafening.
All the polls showed that BO was gonna win California (except 1) – Hillary won by 13 pts.
All the polls had him closing and some had him going ahead in Massachusetts – Hillary won by double digits.
All the polls had him surging to within the margin of error in New Jersey – Hillary won by double digits.
Remember Pennsylvania. All the polls had him closing to within the margin of error – Hillary won by 10 points.
And remember to ignore any exit poll results that are leaked – and believe me, if they are favorable to Obama, they WILL be leaked. All through the primaries BHO would always overperform in exit polls by 5-7% I guess it’s that “enthusiasm” to grab the form and fill it out – and the typical Hillary voter had to get back to work.
I read on post that referenced a post on hillaryclintonforum.com that someone got a call from their cousin that O is pulling out of NC and into VA and PA. I went hillaryclintonforum.com but it looked like a deserted site. What gives?
Sounds like the internal polling data that someone leaked from the Obama camp is right. Their internals show that NC is out of reach for them.
Obama beat Mccain 52-42 in Saturday’s Zogby sample.
Actually, he didn’t. That number is a three-day rolling average. These tracking polls are way off this year due to an 80% hang up rate the pollsters are dealing with. In order to get their poll out, they wind up sampling the same people out of a small pool of voters over and over.
I read a story in CNN about Odrama’s aunt. This one paragraph struck me:
“News of Onyango’s legal status, which the AP confirmed through sources, including a federal law enforcement official, provided an unwelcome diversion for the Obama campaign during its final push toward Election Day and stoked suspicions among supporters of a political motive behind the timing of the leak.
Leak? Information about the man’s family is considered a leak? I don’t quite know what to think about it. I just know that they’re in on it together. The MSM does not want America to have a clue who this man is.
Question: Are exit poles on Nov 4th anonymous? By that I mean if people are asked within earshot of other people or not? I’m thinking the ‘fear-factor’ of saying “I voted for McCain/Palin” in a Dem area.
John Major trailed Labor on election day 1992 in the UK. He won by 8 points. Nice try.
You see, we still have these old-fashioned things called votes and they are a private matter, which is why your polls can’t capture what may just happen.
Boston Herald
Should the immigration status of Barack Obama’s aunt, Zeituni Onyango, have any bearing on the presidential race?
58% – Yes
39% – No
3% – Not sure
Total Votes: 2,007
Aunt Zeituini’s illegal status has a DIRECT bearing on the election because Obama has expended much energy projecting himself as a “family man” – even concocting a lie with the media that his WHITE grandmother was dying and THE ONE would RUSH to see his “dying grandmother” in 5 days AFTER rallying and fundraising in several states.
But he couldn’t make it to Boston to assist his aunt living in poverty.
Instead, he took money FROM her! – and most likely told her she “couldn’t talk” until after the election.
Everytime Rebecca posts, i get the image of what happens everytime i do a marathon eating fest at Taco Bell. Both make my butt hurt and the smell is about the same.
Looks bad for “O” when real votes are being tabulated. Colorado is showing a McCain lead as is Florida. Maybe Ozero supporters can take solace that Scott Rassmussen and John Zogby declared them the winner. McCain is gonna win in a rout and last edifice of McGovernism will come crashing down. Bet you that jackass “O” and his witch wife will have their mugs all over TV whining about you the polls showing them a convincing victory. Frau Obama can then go back to being disgusted by her country. Right now the MSM and the Obama campaign are wishcasting themselves an election. Obama’s campaign died with Joe the plumber, it’s been over since then. PUMA’s are real, the Bradley effect is real and people woke up weeks ago to this piece of human oafel and his drunk and addled bunch of deviant supporters. I just love all this delusion by his supporters thinking he has it wrapped up. Like they deluded themselves when Kerry and Gore were shown to be winning in the polls. Figured they learn, but with 600 in illegal campaign cash, that delusion is strong. Gonna be epic November 5th, truly epic watching the meltdown.
I found an interesting article last night. It is titled-VISIONS OF REALITY WITH ELIZABETH JOYCE-PHYSIC PREDICTIONS FOR THE 2008 ELEC TION—I don’t know how many of you believe in psychics but on JANUARY 17TH of this year,this lady predicted that not only would Hillary lose but ANOTHER woman would be put on a ticket as candidate for VP. She also stated that the ticket with the woman for VP would win in a landslide. Said this pres would be a one term pres, and said pres would have to step down because of health issues and VP would be sworn in. Said Americans would be given judgement and insight and would stand up and excercise their vote. Remember, this lady predicted this way back in January before all of the primary mess and no one had even an iota of an idea that Sarah Palin would be put on the ticket. very intersting
I’m one more Hillary Democrat voting Republican for the first time. John Sidney McCain is ready on day one to pick up the 3:00 am call. I can’t wait till Tuesday to get this clown out of my nightmares.
Great work Hillbuzz!!
Show me the last Republican Presidential candidate who was losing in all the tracking polls by 5-9 percent in the final weekend who actually went on to win?
More bad news in the internals for “O” in Florida, Iowa and PA. He is losing support among all demographics except urban youth with doesn’t vote in numbers they need to win. The leads are widening in Colorado for McCain in early voting and the “O” campaign is thinking it’s lost like Ohio, Florida, Mo and NC. The last feign by Obama in Arizona may have backfired like his infomercial and his support is crumbling thus the fevered effort by the MSM to bolster his flagging campaign with a fresh batch of special sauce to rig the polls with. The leaders in the Democratic Party are hopeful for Obama but not convinced and a once assured Liberal hegemony seems to have deteriorated into battle for the status quo. Like where we are at folks, the whole Obama thing is coming down, all of it, the media, the pollsters and yes Obama himself. Wouldn’t be surprised if he and Eva Braun Michelle Obama decide to off themselves bunker style after MSNBC calls the election.
Benjamin Says:
“Leak? Information about the man’s family is considered a leak?”
Very interesting terminology by the MSM. Using that logic, news of Bristol Palin’s pregnancy was also a “leak”. Except….that her mom’s a Republican and must be destroyed.
So a leak is a leak only when it hurts a Dem. Otherwise it’s “journalism.”
NOW I understand.
Back to the polls for the primaries for a second….since these polls were so far off has there been any disecting or fleshing out of why their models were so wrong?? I can’t believe the media is not trying to parallel these polls? Even Fox isn’t talking about why the primary polls were so skewed and why there is a chance that these could be also. Any thoughts on this? Since I wasn’t paying as close attention in the dem primaries I didn’t really catch what was said after the results did not pan out like they were supposed to.
Rebecca said:
“Show me the last Republican Presidential candidate who was losing in all the tracking polls by 5-9 percent in the final weekend who actually went on to win?”
John McCain
And there has NEVER been SO MANY cross-over PUMAS before.
Rebecca said:
“Show me the last Republican Presidential candidate who was losing in all the tracking polls by 5-9 percent in the final weekend who actually went on to win?”
How about John Kerry!?! 6-8 point lead on election day.
I live in GA and my friend’s sister, who also lives in GA, left for Florida on Wednesday to campaign for McPalin and will be there through the election . . . Kristen received an email this morning from her sister, Michelle, that she has forwarded to friends and I am copying and pasting the text below . . .
Everything is going great here in Florida! The energy is amazing and we have hundreds of people going door to door and making phone calls to get McCain/Palin supporters out to the polls. I was at the Polk County Sarah Palin rally yesterday – she is every bit as genuine and determined as she is on tv! With information from RNC insiders our internal poll numbers show us up in some areas that the major national polls do not. MANY moderate Hillary democrats have come into the office here as McCain supporters and are saying that many of their friends and families are dems voting McCain! Volunteers are here from across the country (GA, AL, TX, TN, MD, AK) and come in every shape, size, race and ethnicity. There are still unprecedented numbers of undecided voters out there. I feel confident that if every McCain/Palin supporter goes to the polls and gets all like- minded friends, family and neighbors to polls that we will win this election. Let’s all do our part – keep talking to Obama supporters and undecided voters – you never know what you will say that will give them something to think about. GO TEAM MCCAIN/PALIN!! : )
William Kristol on the Daily Show, predicted a McCain victory. He was a doubting Thomas but now seems to on board with the objective analysis of those here. The PUMA effect seems to be real and in actual voting going on this crossover is happening. While ACORN seems to have had an effect in voter registrations and skewing public polls it isn’t translating into votes on the ground as per quantitative and anecdotal evidence. I like the news coming out today about the voting metrics. As per some information leaked on the Quinn and Rose show, Obama is not only losing in almost all the battlegrounds and maybe looking at 300+ EV victory by McCain and surprise close shave in California, NJ and NY giving shivers to the Democratic party apparatus. In addition in generic voter preference Republicans seems to be closing the gap and are -4 due to the DNC’s radical stance on income redistribution, abortion and it’s demonstrable incompetence on national security issues . In 1994 Republican landslide it was -3.5 and it looks like this year will be a tsunami of Republican turnout, not just false and illegal registrations. Right now McCain looks to take all the battlegrounds, sans NM and picks up PA and NH and one of the northern Midwest states like MI, Wis. or Mn. Obama’s campaign is in chaos and panic right now with Obama frantically jetting from one location to another trying to stop the bleeding. He’s pissed through all his campaign cash and now Joe Biden is shilling for cash on the stump. Most of Obama campaign staff are quietly are now resigned to a wait and see attitude, down from premature electation. Doubt is rampant in their camp right now, we got in their head folks!
earlier this year the greatest thoroughbred ever created by god; a creature that personified perfection, that could not loose, lost the biggest race of his life.
Show me the last Republican Presidential candidate who was losing in all the tracking polls by 5-9 percent in the final weekend who actually went on to win?
Rebecca, show me the last time we elected a socialist.
Show me the last time a Democrat stole the nomination by thuggery in the caucus process and went on to win the election.
Show me the last time the MSM was this in the bag for the Democrat candidate, with tingles running up their collectivist leg?
Show me anything that backs up with hard facts, based on actual (early) voting, that corraborates these wildly optimistic pro-O polls.
We were told that first time voters (assumed to be overwhelmingly pro-O) would come out in huge numbers. Isn’t it running about 13%, the same as in recent elections?
We were told that these first time voters would vote overwhelmingly for the Annointed One. How’s that working out for you so far?
We were told that not only would O not lose any blue states, he would pick up states like NC. Oops. O just pulled out of NC. Now PA, by your own admission, isn’t looking good?
A lot of “firsts” are going to come out of this election.
There are three theories I’ve heard on this poll accuracy point.
One has to do with people simply lying to pollsters or simply not participating (i.e. hanging up on the pollster). Respondents who aren’t truthful in their answers can skew polls in obvious ways. The nonparticipants cause a skewing simply because the sample size from which the pollsters draw their data is narrower. Add in that, at least according to the theory, most of the nonparticipants are McCain voters, and you have the theory about how erroneous samples could skew the polls toward Obama.
The second theory is that the Obama campaign, aided by its willing allies in the media, is causing the pollsters to adopt models that cause an erroneous weighting of the poll results toward Obama. The numbers reported by any poll are not just the raw numbers. All pollsters then “weight” those numbers by things like the relative percentages of registered voters and the expected turnout among the various different demographic groups they identify. It’s a pretty complicated methodology, so my explanation here is simplistic, and each pollster’s methodology is a little different. Still, if you put out a bunch of information that causes a pollster to adjust his or her methodology, you can potentially skew the poll.
In this case, there are at least two information campaigns that might be responsible for skewing these polls. The first is the widely reported huge increase in voter registrations, particularly in battleground states. This has been very widely reported, most obviously in connection with all of the ACORN fake registration stories. Many might ask why its a danger to have the Dallas Cowboys’ offensive line registering in Nevada, or one guy in Ohio registering seventy-three times, or Mickey Mouse registering in Florida. The Cowboys and Mickey won’t really show up to vote, right? The guy of the seventy-three registrations can still only vote once, right? So why is this significant? The answer is that it, at least temporarily (until all of those registrations can be purged) increases the number of democrats registered and could cause the pollsters to weight their polls more towards democrats because of the big disparity in registrations. This is particularly true when the media covers it so extensively.
The second factor is the also widely reported gargantuan strength of the Obama “ground game,” i.e. the get out the vote effort. The media seems to never miss a chance to tell us about this super-formidable force that is going to turn out African-Americans and young people (two groups who aren’t known to vote in large numbers) like never before. Like the inflated voter registrations above, this could cause a pollster to adjust his or her model to factor in greater-than-traditional turnout among demographic groups thought to heavily favor Obama.
The last theory is the supposed “Bradley Effect,” named for the 1982 California gubernatorial election in which Tom Bradley, the popular African-American mayor of Los Angeles, went into that election with a large lead in the polls and surprisingly lost. This is not the only example of this (Wilder barely winning in Virginia after being pretty far ahead in the last polls, Jesse Helms winning against his African-American challenger in a NC senate election when he was down 6-8 points in the last polls, etc.). The thought is that, in the privacy of the voting booth, people change their minds because they can’t ultimately vote for the African-American candidate. This is very simplistic, though. The “effect” might have less to do with people changing their minds and more to do with the other two factors above.
This is all pretty speculative at this point. The problem with this election is that registration and turnout models might be way off just because the dynamics are different in this, the first election with an African-American this close to winning the presidency. There are also hints (you’ve read some on this board, but the candidates seem to be acting like the hints might be right) that the internal polls of the candidates are showing a different, much closer race. Why the same skewing forces I’ve outlined above wouldn’t also apply to the internal pollsters of the campaigns is not clear, other than that those pollsters might be less exposed to the influence of the media’s hyping the issues (and, in Obama’s case, would already know of the skewing forces if they’ve been orchestrating them to begin with).
Personally, I think these polls are probably overestimating Obama’s advantage by 3-5 points, mainly because they might be underestimating the strength of the already tried and true Republican/McCain ground game and the strength of the anti-Obama sentiment in certain areas. More importantly, most commentators I’ve heard, including more than one Democrat, have agreed that the undecided vote will likely break to McCain. Thus, watch the states in which Obama’s last numbers in the polls are less than 49%. Those are the ones McCain has a very realistic chance to win.
Since someone above has referenced Obama’s overpolling tendency in the primaries, look closely at those polls (you can find them at realclearpolitics) versus the actual results. It’s an overstatement that Obama overpolled in every primary, but there were several states in which the polls were significantly off. In many of them, Obama’s final number wasn’t too far off — within 2-3 percent. The real phenomenon is that Clinton’s final number in the polls was way low, meaning the undecededs broke to her on election day. This is why watching Obama’s last number in each of these battleground states is critical. If he’s at 49 or below, it’s very much in play.
This election is very, very close, no matter what you think of the polls. Turnout is everything.
“We were told that first time voters (assumed to be overwhelmingly pro-O) would come out in huge numbers. Isn’t it running about 13%, the same as in recent elections?
We were told that these first time voters would vote overwhelmingly for the Annointed One. How’s that working out for you so far?”
The Hotline tracking poll, which has Obama up 5 pts (down from 7 yesterday), shows that 1/3 of the people have voted early and the margin for those respondents is 51-45 for Obama. I’m not sure how the early voting went in 04.
Show me the last Republican Presidential candidate who was losing in all the tracking polls by 5-9 percent in the final weekend who actually went on to win?
tell me when did the last Democrat?
in 04 Bush, was trailing the exit polls on Election Day
What you were never intended to know
redstate.com ^ | 10/30/2008 | Annonymous
Posted on October 31, 2008 2:31:27 AM CDT by DiogenesLaertius
I’m going to let you in on a few secrets here, and this is not because I enjoy the gossip or the attention directed my way. I’m doing this because I doubt much of you know the true weaknesses of Obama. Another reason for my doing this is that I am lost faith in this campaign, and feel that this choice has been forced on many people in this country. Put simply, you are being manipulated. That was and is our job – to manipulate you (the electorate) and the media (we already had them months ago). Our goal is to create chaos with the other side, not hope. I’ve come to the realization (as the campaign already has) that if this comes to the issues, Barack Obama doesn’t have a chance. His only chance is to foster disorganization, chaos, despair, and a sense of inevitability among the Republicans. It has worked up until now. Joe the Plumber has put the focus on the issues again, and this scares us more than anything. Being in a position to know these things, I will rate what the Obama campaign already knows are their weak links from the most important on down.
1 – Hillary voters. Internal polling suggests that at best, we are taking 70-75% of these voters. Other estimates are as low as 60% in some areas – particularly Ohio and western PA. My biggest problem with this campaign’s strategy was the decision NOT to offer Hillary the VP slot. She was ready and able to take this on, and would have campaigned enthusiastically for it. This selection would have also brought virtually all of her supporters into the fold, and the Obama campaign knew it. Though I have no way of knowing this for certain, and I do admit that I am relying on internal gossip, Senator Obama actually went against the advice of his top advisors. They wanted him to choose her, but the only significant opposition to this within the campaign came from Barack and Michelle Obama. In short, he let personal feelings take precedence over what was the most logical thing to do. Biden, by the way, has been a disaster inside the campaign. Everyone cringes whenever he gives an interview, and he creates so many headaches as the campaign has to stay on their toes in order to disseminate information and spin whatever it was he was trying to say.
2 – Sarah Palin. Don’t believe what the media is telling you about how horrible a choice she was. Again, our internal polling suggest that though she has had a minimal impact on pulling disaffected Hillary Democrats to McCain, she has done wonders in mobilizing the base for McCain. Another thing – we were completely taken by surprise with her pick. In my capacity in the research department, I looked into the backgrounds of Leiberman, Romney, Pawlenty and Ridge, and prepared briefs. I don’t mind bragging that we had pretty good stuff on all of them. With Leiberman, the plan was to paint him as an erratic old-timer who didn’t have a clue as to what he was doing (pretty much a clone of McCain). In Romney, we had him pegged as an evil capitalist who cut jobs. Pawlenty was going to get the “Quayle treatment”, or more precisely: a pretty face, with no valid experience. Tom Ridge was going to be used to provide a direct link from McCain to Bush. As you can see, we were quite enamored of all of them. Then the unexpected happened – Sarah Palin. We had no clue as to how to handle her, and bungled it from the start. Though through our misinformation networks, we have successfully taken some of the shine off. But let there be no doubt. She remains a major obstacle. She has singlehanded solidified “soft” Republican support, mobilized the McCain ground game, and has even had some appeal to independents and Hillary voters. This is what our internal polling confirms.
3 – Obama’s radical connections. Standards operating procedure has been to cry “racism” whenever one of these has been brought up. We even have a detailed strategy ready to go should McCain ever bring Rev. Wright up. Though by themselves they are of minimal worth, taken together, Rev. Wright, Bill Ayers, Father Pfelger, and now, Rashid Khalili, are exactly what the campaign does not need. The more focus on them, the more this election becomes a referendum on Obama. The campaign strategy from the very beginning was to make this election a referendum on Bush. Strategists have been banging their head on how successfully McCain has distanced himself from Bush. This has worked, and right now the tide is in his favor. People are taking a new look at Barack Obama, and our experience when this happens tells us this is not good news at all. When they take a look at him, one or more of these names are bound to be brought up. McCain has wisely not harped on this in recent weeks and let voters decide for themselves. This was a trap we set for him, and he never fully took the bait. Senator Obama openly dared him to bring up Ayers. This was not due to machismo on the part of Obama, but actually due to campaign strategy. Though McCain’s reference to Ayers fell flat in the last debate, people in the Obama campaign were actually disappointed that he didn’t follow through on it more and getting into it. Our focus groups found this out: When McCain brings these connections up, voters are turned off to him. They’d rather take this into consideration themselves, and when this happens, our numbers begin to tank.
4 – The Bradley Effect. Don’t believe these polls for a second. I just went over our numbers and found that we have next to no chance in the following states: Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina, Florida, New Hampshire and Nevada. Ohio leans heavily to McCain, but is too close to call it for him. Virginia, Pennsylvania, Colorado, New Mexico and Iowa are the true “toss up states”. The only two of these the campaign feels “confident” in are Iowa and New Mexico. The reason for such polling discrepancy is the Bradley Effect, and this is a subject of much discussion in the campaign. In general, we tend to take a -10 point percentage in allowing for this, and are not comfortable until the polls give us a spread well over this mark. This is why we are still campaigning in Virginia and Pennsylvania! This is why Ohio is such a desperate hope for us! What truly bothers this campaign is the fact that some pollsters get up to an 80% “refuse to respond” result. You can’t possibly include these into the polls. The truth is, people are afraid to let people know who they are voting for. The vast majority of these respondents are McCain supporters. Obama is the “hip” choice, and we all know it.
As part of my research duties, I scour right wing blogs and websites to get somewhat of a “feel” as to what is being talked about on the other side. Much of it is nonsense, but there are some exceptions which give the campaign jitters. A spirited campaign has been made to infiltrate many pro-Hillary sites and discredit them. A more disorganized, but genuine effort has also been made to sow doubts among the unapologetically right wing sites such as redstate.com. Don’t you guys get it? This has been the Obama campaign’s sole strategy from the very beginning! The only way he wins is over a dispirited, disorganized, and demobilized opposition. This is how it has been for all of his campaigns. What surprises me is that everyone has fallen for it. You may point to the polls as proof of the inevitability of all of this. If so, you have fallen for the oldest trick in the book. How did we skew these polls, you might ask? It all starts with the media “buzz” which has been generated over the campaign. Many stories are generated on the powerful Obama ground game, and how many new voters were registered. None of this happens by coincidence. It is all part of the poll-skewing process. This makes pollsters change their mixes to reflect these new voters and tilt the mix more towards Democratic voters. What is not mentioned or reported on is not the “under-reported cell phone users or young voters” we hear so much about. What is underreported is you.
I changed my somewhat positive opinion of this campaign during the unfair and sexist campaign against Sarah Palin. I will never agree with her on the issues and will probably never vote for her, but I am embarrassed of what has happened. I can’t ignore our own hand in all of this. What I do know is that I will not be voting for Obama this time around. Treat that as you will.
We don’t need to fret over the polls any more because the early voting is very telling. The media is really underplaying what I’m sure they know. According to CNN (http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/31/early.voting/index.html) the early voting has given Obama a 16 point lead heading into election night. What they are not reporting is that is an insurmountable lead.
Normally we see Republicans with a slight lead in early voting and still the last few elections have been close. Everything was already going Obamas way and he really didn’t need to be spotted such a lead but he’ll take it. Also, those numbers have the PUMA effect, small that it is, already factored in—they each pull in close to 90% of their party.
I thought it would be easy but it was not. Not because I was voting for Republican for the first time ever, but because looking at the ballot was like reliving the whole election season again.
As I stood there and looked at the names on the ballot I started to cry, then sob uncontrollably. Luckily I was behind a curtain so no one could see.
I cried for Hillary. I cried for Sarah. I cried for the bullying, the intimidation, for the smears. I cried for the death of the democratic party.
I cried for what should have been.
In the end, I voted for McCain. But I thought the mourning for Hillary’s loss was over, and it was not. All of those emotions resurfaced.
Somehow I felt like it was the last nail in the coffin. As if everything came full circle. Never will I blindly vote Democratic again.
I pray that all of the PUMA’s will follow their consciences and vote for McCain
I’d like to bring up the illegal contributions to Obama again and remind you that he will be beholden to whomever is funding his campaign. If Obama is the puppet of OBL himself, I wouldn’t be surprised. I’m sure you follow my line of thinking here.
oops…didn’t finish my post…hehe..anyway, i just got called by an ACORN worker, and i could barely understand the dude when he introduced himself so i said, “Wait, you work for ACORN?” and he said “yeah…” and so i said “what do you want?” so he continues on and says “I was just calling to determine if you were going to the polls on Tuesday?” so i said “Yes and i’m voting for McCain.” he was quiet for a minute and then he goes on and says “well we just wanted you to know that Tuesday is a very important day and we wanted to know if you will be bringing a friend to vote with you as well?” i thought WTF?? so i said “oh yeah, all my friends are going…” and he told me where my voting booth was (address) which he totally butchered as well and then told me to have a nice day…does that sound weird to any of you??? man if i get to the polls on tuesday and someone has jacked with my registration, i am going to go postal!!!!!!
Aw man, I wish I had pictures of all that! I caught a little bit of Obama on the stump yesterday and he had this familiar strained look on his face. It’s the look he used to get when Hillary was getting ready to clobber him in another big state.
I am now convinced that Obama booted those three newspapers off his plane because he only wants sympathetic media around to watch him implode.
“A couple of days ago I asked my readers to participate in explaining the peculiar fact that Barack Obama was supposedly born in Hawai’i, and three weeks later his mother was a college student in Seattle, Washington and the baby was visiting Mercer Island outside Seattle. I thought maybe I missed some concrete explanation or definite facts. I was amazed.
I received an avalanche of theories, suggestions, and links. But no one could point to any definitive explanation for how Obama was born in Hawai’i and three weeks later his mother was a student in Seattle. No one. There is simply no authoritative explanation or source of information.
For someone who was supposedly a poor, 18 year-old student, Obama’s mother sure did a lot of traveling. What are the chances that his mother had a baby, somewhere, and was gallivanting three weeks later? The person she visited says Ann Dunham could not even change a diaper. That’s also very curious.” http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/nation/politics/chi-0703270151mar27-archive,0,2258217.story. [second video]
Votes are not counted under election day, even when they vote early.
That report is about party affiliation, NOT actual vote. Every moron knows that, so you don’t qualify as a moron.
As a real American, I can attest to you that in many places in this country, particularly in the rural areas (hint: bitter clingers) Democrats far outnumber Republicans – but vote for the GOP in the important elections.
It is obvious that you are some Coastal snob, because you have absolutely no understanding of “flyover country”.
that is completely irrelevant. The fact is, Obama is not on Tuesday’s ballot, but the electors are. It has no effect on the ballot. That would be an issue in January when the electors meet. Let’s deal with it then. No need to waste time on it NOW.
Right now time is of the essence to get the votes in for THIS election and maybe the whole thing will never need to be resolved.
Keith since they aren’t actually COUNTING the early votes CNN has no way of predicting Obama has a 16% unsurmountable lead. Dems always do better than GOP in early voting. This is just CNN spin convincing Americans the election is over and the Messiah has won.
Okay, be honest with me all you Hillary supporters. If Obama had picked Hillary for veep, would you vote for the ticket, given everything you know about Obama today? I admit that I’m a conservative voting for McCain though I really don’t like him much because he’s not conservative at all (even though Obama makes it seem like he is). I’m the type of person who doesn’t want to just vote the party line, but someone who wants to vote for the best choice. So, I really want too know if you would vote for a Obama/Hillary ticket just to get her in office? Personally I think Hillary escaped by the skin of her teeth here, because I don’t think she would stand a chance in any future election being tied to him.
57. Nonliberal said: “How about John Kerry!?! 6-8 point lead on election day.”
Yes, the media did say that. And the media called a Kerry landslide at about 2 pm Eastern Standard Time on election day 2004.
Those of us who are Republicans have seen this media poll game before. They will try it again. Like last night’s polls, they’ll say Obama’s ahead 10 points, 20 points, 50 points, all kinds of ridiculous things. Pictures of the Glorious Leader and cheering people will fill the screen. Many talking heads will try to tell us it’s all over.
But these exit polls are all just polls! They are not actual vote results. No votes have yet been counted. The media and the Obamabots will try to confuse the language of the stories and let people think these are voting results when they are not. They are only polls. These polls are no better than the phone polls. The pollsters preselect the places where they’ll do the exit polls. They don’t talk to everyone, and there are still the problems of preselection, truthfulness, refusal rates, etc. In 2004, they chose places too heavily Democrat. And called the polls for Kerry at 2 pm EST (11 am CA time)! Aren’t the early voting sites this year in more densely populated, i.e. more Democrat-leaning, locations?
When the actual vote counts come in, it’ll be very different. Republicans vote, and they turn out in a big way. For yea, though we walk through the shadow of the Mighty Obama, we shall fear no evil, for Rush is at our side, lol.
Don’t fall for the tricks. They want you to give up and not vote. Don’t do what they want. Broken glass. Get out and vote.
Thank you, PUMA’s! I’ve read a number of the stories on this site, and it’s very moving. I’ll admit I’ve never been a Hillary supporter, but I was shocked at how she was treated by her party in the primaries.
McCain/Palin 08! McCain to sweep 35-37 of 0bama’s 57-59 states. (And seriously, what other candidate besides 0 could forget how many states there are, even in a spontaneous comment? Is that who we want in the White House when the Bat Phone rings at 3 am?)
News keeps getting better this PM with even some Obama pundits doubting his ability to finish. Chrissy Matthews, aka “Shivers Run Down My Leg” toady for the Obama campaign voiced his doubts about Obama finishing strong. He cited the American people having serious doubts about Obama socialists leanings. Welcome back to reality land Chrissy, we’ve missed ya. I walked past an Obama office here in the South Hills of Pittsburgh…ghost town, maybe 5 people milling around outside smoking. Pollster Scotty Rasmussen on Fox has maybe come out of his stupor and now admits things have “tightened”. Wow now there is being Johnny on the Spot chubs. IBD poll most accurate in 2004 shows a 2 point Obama lead with still that pesky overweighting of Democrats. Rumors of infighting and damage control going on in the Obama campaign. Senior Obama staffers are under a gag order on any comments to the media other than the “We are winning big in most states”. I guess that “Fake it till you make it” mantra of Oprah that Obama has adopted don’t work when confronted with reality. That reality is MASSIVE PUMA crossover and what will be an historic Republican turnout.
Dee, the page isn’t there, indeed. But that’s not all. If you search the CNN site for this supposed 16 point lead in early voting, you find that this is actually a Pew Research poll that was reported on Tuesday which found a 16 point advantage among likely voters. It also found a 19 point Obama advantage among people who claim to have already voted. The point is that these are poll numbers, not actual votes, and there’s no way those can be used to say that any lead is insurmountable.
Folks, I am not an insider. I don’t even know anyone remotely connected with the campaigns. But I have worked campaigns before, and this kind of disinformation is just classic. Until the numbers are actually counted, do not, repeat DO NOT believe them.
You seem to not understand that both candidates are pulling in about 90% of their party. That is why the 16% lead is an accurate figure. You argument would have merit if they were not pulling in the same percentage of their party.
I see some you claim the link doesn’t work but it just worked for me so I don’t know what your problem is. Anyway here is the meat of the article from CNN.
“Of 23,298,564 total in-person and mail-in ballots in 25 states, at least 6,057,527 — or 26 percent — were cast by Democrats or Republicans, according to election officials. Of that 6 million, 57.8 percent were Democrats, and 42.2 percent were Republicans”
Yes of course it is only counting votes by party affiliation for those states that report it. I didn’t know you needed that spelled out for you because until the actual election what else did you think it was? As I stated the 16 point lead can be considered accurate because both candidates are pulling in 90% of their party
First, it reports a 16 point democrat vs. republican ballot margin, not Obama vs. McCain votes.
Second, the margin exists only as to 6 million votes. This is only one fourth of the total votes cast and does not count states like Pennsylvania (and I think Missouri, too) that don’t offer early voting. Hardly insurmountable. Hardly.
Look closer. There’s also a reference to the fact that the Obama campaign has specifically emphasized early voting while the McCain campaign hasn’t. Bad strategy for McCain? Maybe. Part of Obama’s strategy to make it appear he’s got an insurmountable lead? Likely.
Don’t believe this stuff, folks. Keep working hard. Keep faith.
Small towns are almost exclusively Democrat, but do not vote party line in the General Election. Being a registered Democrat is like being a Mason, a big fish in a small pond.
One of the big front page stories in 2004 was the counties in North Florida where Democrats out-number Rebublians 3-1 but voted 2-1 for Bush. The Miami Herald reporters got tetanus shots and braced themselves for a trip to “real America” which disgusts them. They counted the votes themselves and declared that they were accurate.
GALLUP: Final Presidential Estimate: Obama 55%, McCain 44%. The final USA Today/Gallup 2008 pre-election poll predicts Barack Obama will be elected the 44th president of the United States, as he holds a 55% to 44% advantage over John McCain in the allocated estimate of the 2008 presidential vote. http://www.gallup.com
Rumors about internal polls is a useless source. Gallup has been tracking party support for months and it shows it has been consistently trending up for them both. It shows Obama currently has a slight edge but statistically tied.
My daughter saw a home made bumper sticker today and I think it says EVERYTHING!
I’ll keep my guns, my freedom, my God, and my money, you can keep the “change”.
Yay! Vote McCain/Palin!!
November 2, 2008 at 12:40 am
This is it folks. These last two days, and how we choose to use them, will decide the future of our nation. Whether you’re a democrat or republican should mean little when faced against the socialist principles that Obama plans to bring under his regime.
I refuse to believe the skewed numbers the Drive-By Media is spewing out every day. I refuse to believe every poll number except for the only one that counts on Nov. 4th! Obama consistently overperforms in the polls. That is why the Pollsters looked like a bunch of fools when Hillary won New Hampshire. An Obama victory is anything but inevitable if those of us who truly care about our country get out and VOTE! Now let’s get out there and WIN IT! This election is ours for the taking!
November 2, 2008 at 12:41 am
I read on post that referenced a post on hillaryclintonforum.com that someone got a call from their cousin that O is pulling out of NC and into VA and PA. I went hillaryclintonforum.com but it looked like a deserted site. What gives?
November 2, 2008 at 12:50 am
Audio now available of Sarah Obama (kenya grandmother) stating Obama was born in Kenya. She witnessed birth
americasright.com
November 2, 2008 at 12:52 am
Check out http://www.americasright.com for some breaking info. You must type in the www. part of the web address to reach the site.
November 2, 2008 at 12:59 am
Told ya so…
Obama beat Mccain 52-42 in Saturday’s Zogby sample.
Zogby just wanted that Drudge headline on Friday, and he got it.
You guys have really got to start listening to me. I called this right on the money.
November 2, 2008 at 1:12 am
How Black Candidates Affect Voter Turnout
And Candidate Positioning
By Ebonya Washington
*Ebonya Washington is Assistant Professor of Economics and Political Science (Yale). She received her PhD in economics at MIT in 2003. She specializes in public finance and political economy with research interests in the interplay of race, gender and political representation.
“I find that each black candidate significantly increases black voter turnout—by
2.5 percentage points. The white turnout response, 2.1 percentage points, is nearly as high and statistically indistinguishable from the black result.
Given that blacks and whites comprise 10 and 83 percent, respectively, of the population in the average district, the numerical increase in white voters is seven times that of black voters.”
http://faculty.chicagogsb.edu/workshops/AppliedEcon/archive/pdf/Washington.pdf
I ran across this in my research and thought it was interesting. Keep up the good work.
November 2, 2008 at 1:13 am
Woohoo! 2 days until BO because just a footnote in the history books!
November 2, 2008 at 1:18 am
CNN Shocked Black Men Not Voting Obama
November 2, 2008 at 1:37 am
Jill, thanks for that post. Very, very interesting. I’m in TX, and we’ve seen +25% early voting numbers in the reddest of red areas. If as CNN and AP said, McCain voters are “gloomy” and “not likely to turn out” I’d say TX is proving that wrong. An uncontested state with no controversial state candidates or propositions, showing 2+ hour lines in rural areas. Conservatives and I dare say capitalists are more motivated than ever before.
November 2, 2008 at 1:52 am
“rebecca Says:
November 2, 2008 at 12:59 am
You guys have really got to start listening to me. ”
No. We don’t.
November 2, 2008 at 1:52 am
The MSM polls had Obama +13 over Hillary in NH.
Hillary won NH by about +6. That is a 19 point error. NOT EVEN IN THE BALL PARK.
Hillary won OH by +10. MSM polls got that wrong too.
MSM said McCain would never win NH. HE did.
MSM said McCain was a long shot to win primaries. HE WON.
There are about 20 solid examples where the POLLS have been WAY off. MSM said there would be no HILLARY cross overs. BUT WE HAVE MILLIONS OF PUMAS. MSM said Obama would pick Hillary. HE DIDN’T. MSM said Obamamerical would ICE the deal. IT did not ICE anything. It bombed. MSM said PA is no problem. Well IT IS A PROBLEM.
McCain will win. And guess what the MSM will be wrong AGAIN.
November 2, 2008 at 1:55 am
A must read from the best essayist in the Aussie blogosphere in the contest between the man of valour and the six billion dollar man. It really is no contest.
November 2, 2008 at 2:08 am
Rebecca,
How come you’re not out on a hot Saturday night date with a hot Bot celebrating the upcoming landslide for Barry? Why are you hanging out at Hillbuzz, my dear?
November 2, 2008 at 2:15 am
Keep up the great posts everyone – except Rebecca :(
November 2, 2008 at 2:15 am
WHAT is going on on PA and Fla??
I need updates!
November 2, 2008 at 2:19 am
Watch Dog,
Fascinating information–thanks! I thought Dr. Washington’s analysis was encouraging, especially since she’s probably a Democrat. :)
November 2, 2008 at 2:24 am
WHAT’s going on in PA and Fla?
I need to know.
Please give me a reason to doubt the polls.
November 2, 2008 at 2:27 am
[...] commenter Ben at HillBuzz [...]
November 2, 2008 at 2:29 am
Love the Barack and Bozo Bug! Bunch of clowns they are.
Ben #8 – Thanks for the link. What a great video. That idiot CNN reporter just doesn’t get it. WE are beyond the race issue. I posted the vid. on my blog.
November 2, 2008 at 2:51 am
To saint:
Thank you. That is a great article.
It summarizes what most of us here have been thinking all along, I believe.
Go McCain/Palin 08
November 2, 2008 at 2:52 am
Patriot Mission nails the problem with polls in this election. Look at this summary of polls
taken prior to the New Hampshire primary, look familiar?
November 2, 2008 at 3:04 am
15, WOW…what a shot.
November 2, 2008 at 3:59 am
Michael Says:
November 2, 2008 at 12:40 am
Remember Super Tuesday.
The media chatter that Obama was gonna deliver a knockout blow was deafening.
All the polls showed that BO was gonna win California (except 1) – Hillary won by 13 pts.
All the polls had him closing and some had him going ahead in Massachusetts – Hillary won by double digits.
All the polls had him surging to within the margin of error in New Jersey – Hillary won by double digits.
Remember Pennsylvania. All the polls had him closing to within the margin of error – Hillary won by 10 points.
And remember to ignore any exit poll results that are leaked – and believe me, if they are favorable to Obama, they WILL be leaked. All through the primaries BHO would always overperform in exit polls by 5-7% I guess it’s that “enthusiasm” to grab the form and fill it out – and the typical Hillary voter had to get back to work.
November 2, 2008 at 4:03 am
# Kitsap Says:
November 2, 2008 at 12:41 am
I read on post that referenced a post on hillaryclintonforum.com that someone got a call from their cousin that O is pulling out of NC and into VA and PA. I went hillaryclintonforum.com but it looked like a deserted site. What gives?
Sounds like the internal polling data that someone leaked from the Obama camp is right. Their internals show that NC is out of reach for them.
The published polls are simply way off this year.
November 2, 2008 at 4:08 am
rebecca Says:
November 2, 2008 at 12:59 am
Told ya so…
Obama beat Mccain 52-42 in Saturday’s Zogby sample.
Actually, he didn’t. That number is a three-day rolling average. These tracking polls are way off this year due to an 80% hang up rate the pollsters are dealing with. In order to get their poll out, they wind up sampling the same people out of a small pool of voters over and over.
November 2, 2008 at 4:14 am
# Brian Says:
November 2, 2008 at 2:15 am
WHAT is going on on PA and Fla??
I need updates!
According to leaked internal info, FL is going to be safely Red. Pennsylvania is a battleground for sure.
November 2, 2008 at 5:02 am
check this out!
http://chicagoagainstobama.wordpress.com/2008/10/29/probable-transcript-of-the-khalidi-tape/#comment-4055
McCain/Palin ‘08
November 2, 2008 at 5:24 am
EXAMPLE OF MSM PROTECTING THE ONE
I read a story in CNN about Odrama’s aunt. This one paragraph struck me:
“News of Onyango’s legal status, which the AP confirmed through sources, including a federal law enforcement official, provided an unwelcome diversion for the Obama campaign during its final push toward Election Day and stoked suspicions among supporters of a political motive behind the timing of the leak.
Leak? Information about the man’s family is considered a leak? I don’t quite know what to think about it. I just know that they’re in on it together. The MSM does not want America to have a clue who this man is.
November 2, 2008 at 5:40 am
We are surrounding them and pounding them. The whole trend has changed and we are going to finalize this very soon.
November 2, 2008 at 5:44 am
i have to confess i think obama is going to lose the state of PA. his numbers are really falling there. this is not good.
November 2, 2008 at 5:51 am
mccain is going to take PA. things looking great there. he is closing gap fast in rural area and PA is largerly rural and NOT LIBERAL.
November 2, 2008 at 5:59 am
Question: Are exit poles on Nov 4th anonymous? By that I mean if people are asked within earshot of other people or not? I’m thinking the ‘fear-factor’ of saying “I voted for McCain/Palin” in a Dem area.
Thank you.
November 2, 2008 at 7:09 am
Rebecca –
John Major trailed Labor on election day 1992 in the UK. He won by 8 points. Nice try.
You see, we still have these old-fashioned things called votes and they are a private matter, which is why your polls can’t capture what may just happen.
November 2, 2008 at 7:24 am
Boston Herald
Should the immigration status of Barack Obama’s aunt, Zeituni Onyango, have any bearing on the presidential race?
58% – Yes
39% – No
3% – Not sure
Total Votes: 2,007
http://www.bostonherald.com/news/politics/2008/view.bg?articleid=1129421
Aunt Zeituini’s illegal status has a DIRECT bearing on the election because Obama has expended much energy projecting himself as a “family man” – even concocting a lie with the media that his WHITE grandmother was dying and THE ONE would RUSH to see his “dying grandmother” in 5 days AFTER rallying and fundraising in several states.
But he couldn’t make it to Boston to assist his aunt living in poverty.
Instead, he took money FROM her! – and most likely told her she “couldn’t talk” until after the election.
November 2, 2008 at 8:00 am
Everytime Rebecca posts, i get the image of what happens everytime i do a marathon eating fest at Taco Bell. Both make my butt hurt and the smell is about the same.
November 2, 2008 at 8:07 am
Looks bad for “O” when real votes are being tabulated. Colorado is showing a McCain lead as is Florida. Maybe Ozero supporters can take solace that Scott Rassmussen and John Zogby declared them the winner. McCain is gonna win in a rout and last edifice of McGovernism will come crashing down. Bet you that jackass “O” and his witch wife will have their mugs all over TV whining about you the polls showing them a convincing victory. Frau Obama can then go back to being disgusted by her country. Right now the MSM and the Obama campaign are wishcasting themselves an election. Obama’s campaign died with Joe the plumber, it’s been over since then. PUMA’s are real, the Bradley effect is real and people woke up weeks ago to this piece of human oafel and his drunk and addled bunch of deviant supporters. I just love all this delusion by his supporters thinking he has it wrapped up. Like they deluded themselves when Kerry and Gore were shown to be winning in the polls. Figured they learn, but with 600 in illegal campaign cash, that delusion is strong. Gonna be epic November 5th, truly epic watching the meltdown.
November 2, 2008 at 8:09 am
I found an interesting article last night. It is titled-VISIONS OF REALITY WITH ELIZABETH JOYCE-PHYSIC PREDICTIONS FOR THE 2008 ELEC TION—I don’t know how many of you believe in psychics but on JANUARY 17TH of this year,this lady predicted that not only would Hillary lose but ANOTHER woman would be put on a ticket as candidate for VP. She also stated that the ticket with the woman for VP would win in a landslide. Said this pres would be a one term pres, and said pres would have to step down because of health issues and VP would be sworn in. Said Americans would be given judgement and insight and would stand up and excercise their vote. Remember, this lady predicted this way back in January before all of the primary mess and no one had even an iota of an idea that Sarah Palin would be put on the ticket. very intersting
November 2, 2008 at 8:22 am
<You guys have really got to start listening to me.
That ‘n a nickel won’t get you jack squat.
Becky, do you troll volunteers for Axy get donuts and coffee? Just curious.
Oh, and you’re really depressing the McC vote! Trust me!! Keep trolling girl! LOL!
Hey Axy, the whole troll thing you guys wargamed up? Um, it’s energizing McC voters. Sorry, pal.
November 2, 2008 at 8:40 am
I’m one more Hillary Democrat voting Republican for the first time. John Sidney McCain is ready on day one to pick up the 3:00 am call. I can’t wait till Tuesday to get this clown out of my nightmares.
Great work Hillbuzz!!
November 2, 2008 at 8:52 am
Show me the last Republican Presidential candidate who was losing in all the tracking polls by 5-9 percent in the final weekend who actually went on to win?
November 2, 2008 at 9:02 am
THIS NEEDS TO GET OUT NOW-
SHOCK Audio Unearthed OBAMA TELLS SAN FRANCISCO HE WILL BANKRUPT THE COAL INDUSTRY
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hdi4onAQBWQ
Please post it! Send it everywhere and blog it-Obama means to bankrupt the coal industry.
November 2, 2008 at 9:16 am
#40, troll.
November 2, 2008 at 9:27 am
Axy,
Didn’t you specifically order all trolls to say “I’m hardcore GOP but…” before every post?
Your Becky troll is leaving that out of her posts. Maybe you should give it the latrine detail down at the HQ.
November 2, 2008 at 9:32 am
Here is a link to realclearpolitics with the polls right before the NH primary and actual results.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_primary-194.html
Zogby had Obama up 13 points.
November 2, 2008 at 9:33 am
More bad news in the internals for “O” in Florida, Iowa and PA. He is losing support among all demographics except urban youth with doesn’t vote in numbers they need to win. The leads are widening in Colorado for McCain in early voting and the “O” campaign is thinking it’s lost like Ohio, Florida, Mo and NC. The last feign by Obama in Arizona may have backfired like his infomercial and his support is crumbling thus the fevered effort by the MSM to bolster his flagging campaign with a fresh batch of special sauce to rig the polls with. The leaders in the Democratic Party are hopeful for Obama but not convinced and a once assured Liberal hegemony seems to have deteriorated into battle for the status quo. Like where we are at folks, the whole Obama thing is coming down, all of it, the media, the pollsters and yes Obama himself. Wouldn’t be surprised if he and Eva Braun Michelle Obama decide to off themselves bunker style after MSNBC calls the election.
November 2, 2008 at 9:50 am
More bad news for Zero…
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2122523/posts
November 2, 2008 at 9:52 am
Benjamin Says:
“Leak? Information about the man’s family is considered a leak?”
Very interesting terminology by the MSM. Using that logic, news of Bristol Palin’s pregnancy was also a “leak”. Except….that her mom’s a Republican and must be destroyed.
So a leak is a leak only when it hurts a Dem. Otherwise it’s “journalism.”
NOW I understand.
November 2, 2008 at 10:00 am
Back to the polls for the primaries for a second….since these polls were so far off has there been any disecting or fleshing out of why their models were so wrong?? I can’t believe the media is not trying to parallel these polls? Even Fox isn’t talking about why the primary polls were so skewed and why there is a chance that these could be also. Any thoughts on this? Since I wasn’t paying as close attention in the dem primaries I didn’t really catch what was said after the results did not pan out like they were supposed to.
November 2, 2008 at 10:18 am
pburgh,
I couldn’t find those articles at FR.
Can you post a specific link showing CO, FL, Ohio, NC and MO?
Thanks
November 2, 2008 at 10:18 am
where is my comment?
November 2, 2008 at 10:20 am
Can you link for polls showing BO down in NC, MO, FL, CO, Ohio as per your 9:33 post?
Thanks.
i went to freerepublic and also mason dixon but didn’t see those stats.
November 2, 2008 at 10:20 am
i went to freerepublic and also mason dixon but didn’t see those stats about NC, MO, CO. OH and FL.
November 2, 2008 at 10:26 am
So Sorry everyone!
:oops:
November 2, 2008 at 10:30 am
Good Morning All…
Question…How much stock do you put in the AOL poll?
Go to AOL and try to vote then select show results without voting to see the map.
Go John n Sarah
November 2, 2008 at 10:44 am
“Can you link for polls showing BO down in NC, MO, FL, CO, Ohio as per your 9:33 post?”
Mason Dixon’s latest polls out this morning and yesterday have…
COLORADO Obama +5
OHIO McCain +2
FLORIDA Obama +2
MISSOURI McCain +3
NORTH CAROLINA McCain +3
If you’re looking for a ray of hope for McCain, it’s that Obama is at 47-48 percent and there is room for McCain to still win.
November 2, 2008 at 10:47 am
Rebecca said:
“Show me the last Republican Presidential candidate who was losing in all the tracking polls by 5-9 percent in the final weekend who actually went on to win?”
John McCain
And there has NEVER been SO MANY cross-over PUMAS before.
November 2, 2008 at 11:23 am
Rebecca said:
“Show me the last Republican Presidential candidate who was losing in all the tracking polls by 5-9 percent in the final weekend who actually went on to win?”
How about John Kerry!?! 6-8 point lead on election day.
November 2, 2008 at 11:36 am
I live in GA and my friend’s sister, who also lives in GA, left for Florida on Wednesday to campaign for McPalin and will be there through the election . . . Kristen received an email this morning from her sister, Michelle, that she has forwarded to friends and I am copying and pasting the text below . . .
Everything is going great here in Florida! The energy is amazing and we have hundreds of people going door to door and making phone calls to get McCain/Palin supporters out to the polls. I was at the Polk County Sarah Palin rally yesterday – she is every bit as genuine and determined as she is on tv! With information from RNC insiders our internal poll numbers show us up in some areas that the major national polls do not. MANY moderate Hillary democrats have come into the office here as McCain supporters and are saying that many of their friends and families are dems voting McCain! Volunteers are here from across the country (GA, AL, TX, TN, MD, AK) and come in every shape, size, race and ethnicity. There are still unprecedented numbers of undecided voters out there. I feel confident that if every McCain/Palin supporter goes to the polls and gets all like- minded friends, family and neighbors to polls that we will win this election. Let’s all do our part – keep talking to Obama supporters and undecided voters – you never know what you will say that will give them something to think about. GO TEAM MCCAIN/PALIN!! : )
November 2, 2008 at 11:39 am
William Kristol on the Daily Show, predicted a McCain victory. He was a doubting Thomas but now seems to on board with the objective analysis of those here. The PUMA effect seems to be real and in actual voting going on this crossover is happening. While ACORN seems to have had an effect in voter registrations and skewing public polls it isn’t translating into votes on the ground as per quantitative and anecdotal evidence. I like the news coming out today about the voting metrics. As per some information leaked on the Quinn and Rose show, Obama is not only losing in almost all the battlegrounds and maybe looking at 300+ EV victory by McCain and surprise close shave in California, NJ and NY giving shivers to the Democratic party apparatus. In addition in generic voter preference Republicans seems to be closing the gap and are -4 due to the DNC’s radical stance on income redistribution, abortion and it’s demonstrable incompetence on national security issues . In 1994 Republican landslide it was -3.5 and it looks like this year will be a tsunami of Republican turnout, not just false and illegal registrations. Right now McCain looks to take all the battlegrounds, sans NM and picks up PA and NH and one of the northern Midwest states like MI, Wis. or Mn. Obama’s campaign is in chaos and panic right now with Obama frantically jetting from one location to another trying to stop the bleeding. He’s pissed through all his campaign cash and now Joe Biden is shilling for cash on the stump. Most of Obama campaign staff are quietly are now resigned to a wait and see attitude, down from premature electation. Doubt is rampant in their camp right now, we got in their head folks!
November 2, 2008 at 12:12 pm
Try 2004….The morning of the election ….composite polls Kerry +8…..NOT SO MUCH !
November 2, 2008 at 12:52 pm
remember big brown
http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/06/09/sports/rac-belmont-stakes.php
earlier this year the greatest thoroughbred ever created by god; a creature that personified perfection, that could not loose, lost the biggest race of his life.
how did that happen?
the inevitable is not inevitable.
November 2, 2008 at 1:56 pm
“Question…How much stock do you put in the AOL poll?
Go to AOL and try to vote then select show results without voting to see the map.”
It looks good, EXCEPT that AOL users:
1. Are real people.
2. Are actually alive.
3. Have computers (and ISPs), which means they probably have homes and addresses of some sort.
Thus the AOL poll is missing out on a very high percentage of Oblahblahblahma’s “voters.”
November 2, 2008 at 2:05 pm
Hey guys go here
http://www.ibdeditorials.com/series13.aspx?src=POLLTOPN
I am so proud of your work. This poll was the closest to accurate in the 2004 election!!!
November 2, 2008 at 2:45 pm
Rebecca said:
Show me the last Republican Presidential candidate who was losing in all the tracking polls by 5-9 percent in the final weekend who actually went on to win?
Rebecca, show me the last time we elected a socialist.
Show me the last time a Democrat stole the nomination by thuggery in the caucus process and went on to win the election.
Show me the last time the MSM was this in the bag for the Democrat candidate, with tingles running up their collectivist leg?
Show me anything that backs up with hard facts, based on actual (early) voting, that corraborates these wildly optimistic pro-O polls.
We were told that first time voters (assumed to be overwhelmingly pro-O) would come out in huge numbers. Isn’t it running about 13%, the same as in recent elections?
We were told that these first time voters would vote overwhelmingly for the Annointed One. How’s that working out for you so far?
We were told that not only would O not lose any blue states, he would pick up states like NC. Oops. O just pulled out of NC. Now PA, by your own admission, isn’t looking good?
A lot of “firsts” are going to come out of this election.
November 2, 2008 at 2:59 pm
McCain surging Zero fading…
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2122632/posts
Most accurate poll in 2004…if you like masterbating yourself over poll results like Obamites like to do.
November 2, 2008 at 3:14 pm
Blackberry,
There are three theories I’ve heard on this poll accuracy point.
One has to do with people simply lying to pollsters or simply not participating (i.e. hanging up on the pollster). Respondents who aren’t truthful in their answers can skew polls in obvious ways. The nonparticipants cause a skewing simply because the sample size from which the pollsters draw their data is narrower. Add in that, at least according to the theory, most of the nonparticipants are McCain voters, and you have the theory about how erroneous samples could skew the polls toward Obama.
The second theory is that the Obama campaign, aided by its willing allies in the media, is causing the pollsters to adopt models that cause an erroneous weighting of the poll results toward Obama. The numbers reported by any poll are not just the raw numbers. All pollsters then “weight” those numbers by things like the relative percentages of registered voters and the expected turnout among the various different demographic groups they identify. It’s a pretty complicated methodology, so my explanation here is simplistic, and each pollster’s methodology is a little different. Still, if you put out a bunch of information that causes a pollster to adjust his or her methodology, you can potentially skew the poll.
In this case, there are at least two information campaigns that might be responsible for skewing these polls. The first is the widely reported huge increase in voter registrations, particularly in battleground states. This has been very widely reported, most obviously in connection with all of the ACORN fake registration stories. Many might ask why its a danger to have the Dallas Cowboys’ offensive line registering in Nevada, or one guy in Ohio registering seventy-three times, or Mickey Mouse registering in Florida. The Cowboys and Mickey won’t really show up to vote, right? The guy of the seventy-three registrations can still only vote once, right? So why is this significant? The answer is that it, at least temporarily (until all of those registrations can be purged) increases the number of democrats registered and could cause the pollsters to weight their polls more towards democrats because of the big disparity in registrations. This is particularly true when the media covers it so extensively.
The second factor is the also widely reported gargantuan strength of the Obama “ground game,” i.e. the get out the vote effort. The media seems to never miss a chance to tell us about this super-formidable force that is going to turn out African-Americans and young people (two groups who aren’t known to vote in large numbers) like never before. Like the inflated voter registrations above, this could cause a pollster to adjust his or her model to factor in greater-than-traditional turnout among demographic groups thought to heavily favor Obama.
The last theory is the supposed “Bradley Effect,” named for the 1982 California gubernatorial election in which Tom Bradley, the popular African-American mayor of Los Angeles, went into that election with a large lead in the polls and surprisingly lost. This is not the only example of this (Wilder barely winning in Virginia after being pretty far ahead in the last polls, Jesse Helms winning against his African-American challenger in a NC senate election when he was down 6-8 points in the last polls, etc.). The thought is that, in the privacy of the voting booth, people change their minds because they can’t ultimately vote for the African-American candidate. This is very simplistic, though. The “effect” might have less to do with people changing their minds and more to do with the other two factors above.
This is all pretty speculative at this point. The problem with this election is that registration and turnout models might be way off just because the dynamics are different in this, the first election with an African-American this close to winning the presidency. There are also hints (you’ve read some on this board, but the candidates seem to be acting like the hints might be right) that the internal polls of the candidates are showing a different, much closer race. Why the same skewing forces I’ve outlined above wouldn’t also apply to the internal pollsters of the campaigns is not clear, other than that those pollsters might be less exposed to the influence of the media’s hyping the issues (and, in Obama’s case, would already know of the skewing forces if they’ve been orchestrating them to begin with).
Personally, I think these polls are probably overestimating Obama’s advantage by 3-5 points, mainly because they might be underestimating the strength of the already tried and true Republican/McCain ground game and the strength of the anti-Obama sentiment in certain areas. More importantly, most commentators I’ve heard, including more than one Democrat, have agreed that the undecided vote will likely break to McCain. Thus, watch the states in which Obama’s last numbers in the polls are less than 49%. Those are the ones McCain has a very realistic chance to win.
Since someone above has referenced Obama’s overpolling tendency in the primaries, look closely at those polls (you can find them at realclearpolitics) versus the actual results. It’s an overstatement that Obama overpolled in every primary, but there were several states in which the polls were significantly off. In many of them, Obama’s final number wasn’t too far off — within 2-3 percent. The real phenomenon is that Clinton’s final number in the polls was way low, meaning the undecededs broke to her on election day. This is why watching Obama’s last number in each of these battleground states is critical. If he’s at 49 or below, it’s very much in play.
This election is very, very close, no matter what you think of the polls. Turnout is everything.
November 2, 2008 at 3:28 pm
“We were told that first time voters (assumed to be overwhelmingly pro-O) would come out in huge numbers. Isn’t it running about 13%, the same as in recent elections?
We were told that these first time voters would vote overwhelmingly for the Annointed One. How’s that working out for you so far?”
The Hotline tracking poll, which has Obama up 5 pts (down from 7 yesterday), shows that 1/3 of the people have voted early and the margin for those respondents is 51-45 for Obama. I’m not sure how the early voting went in 04.
November 2, 2008 at 3:42 pm
Another Democrat Women for McCain topic to consider.
http://www.newsmax.com/insidecover/palin_mccain_obama/2008/10/31/146399.html?s=al&promo_code=6F77-1
November 2, 2008 at 3:59 pm
Is everybody ignoring Electoral Votes? I mean, don’t they have the ability to vote against us? Isn’t it just as important what they are thinking?
November 2, 2008 at 4:05 pm
pburgh01:
You are awesome! Way to keep our spirits soaring these last few days. If I am ever in your area, the first 10 drinks are on me, my friend.
From a very appreciative 22 year veteran and staunch conservative!!!
“Hell hath no fury like a PUMA scorned.”
McCain/Palin ‘08
November 2, 2008 at 4:22 pm
# rebecca Says:
November 2, 2008 at 8:52 am
Show me the last Republican Presidential candidate who was losing in all the tracking polls by 5-9 percent in the final weekend who actually went on to win?
tell me when did the last Democrat?
in 04 Bush, was trailing the exit polls on Election Day
There’s always a first rebecca
November 2, 2008 at 4:41 pm
What you were never intended to know
redstate.com ^ | 10/30/2008 | Annonymous
Posted on October 31, 2008 2:31:27 AM CDT by DiogenesLaertius
I’m going to let you in on a few secrets here, and this is not because I enjoy the gossip or the attention directed my way. I’m doing this because I doubt much of you know the true weaknesses of Obama. Another reason for my doing this is that I am lost faith in this campaign, and feel that this choice has been forced on many people in this country. Put simply, you are being manipulated. That was and is our job – to manipulate you (the electorate) and the media (we already had them months ago). Our goal is to create chaos with the other side, not hope. I’ve come to the realization (as the campaign already has) that if this comes to the issues, Barack Obama doesn’t have a chance. His only chance is to foster disorganization, chaos, despair, and a sense of inevitability among the Republicans. It has worked up until now. Joe the Plumber has put the focus on the issues again, and this scares us more than anything. Being in a position to know these things, I will rate what the Obama campaign already knows are their weak links from the most important on down.
1 – Hillary voters. Internal polling suggests that at best, we are taking 70-75% of these voters. Other estimates are as low as 60% in some areas – particularly Ohio and western PA. My biggest problem with this campaign’s strategy was the decision NOT to offer Hillary the VP slot. She was ready and able to take this on, and would have campaigned enthusiastically for it. This selection would have also brought virtually all of her supporters into the fold, and the Obama campaign knew it. Though I have no way of knowing this for certain, and I do admit that I am relying on internal gossip, Senator Obama actually went against the advice of his top advisors. They wanted him to choose her, but the only significant opposition to this within the campaign came from Barack and Michelle Obama. In short, he let personal feelings take precedence over what was the most logical thing to do. Biden, by the way, has been a disaster inside the campaign. Everyone cringes whenever he gives an interview, and he creates so many headaches as the campaign has to stay on their toes in order to disseminate information and spin whatever it was he was trying to say.
2 – Sarah Palin. Don’t believe what the media is telling you about how horrible a choice she was. Again, our internal polling suggest that though she has had a minimal impact on pulling disaffected Hillary Democrats to McCain, she has done wonders in mobilizing the base for McCain. Another thing – we were completely taken by surprise with her pick. In my capacity in the research department, I looked into the backgrounds of Leiberman, Romney, Pawlenty and Ridge, and prepared briefs. I don’t mind bragging that we had pretty good stuff on all of them. With Leiberman, the plan was to paint him as an erratic old-timer who didn’t have a clue as to what he was doing (pretty much a clone of McCain). In Romney, we had him pegged as an evil capitalist who cut jobs. Pawlenty was going to get the “Quayle treatment”, or more precisely: a pretty face, with no valid experience. Tom Ridge was going to be used to provide a direct link from McCain to Bush. As you can see, we were quite enamored of all of them. Then the unexpected happened – Sarah Palin. We had no clue as to how to handle her, and bungled it from the start. Though through our misinformation networks, we have successfully taken some of the shine off. But let there be no doubt. She remains a major obstacle. She has singlehanded solidified “soft” Republican support, mobilized the McCain ground game, and has even had some appeal to independents and Hillary voters. This is what our internal polling confirms.
3 – Obama’s radical connections. Standards operating procedure has been to cry “racism” whenever one of these has been brought up. We even have a detailed strategy ready to go should McCain ever bring Rev. Wright up. Though by themselves they are of minimal worth, taken together, Rev. Wright, Bill Ayers, Father Pfelger, and now, Rashid Khalili, are exactly what the campaign does not need. The more focus on them, the more this election becomes a referendum on Obama. The campaign strategy from the very beginning was to make this election a referendum on Bush. Strategists have been banging their head on how successfully McCain has distanced himself from Bush. This has worked, and right now the tide is in his favor. People are taking a new look at Barack Obama, and our experience when this happens tells us this is not good news at all. When they take a look at him, one or more of these names are bound to be brought up. McCain has wisely not harped on this in recent weeks and let voters decide for themselves. This was a trap we set for him, and he never fully took the bait. Senator Obama openly dared him to bring up Ayers. This was not due to machismo on the part of Obama, but actually due to campaign strategy. Though McCain’s reference to Ayers fell flat in the last debate, people in the Obama campaign were actually disappointed that he didn’t follow through on it more and getting into it. Our focus groups found this out: When McCain brings these connections up, voters are turned off to him. They’d rather take this into consideration themselves, and when this happens, our numbers begin to tank.
4 – The Bradley Effect. Don’t believe these polls for a second. I just went over our numbers and found that we have next to no chance in the following states: Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina, Florida, New Hampshire and Nevada. Ohio leans heavily to McCain, but is too close to call it for him. Virginia, Pennsylvania, Colorado, New Mexico and Iowa are the true “toss up states”. The only two of these the campaign feels “confident” in are Iowa and New Mexico. The reason for such polling discrepancy is the Bradley Effect, and this is a subject of much discussion in the campaign. In general, we tend to take a -10 point percentage in allowing for this, and are not comfortable until the polls give us a spread well over this mark. This is why we are still campaigning in Virginia and Pennsylvania! This is why Ohio is such a desperate hope for us! What truly bothers this campaign is the fact that some pollsters get up to an 80% “refuse to respond” result. You can’t possibly include these into the polls. The truth is, people are afraid to let people know who they are voting for. The vast majority of these respondents are McCain supporters. Obama is the “hip” choice, and we all know it.
As part of my research duties, I scour right wing blogs and websites to get somewhat of a “feel” as to what is being talked about on the other side. Much of it is nonsense, but there are some exceptions which give the campaign jitters. A spirited campaign has been made to infiltrate many pro-Hillary sites and discredit them. A more disorganized, but genuine effort has also been made to sow doubts among the unapologetically right wing sites such as redstate.com. Don’t you guys get it? This has been the Obama campaign’s sole strategy from the very beginning! The only way he wins is over a dispirited, disorganized, and demobilized opposition. This is how it has been for all of his campaigns. What surprises me is that everyone has fallen for it. You may point to the polls as proof of the inevitability of all of this. If so, you have fallen for the oldest trick in the book. How did we skew these polls, you might ask? It all starts with the media “buzz” which has been generated over the campaign. Many stories are generated on the powerful Obama ground game, and how many new voters were registered. None of this happens by coincidence. It is all part of the poll-skewing process. This makes pollsters change their mixes to reflect these new voters and tilt the mix more towards Democratic voters. What is not mentioned or reported on is not the “under-reported cell phone users or young voters” we hear so much about. What is underreported is you.
I changed my somewhat positive opinion of this campaign during the unfair and sexist campaign against Sarah Palin. I will never agree with her on the issues and will probably never vote for her, but I am embarrassed of what has happened. I can’t ignore our own hand in all of this. What I do know is that I will not be voting for Obama this time around. Treat that as you will.
November 2, 2008 at 4:45 pm
We don’t need to fret over the polls any more because the early voting is very telling. The media is really underplaying what I’m sure they know. According to CNN (http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/31/early.voting/index.html) the early voting has given Obama a 16 point lead heading into election night. What they are not reporting is that is an insurmountable lead.
Normally we see Republicans with a slight lead in early voting and still the last few elections have been close. Everything was already going Obamas way and he really didn’t need to be spotted such a lead but he’ll take it. Also, those numbers have the PUMA effect, small that it is, already factored in—they each pull in close to 90% of their party.
November 2, 2008 at 4:46 pm
I voted for McCain/Palin on Friday.
I thought it would be easy but it was not. Not because I was voting for Republican for the first time ever, but because looking at the ballot was like reliving the whole election season again.
As I stood there and looked at the names on the ballot I started to cry, then sob uncontrollably. Luckily I was behind a curtain so no one could see.
I cried for Hillary. I cried for Sarah. I cried for the bullying, the intimidation, for the smears. I cried for the death of the democratic party.
I cried for what should have been.
In the end, I voted for McCain. But I thought the mourning for Hillary’s loss was over, and it was not. All of those emotions resurfaced.
Somehow I felt like it was the last nail in the coffin. As if everything came full circle. Never will I blindly vote Democratic again.
I pray that all of the PUMA’s will follow their consciences and vote for McCain
November 2, 2008 at 4:53 pm
I’d like to bring up the illegal contributions to Obama again and remind you that he will be beholden to whomever is funding his campaign. If Obama is the puppet of OBL himself, I wouldn’t be surprised. I’m sure you follow my line of thinking here.
November 2, 2008 at 4:53 pm
hey gang- i just got a call from an ACORN WORKER!!!
November 2, 2008 at 4:59 pm
oops…didn’t finish my post…hehe..anyway, i just got called by an ACORN worker, and i could barely understand the dude when he introduced himself so i said, “Wait, you work for ACORN?” and he said “yeah…” and so i said “what do you want?” so he continues on and says “I was just calling to determine if you were going to the polls on Tuesday?” so i said “Yes and i’m voting for McCain.” he was quiet for a minute and then he goes on and says “well we just wanted you to know that Tuesday is a very important day and we wanted to know if you will be bringing a friend to vote with you as well?” i thought WTF?? so i said “oh yeah, all my friends are going…” and he told me where my voting booth was (address) which he totally butchered as well and then told me to have a nice day…does that sound weird to any of you??? man if i get to the polls on tuesday and someone has jacked with my registration, i am going to go postal!!!!!!
November 2, 2008 at 5:40 pm
59 pburgh01 Says:
November 2, 2008 at 11:39 am
Aw man, I wish I had pictures of all that! I caught a little bit of Obama on the stump yesterday and he had this familiar strained look on his face. It’s the look he used to get when Hillary was getting ready to clobber him in another big state.
I am now convinced that Obama booted those three newspapers off his plane because he only wants sympathetic media around to watch him implode.
November 2, 2008 at 5:57 pm
http://www.contrariancommentary.com/community/Home/tabid/36/mid/363/newsid363/307/Default.aspx
Mystery Deepens Over Obama’s Birthplace:
“A couple of days ago I asked my readers to participate in explaining the peculiar fact that Barack Obama was supposedly born in Hawai’i, and three weeks later his mother was a college student in Seattle, Washington and the baby was visiting Mercer Island outside Seattle. I thought maybe I missed some concrete explanation or definite facts. I was amazed.
I received an avalanche of theories, suggestions, and links. But no one could point to any definitive explanation for how Obama was born in Hawai’i and three weeks later his mother was a student in Seattle. No one. There is simply no authoritative explanation or source of information.
For someone who was supposedly a poor, 18 year-old student, Obama’s mother sure did a lot of traveling. What are the chances that his mother had a baby, somewhere, and was gallivanting three weeks later? The person she visited says Ann Dunham could not even change a diaper. That’s also very curious.”
http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/nation/politics/chi-0703270151mar27-archive,0,2258217.story. [second video]
November 2, 2008 at 6:14 pm
Rebecca, you are my stat goddess!
November 2, 2008 at 6:16 pm
Rebecca, you are my stat goddess!
November 2, 2008 at 6:26 pm
I PRAY EVERY DAY FOR McCAIN TO WIN. OUR COUNTRY IS IN GRAVE DANGER. MAKE NO MISTAKE ABOUT, OBAMA WILL DO EVERYTHING POSSIBLE TO DESTROY THIS COUNTRY.
MAKE NO MISTAKE, THIS IS THE MOST IMPORTANT ELECTION IN OUR COUNTRY’S HISTORY.
PLEASE…HELP SAVE AMERICA.
GOD BLESS AMERICA
November 2, 2008 at 6:35 pm
I AM A STRICT CONSERVATIVE.
IF I KNEW THEN, WHAT I KNEW NOW, I WOULD HAVE BUSTED MY BUTT TO SUPPORT HILLARY IN THE PRIMARIES.
I MAY NOT AGREE WITH MANY OF HER POLICIES, BUT
AT LEAST HILLARY WOULD LOVES THIS COUNTRY, OBAMA HATES AMERICA AND ALMOST EVERYONE WHO LIVES HERE.
VOTE McCAIN, PLEASE. SAVE AMERICA
November 2, 2008 at 6:42 pm
Yo Keith!
You have to be an Obama voter to be that stupid.
Votes are not counted under election day, even when they vote early.
That report is about party affiliation, NOT actual vote. Every moron knows that, so you don’t qualify as a moron.
As a real American, I can attest to you that in many places in this country, particularly in the rural areas (hint: bitter clingers) Democrats far outnumber Republicans – but vote for the GOP in the important elections.
It is obvious that you are some Coastal snob, because you have absolutely no understanding of “flyover country”.
November 2, 2008 at 6:45 pm
Psst pacificislander!
that is completely irrelevant. The fact is, Obama is not on Tuesday’s ballot, but the electors are. It has no effect on the ballot. That would be an issue in January when the electors meet. Let’s deal with it then. No need to waste time on it NOW.
Right now time is of the essence to get the votes in for THIS election and maybe the whole thing will never need to be resolved.
November 2, 2008 at 6:49 pm
Keith since they aren’t actually COUNTING the early votes CNN has no way of predicting Obama has a 16% unsurmountable lead. Dems always do better than GOP in early voting. This is just CNN spin convincing Americans the election is over and the Messiah has won.
November 2, 2008 at 6:59 pm
McCain Landslide – PUMA Factor
http://www.marstonchronicles.info/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=94&Itemid=118
November 2, 2008 at 7:36 pm
Okay, be honest with me all you Hillary supporters. If Obama had picked Hillary for veep, would you vote for the ticket, given everything you know about Obama today? I admit that I’m a conservative voting for McCain though I really don’t like him much because he’s not conservative at all (even though Obama makes it seem like he is). I’m the type of person who doesn’t want to just vote the party line, but someone who wants to vote for the best choice. So, I really want too know if you would vote for a Obama/Hillary ticket just to get her in office? Personally I think Hillary escaped by the skin of her teeth here, because I don’t think she would stand a chance in any future election being tied to him.
November 2, 2008 at 7:50 pm
57. Nonliberal said: “How about John Kerry!?! 6-8 point lead on election day.”
Yes, the media did say that. And the media called a Kerry landslide at about 2 pm Eastern Standard Time on election day 2004.
Those of us who are Republicans have seen this media poll game before. They will try it again. Like last night’s polls, they’ll say Obama’s ahead 10 points, 20 points, 50 points, all kinds of ridiculous things. Pictures of the Glorious Leader and cheering people will fill the screen. Many talking heads will try to tell us it’s all over.
But these exit polls are all just polls! They are not actual vote results. No votes have yet been counted. The media and the Obamabots will try to confuse the language of the stories and let people think these are voting results when they are not. They are only polls. These polls are no better than the phone polls. The pollsters preselect the places where they’ll do the exit polls. They don’t talk to everyone, and there are still the problems of preselection, truthfulness, refusal rates, etc. In 2004, they chose places too heavily Democrat. And called the polls for Kerry at 2 pm EST (11 am CA time)! Aren’t the early voting sites this year in more densely populated, i.e. more Democrat-leaning, locations?
When the actual vote counts come in, it’ll be very different. Republicans vote, and they turn out in a big way. For yea, though we walk through the shadow of the Mighty Obama, we shall fear no evil, for Rush is at our side, lol.
Don’t fall for the tricks. They want you to give up and not vote. Don’t do what they want. Broken glass. Get out and vote.
Thank you, PUMA’s! I’ve read a number of the stories on this site, and it’s very moving. I’ll admit I’ve never been a Hillary supporter, but I was shocked at how she was treated by her party in the primaries.
McCain/Palin 08! McCain to sweep 35-37 of 0bama’s 57-59 states. (And seriously, what other candidate besides 0 could forget how many states there are, even in a spontaneous comment? Is that who we want in the White House when the Bat Phone rings at 3 am?)
November 2, 2008 at 7:57 pm
And one more thing – I may be a Republican, and not a Hillary supporter, but I’d take her over 0bama in a heartbeat.
November 2, 2008 at 8:04 pm
I don’t trust any “leaks”- the email from Rick Davis said that we are behind but we can still win if we work hard over the next few days.
That is what we have to do.
November 2, 2008 at 8:07 pm
News keeps getting better this PM with even some Obama pundits doubting his ability to finish. Chrissy Matthews, aka “Shivers Run Down My Leg” toady for the Obama campaign voiced his doubts about Obama finishing strong. He cited the American people having serious doubts about Obama socialists leanings. Welcome back to reality land Chrissy, we’ve missed ya. I walked past an Obama office here in the South Hills of Pittsburgh…ghost town, maybe 5 people milling around outside smoking. Pollster Scotty Rasmussen on Fox has maybe come out of his stupor and now admits things have “tightened”. Wow now there is being Johnny on the Spot chubs. IBD poll most accurate in 2004 shows a 2 point Obama lead with still that pesky overweighting of Democrats. Rumors of infighting and damage control going on in the Obama campaign. Senior Obama staffers are under a gag order on any comments to the media other than the “We are winning big in most states”. I guess that “Fake it till you make it” mantra of Oprah that Obama has adopted don’t work when confronted with reality. That reality is MASSIVE PUMA crossover and what will be an historic Republican turnout.
November 2, 2008 at 8:18 pm
Funny, when you go to the page Keith referenced, it says “PAGE NOT FOUND”. Guess he also doesn’t know that votes aren’t counted until the polls close…
November 2, 2008 at 8:53 pm
Dee, the page isn’t there, indeed. But that’s not all. If you search the CNN site for this supposed 16 point lead in early voting, you find that this is actually a Pew Research poll that was reported on Tuesday which found a 16 point advantage among likely voters. It also found a 19 point Obama advantage among people who claim to have already voted. The point is that these are poll numbers, not actual votes, and there’s no way those can be used to say that any lead is insurmountable.
Folks, I am not an insider. I don’t even know anyone remotely connected with the campaigns. But I have worked campaigns before, and this kind of disinformation is just classic. Until the numbers are actually counted, do not, repeat DO NOT believe them.
Confidence is high. Repeat, confidence is high.
November 2, 2008 at 9:02 pm
XO and krp,
You seem to not understand that both candidates are pulling in about 90% of their party. That is why the 16% lead is an accurate figure. You argument would have merit if they were not pulling in the same percentage of their party.
November 2, 2008 at 9:12 pm
I see some you claim the link doesn’t work but it just worked for me so I don’t know what your problem is. Anyway here is the meat of the article from CNN.
“Of 23,298,564 total in-person and mail-in ballots in 25 states, at least 6,057,527 — or 26 percent — were cast by Democrats or Republicans, according to election officials. Of that 6 million, 57.8 percent were Democrats, and 42.2 percent were Republicans”
Yes of course it is only counting votes by party affiliation for those states that report it. I didn’t know you needed that spelled out for you because until the actual election what else did you think it was? As I stated the 16 point lead can be considered accurate because both candidates are pulling in 90% of their party
November 2, 2008 at 9:32 pm
Obama is not pulling in 90% of Democrats. Internal polls from both camps show in many states he is only pulling in about 80%.
November 2, 2008 at 9:35 pm
Found the article.
Folks, do not fall for the distortions.
First, it reports a 16 point democrat vs. republican ballot margin, not Obama vs. McCain votes.
Second, the margin exists only as to 6 million votes. This is only one fourth of the total votes cast and does not count states like Pennsylvania (and I think Missouri, too) that don’t offer early voting. Hardly insurmountable. Hardly.
Look closer. There’s also a reference to the fact that the Obama campaign has specifically emphasized early voting while the McCain campaign hasn’t. Bad strategy for McCain? Maybe. Part of Obama’s strategy to make it appear he’s got an insurmountable lead? Likely.
Don’t believe this stuff, folks. Keep working hard. Keep faith.
November 2, 2008 at 9:48 pm
pburgh01–
Where are you getting all this internal poll information? How accurate are the #s?
No matter what happens on Tuesday–THANKS to all the Hillary voters for working hard to elect McCain.
Although I am a Republican I would have been fine with Hillary and possibly would have voted for her.
November 2, 2008 at 10:27 pm
Keith is obviously a coastal snob.
Small towns are almost exclusively Democrat, but do not vote party line in the General Election. Being a registered Democrat is like being a Mason, a big fish in a small pond.
One of the big front page stories in 2004 was the counties in North Florida where Democrats out-number Rebublians 3-1 but voted 2-1 for Bush. The Miami Herald reporters got tetanus shots and braced themselves for a trip to “real America” which disgusts them. They counted the votes themselves and declared that they were accurate.
November 2, 2008 at 10:44 pm
GALLUP: Final Presidential Estimate: Obama 55%, McCain 44%. The final USA Today/Gallup 2008 pre-election poll predicts Barack Obama will be elected the 44th president of the United States, as he holds a 55% to 44% advantage over John McCain in the allocated estimate of the 2008 presidential vote. http://www.gallup.com
November 2, 2008 at 10:47 pm
XO,
Rumors about internal polls is a useless source. Gallup has been tracking party support for months and it shows it has been consistently trending up for them both. It shows Obama currently has a slight edge but statistically tied.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/109042/Candidate-Support-Political-Party.aspx
November 2, 2008 at 10:52 pm
This may be a little too optimistic.
http://news.aol.com/political-machine/2008/11/02/some-good-news-for-mccain-in-state-polling/?icid=100214839×1212335999x1200806876#comments
Maybe the drive bys are covering their asses.
November 2, 2008 at 10:53 pm
My daughter saw a home made bumper sticker today and I think it says EVERYTHING!
I’ll keep my guns, my freedom, my God, and my money, you can keep the “change”.
Yay! Vote McCain/Palin!!
November 2, 2008 at 11:00 pm
Pardon me if this has already been posted here”
http://thenewcurrencylad.blogspot.com/2008/11/american-d.html
November 2, 2008 at 11:19 pm
take a break and chill for 4 minutes…
November 2, 2008 at 11:34 pm
Does this look like a guy that is about to lose the most important election in generation?
http://www.nbc.com/Saturday_Night_Live/video/clips/mccain-qvc-open/805381/
http://www.nbc.com/Saturday_Night_Live/video/clips/update-sen-mccain/805401/
Hats off to Lorne Michaels!!!
November 3, 2008 at 2:25 pm
I’ll start calling him Baroke Obama myself.