NBC/Mason Dixon Poll: Pennsylvania BO 47, McCain 43, Undecided 9%, Statistical TIE 10/30/08
NBC is as credible a source as two cats with tin cans tied together with string, sitting on the radiator, eating cheeseburgers.
They’ve consistently thrown polls to Obama throughout the primaries, and overestimated his support against Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania by wide margins.
NBC was one of the polls that had “Dear Leader” winning Pennsylvania by 8 points against Clinton — a favorite poll to cite by Eeyores who wanted to cry into their oatmeal every morning, moaning, “Doomed! Doomed! We’re all DOOOOOOOOOOOOMED!”.
Big babies.
Clinton won Pennsylvania by 10 points.
We believe John McCain will win the state by 5…the first Republican to do so in a generation.
NBC is using an incorrect party ID breakdown that overpolls Democrats; this means the new poll they released showing a statistical tie in Pennsylvania is probably polling 45% Dem, 25% Republican and 30% Independent — when the actual numbers should be 39% Dem, 35% Republican, and 26% Independent.
That means John McCain is probably ahead in Pennsylvania right now — hence Obama’s sudden and bewildered return to a state the media claimed he sewed up ages ago. Hence Gov. Rendell’s sweating bullets. Hence the wonderful development of Rep. Murtha very likely losing his seat (we will never support any politician who speaks ill of the United States Marines. We don’t care who you are: you badmouth boots on the ground and you’re no longer someone we can ever support. God Bless our Marines. We wish the polar opposite on Murtha).
When McCain field offices in the Pittsburgh area are being staffed by DEMOCRATS working nonstop to elect a Republican, well, you better believe Obama’s going to lose the Keystone State.
October 30, 2008 at 9:12 am
Doesn’t look like Fox is airing the Khalidi video this morning that they supposedly have. Too bad.
October 30, 2008 at 9:17 am
Sarah Palin and Bill Clinton were at Penn State University this week. From the Centredailytimes.com website:
“Clinton delivered a 22-minute speech Wednesday afternoon before about 1,500 people — mostly Penn State students — in Rec Hall, where Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin held a rally the night before that drew about 7,000.”
Way to go Sarah!
October 30, 2008 at 9:20 am
Ruh-roh, reality check:
http://www.pollster.com/polls/pa/08-pa-pres-ge-mvo.php
October 30, 2008 at 9:23 am
As a Buckeye I am still fuming about the “fumble hear round the world” last weekend…but here is my new chant
We Are Penn State!
Save the Union please! Then go smack up the SEC in Miami…
October 30, 2008 at 9:23 am
Very uplifting. Even if you take the NBC poll at face value, there are a lot of “undecided” voters out there. Last night Michael Barone (a very knowledgable and completely straightforward commentator) mentioned that the experience with Barak is that he usually hits his polling number but rarely snags many “undecideds.” He also noted that the undercurrent amoungst pollsters is that they expect this pattern to play out during the general election. You can hear this thought process when you listen to pollsters – they frequently state something to the effect of “McCain has to get Obama below the 50% level.” That’s because most of them suspect the undecideds will break for McCain. With the 8% undecideds in this NBC poll that speaks highly for McCain’s prospects.
October 30, 2008 at 9:26 am
Wouldn’t worry bout that “Pollster” site much. It is essentially a twin sibling to the RCP average. Contaminated with “university” polls and outdated info. Damn statistics and all that. Certainly no more valid than a recent poll commissioned by a hostile news agency.
October 30, 2008 at 9:27 am
Well, this poll could make sense since McCain did have a little surge a few days ago. But now it looks like the momentum is lost and Obama is pulling away for good (check Rasmussen and Zogby).
October 30, 2008 at 9:31 am
Yipppppeeeeeeeee!!!!!
October 30, 2008 at 9:34 am
I visit this site every day to regain my sanity. I’m a Republican and doing everything I can to help people see the light but they won’t even listen. They just get mad and say “you are trying to smear him.” His supporters will believe anything!
October 30, 2008 at 9:42 am
This poll would make sense since McCain did have a brief surge in the polls a few days ago. But now the momentum shifted back to Obama if you look at the new Zogby and Rasmussen surveys. And how can mccain possibly win the election when he hasn’t even been able to achieve even a single tie in a single poll for a single day in october?
October 30, 2008 at 9:46 am
Any undecideds out there, here’s something the media just doesn’t want to report. I don’t feel the troops are supporting McCain 3-1 because he will ‘take care of veterans’ but because he believes in them and their ability to take down tyranny and build a sustaining democracy in Iraq while still protecting American soil from further terroists. B. Hussein O. and his cousin Kenya Prime Minister Raila Odinga created tyranny to get elected. B. Hussein O. consulted with Odinga and encouraged the strife to gain political position. Do you actually think Biden is going to be a true VP or puppet with foreign policy knowledge for B. Hussein O. Your choice will be permanent for the next 4 years.
October 30, 2008 at 9:47 am
Have been hitting PA with Dems for McCain from NYC for the past 2 weekends. Going this weekend through Monday to GOTV. It has been an amazing, eye-opening and Eeyore-defeating experience. I have never done anything like this in my life–wonder how many others like me are out there. If you live near a swing state, you CAN make a difference.
October 30, 2008 at 9:48 am
asfried1: I saw Barone talking last night and somehow I missed the part about him not picking up undecideds. That makes me feel better. I guess I was just stuck on the “he does as well as he polls” part.
October 30, 2008 at 10:13 am
Rebecca,
You are a classic definition of a concern troll.
Well, we know McCain is going to win because we remember New Hampshire, Ohio, Texas, and Pennsylvania, New York, California, New Jersey, and MA where the polls said Obama will beat Hillary. Didn’t happen.
Haven’t you been away from DailyKooks for too long? Run along, they miss you there.
October 30, 2008 at 10:15 am
Could someone help me understand these early polling results????? Are these results “presumed” results based upon voter registration of dem to repub? They can’t possibly be counting these votes already? Can they? That’s not legal. This whole election is upside down to me. I still don’t understand how early voting is even legal. The constitution provides for one day……Are these exit polls or actual votes. Please clarify!!!
October 30, 2008 at 10:19 am
FL. must be in jeopardy for BO, too. We’ve been getting daily robo calls from Michelle, Matt Damon, Richardson, and other surrogates. Also, lots of daily calls from local college students and young people. The moment they say they are calling for BO, I tell them we were Clinton supporters and have voted for McCain, have a nice day and then hang up. It feels sooo good!
October 30, 2008 at 10:22 am
rebecca, rebecca, rebecca.
How’s David treating you, these days? I’ll bet he’s not real happy your efforts are going for naught. Especially since they were forced to release the premature eja…er, celebration commercial.
So, McCain hasn’t even tied in a single poll, since the beginning of October, huh? Did you want to reevaluate that? Or was that as silly a question as I think it is?
October 30, 2008 at 10:24 am
asfried1 — I’m interested in why you think that “university polls” are contaminating? Why are they any less legit than other polls? Which polls are worth watching? Note that Pollster let’s you see the component polls, so you don’t have to rely on median they chart. Most recent for PA, non-university, for what it’s worth (though arbitrary):
NBC +4D
CNN +12D
Rasmussen +7D
Insider Advantage +9D
AP +12D
October 30, 2008 at 10:38 am
I guess “rebecca” is the assigned troll from the Borg for HillBuzz.
You can’t win, polling shows,no poll shows you will be assimilated, Hope beats Fear…beep, beep. 95% of all taxpyers will get a tax break.
October 30, 2008 at 10:47 am
12 noon: Turn on Rush and Fox News to figure out what to think today.
12:30. Scan Hillbuzz for trolls. Write post talking about Obamanuts.
1:00. Time for coffee to get mind off of facts presented by trolls.
1:30 Drive through Central PA to see all the McCain signs. Impute what I see on entire country. Go McCain!
2:00 Listen to Palin on ABC talk about her 2012 plans to run, throwing running mate McCain under bus. No matter. Go Palin! We love you!
October 30, 2008 at 10:48 am
“So, McCain hasn’t even tied in a single poll, since the beginning of October, huh? Did you want to reevaluate that? Or was that as silly a question as I think it is?”
Ok, when was the last time McCain and Obama were tied in a national poll? Not within margin of error, but the same number.
And you can call me a troll if you like, but I’m just a realist/pessimist who looks at things with my head and not my heart.
October 30, 2008 at 11:01 am
http://www.americanprowler.com/archives/2008/10/30/mccains-best-argument
October 30, 2008 at 11:09 am
On university polls: There has been a huge increase in the number of polls this year – 3 fold? It’s pretty good business. But polling is a difficult science. And a lot of the new pollsters are university based. So, when reading my post before, translate “university poll” to “inexperienced poll”. I suspect that it will take more than one or two election cycles for the newer pollsters to develop adequate corporate knowledge to be reliable. That said, I am happy to take at face value a poll commissioned by a hostile news agency and extrapolate to victory for McCain :).
October 30, 2008 at 11:16 am
One last poll-related comment before I go out to live my life. The reality is that polls are an inherently flawed modality. From a statistical standpoint, the best sort of study is one that is double-blinded. This means that neither the questioner or the questioned know anything about the nature of the question. For example, in medical studies the questioner would administer the medication without having a clue as to whether it is placebo or not – ideally not even knowing what the medication is for. But in polling, the questioner always knows the question so there is no way to screen out the questioner’s personal feelings and agendas. And even in really good medical studies, the statistics are difficult and the outcomes frequently wrong. So take the polls for what they are worth – a quantification of the general nature of the race as it stands subject to a lot (a really lot) of unknown confounders.
So read them or not. Polls are not predestination.
October 30, 2008 at 11:18 am
[...] Thanks to the wonderful PUMAs at Hillbuzz. [...]
October 30, 2008 at 11:32 am
Democrat,let help McCain defeat Barack Hussein Obama on NOV.4,2008.
MCCAIN/PALIN 08!
HILLARY 12!
October 30, 2008 at 11:40 am
We are Penn State! We are Penn State!
Jeff the Buckeye, I commiserate as a former Ohioan. Pryor maybe needs another year. So you’ve got Penn State against Alabama for the BCS? Could be. I’m thinking more likely against the Big 12. In any case, it will be a all red state finale, if we can turn PA. As long as it’s not blue USC.
I’m talking like a Republican, amazing. This is what Oblahma and his campaign have done to me..
October 30, 2008 at 11:54 am
as someone who deals with data for A LIVING, i can tell you that when refusal rates go above 15% we abandon the study, re-do the approach, etc. if we continue w/ a survey that gets above 15% refusal we get crap data.
so: when i hear that some of the major pollsters are getting refusal rates of 80%!!!!! what else can we conclude, but crap data!
October 30, 2008 at 12:11 pm
“And how can mccain possibly win the election when he hasn’t even been able to achieve even a single tie in a single poll for a single day in october?”
One word: Turnout. I anticipate, based on what I see here on the ground in Pennsylvania, and not on the blogosphere, a massive GOP turnout. Note that no news or polling organization has even contemplated that that might happen. And turnout is everything. Just ask John Kerry.
I’m working the polls on Election Day. If turnout isn’t heavy, then I’ll be nervous. We’ll have to wait and see, but there are a lot of very enthusiastic voters here, and by no means are all of them ObamaBots.
October 30, 2008 at 12:12 pm
I have been polling in NH with the campaign and the refusal rate is 80%, and I don’t blame the citizens for not wanting to reveal their vote.
Remember what happed to Joe the Plumber?
October 30, 2008 at 12:12 pm
I have been polling in NH with the campaign and the refusal rate is 80%, and I don’t blame the citizens for not wanting to reveal their vote.
Remember what happened to Joe the Plumber?
October 30, 2008 at 12:15 pm
This is very heartening!! :) I’m a registered independent who stumbled across your blog and I just wanted to say, bless you all for standing up to your party and putting principles above all else. This is precisely why I won’t register with a particular party, because sometimes there’s just a better person for the job. I don’t feel like I can trust Obama as far as I can throw him (and I have a bad shoulder). Something tells me independents will break for McCain. Keep up the good work guys.
October 30, 2008 at 12:17 pm
#28, Smart & LOGICAL! Thanks.
October 30, 2008 at 12:23 pm
Oh maybe rebecca is really an Obot who’s trying to eff with our heads.
Ignore her! I am feeling good about this election and I can’t wait to tell obots: I told you so!
October 30, 2008 at 12:29 pm
Just stopping by to thank you for working so hard. The polls are wrong and we all know it. They know it too or they wouldn’t be working so hard to convince us otherwise. Just wait for the 4th and keep lying to pollsters.
October 30, 2008 at 12:30 pm
[...] more comedy: From a PUMA blog Pennsylvania tied? NBC/Mason Dixon Poll: Pennsylvania BO 47, McCain 43, Undecided 9%, Statistical [...]
October 30, 2008 at 12:35 pm
“as someone who deals with data for A LIVING, i can tell you that when refusal rates go above 15% we abandon the study, re-do the approach, etc. if we continue w/ a survey that gets above 15% refusal we get crap data.
so: when i hear that some of the major pollsters are getting refusal rates of 80%!!!!! what else can we conclude, but crap data!”
Well, that is OK then. Crap data should do just fine for the crap base of a crap candidate.
October 30, 2008 at 12:41 pm
Hello eyeores and messiah astroturfers. On wednesday of next week the press in going to go into a deep depression because of what they are going to call the “McCAIN DEMOCRATS!”
October 30, 2008 at 12:45 pm
Rush is alking about Hillbuzz–NOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
October 30, 2008 at 1:09 pm
I am a registered Republican and am new to the Hillbuzz website. I ahve been reading about PUMA activity in NV, PA, OH, and FL.
I haven’t seen anything about CO or VA. Are the PUMAs active in these 2 battleground states? I am especially worried about CO.
October 30, 2008 at 1:12 pm
I have checked this site many times over the past few months and I just first want to say “Thank You!!” to all of the PUMAs who have put our country first and have worked, sacrificed, contributed and motivated to help elect McCain/Palin. Your efforts are truly amazing and when McCain and Palin win on Tuesday, it will be due, in large part, to you.
As for the polls in PA – I was born and raised in central PA. I can honestly say that there is no way Obama is up by 12 points. Heck, I would be surprised if he is up at all! If you check the results from the 2004 election, Kerry won PA by less than 145,000 votes. I am sure that between PUMAs, moderate Democrats and others that there are 145,000 votes out there for the Republican ticket that were not there in 2004. (Now, this is not counting for any voter fraud that may be going on.)
As for Iowa, Kerry won by just over 11,000 votes. By the sounds of the posts that I have read here, there are enough pi$$ed Hillary supporters to push that state red this year.
If everyone wants to check other states, I got this info from
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/president/
Again, thank you for all of your efforts. Keep the faith and GO VOTE!!
October 30, 2008 at 1:18 pm
***NEVADA***
Why Actual Votes are so important!!
By the way much thanks to all you Hillary People. While I know we will be hating eachother in 2012; we can share the love today as the friend of our enemy is our enemy.
Let me say one nice thing about your gal before I post, she showed toughness during the race, and while she is also a radical past from the 70’s, I think she would have been far less dangerous to this country as Obama. Lastly I give her credit for going after Reverand Wright, my candidate for some reason thinks that’s off limits.
Anyway let me talk to you about Obama and send you to a link (I helped out with this analysis)
http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/
The point to this posting, is that when you look at actual votes they ARE NOT BREAKING the way the polls are predicting. In fact in a big way! RCP has Nevada going 7 or 8 points for Obama, but how’s that possible when in the most Democratic Counties, with 25% of the vote in its a mear 2 point lead. Yes more democrats than Republicans have voted thus far, but does that mean the Republicans won’t vote or does it mean they have more votes to cast? Based on my analysis (not printed) McCain should win Nevada by about 5 points. A 12 point difference from polling. So ask yourself this? If you take every RCP poll and adjust it by 12 where does McCain stand?
Nevada is not isolated with this analysis, take a look at Florida, where McCain is doing BETTER than BUSH in 2004 with early voting. Yet Florida shows McCain down by an average of 3 points? If McCain’s doing better then I would expect him to win by atleast 5 which is an 8 point swing. And here is more evidence of the disconnect. Check out polling data from IBD-TIPP Jewsih Voters are going 35-40% for McCain thats a 15% increase, and probably an extra point or two for McCain over Bush 2004. And if that’s not enough look at an article just released showing American Jews living in Israel voting 3:1 for McCain.
Here are two states with early voting with some interesting statistics. If that’s not enough, the Obama camp is doing some weird things…
That infomercial was arrogant and nuts! And what is Obama doing in a state where McCain didn’t even bother to campaign in (Primary) AND basically told to go to hell with their ethonal subsidy? Do they see something I don’t in their internal polls?
Do not lose faith. Just Vote. and because your democrats, you should probably vote multiple times…That was a joke.
October 30, 2008 at 1:22 pm
Rebecca, I don’t know if you’re a troll or not but answer the question. All throughout the primaries, polls said O was ahead of Hill and he lost. Why do you think it’s any different with Mac?
October 30, 2008 at 1:22 pm
Oh, such concern about losing that state and this one and another. Go on and lament that your corruption and arrogance may lead to your demise, Dem Party Leaders. You thrust someone unto this country–on Americans, whether Rep or Dem or Indep–you forced us with little choice in candidates, and you kept us uninformed.
We cannot ever let these people take power again. Ever. They will have to be removed from office if Hillary is to win, IMO. What thugs.
It would serve them right! All their work, and they select an unexperienced and shady person. Yes, Hillary, take a good hard laugh now. No one listened to you. They deserve to lose the election.
I wonder how she contains her glee while she’s campaigning for Obama?
October 30, 2008 at 1:28 pm
Typo…the enemy of my friend is my friend…until 2012
October 30, 2008 at 1:40 pm
“And how can mccain possibly win the election when he hasn’t even been able to achieve even a single tie in a single poll for a single day in october?”
Gee Rebecca I give up. Perhaps your deep felt concerns have some merit. Have you told your shrink about your genuine and completely honest fear that McCain cannot POSSIBLY win?
Oh, by the way Rebecca have you ever heard of a thing called “SYSTEMATIC ERROR”. We have plenty of empirical evidence to suggest that ALL of these Polls have skewed the results. The data set is called the PRIMARIES.
October 30, 2008 at 1:58 pm
Geez, all that praise for US Marines, and you couldn’t post one beefcake photo of a Marine on the job? I’m outraged. :-)
October 30, 2008 at 2:38 pm
Larry W Says: “Typo…the enemy of my friend is my friend…until 2012″ that had me LOL! Very good point.
Over the course of the primaries, the work of PUMA and now reading this site I have come to have a new appreciation for Hillary and those Dems who support her. Don’t be too surprised if the favor isn’t returned by some of us Repubs in 2012!! :)
October 30, 2008 at 2:47 pm
I’m worried about the polls too, but I’m not a troll.
I swear I’m not.
I’m merely a very concerned McCain Palin supporter.
Looking at this site every day and reading all your comments does give me hope.
Thanks.
Delle
October 30, 2008 at 3:58 pm
“Rebecca, I don’t know if you’re a troll or not but answer the question. All throughout the primaries, polls said O was ahead of Hill and he lost. Why do you think it’s any different with Mac?”
Well, first of all I’m not a “troll” but I know nobody will believe that, so I’ll address the question. IIRC, it was only in NH that all the polls had Obama winning. Hillary was ahead in at least a few polls in the other states that she carried.
BTW, Gallup has McCain fading, as does IBD/TIPP. Every tracking poll is showing negative movement. Are you trying to tell me IBD is cooking a poll against McCain, a guy they support?
October 30, 2008 at 4:34 pm
Rebecca have you forgotten polls had O ahead in Pennsylvania, OH and even Texas? There were some polls that had him tied in California. He got blown out in all 4. I only know what I see. And frankly, I think there is a HUGE silent majority who are keeping their views to themselves ( esp at work) because they do not want a confrontation and be accused of being racist. But they will vote for Mac. If I were O I wouldn’t be popping that champagne cork just yet.
October 30, 2008 at 5:07 pm
I think there are gonna be a lot of disappointed Dems on Election Day. For some reason I think McCain is gonna pull this out. It won’t be pretty.But like they say in footbal a “W” is a “W.”
October 30, 2008 at 6:07 pm
rebecca,
When a study is done and there is a 15% refusal rate the study is abandoned, and the approach is redone, etc. If you continue with a survey that gets above 15% refusal you get crap data. There is an over 80% refusal rate for the polls. The data is crap. Then again, so is Obama, so it fits.
October 30, 2008 at 6:08 pm
Friendly word of advice for rebecca;
You’re really not doing a very good job here. I’m sorry, but you are without a doubt the lamest concern troll I have ever seen. I mean, really, “The polls moved 2% against McCain OMG it’s all over now!”. Is that the best you can do? Were you sick the day they gave the lecture on trolling?
If you want to be a successful troll, then writing “I’m not an Obama supporter BUT…”, or “that might be good news but OMG here’s some bad news!!” every post just doesn’t cut it I’m afraid.
Sorry.
October 30, 2008 at 6:29 pm
I think if Obama wins then America is clearly supporting socialism and our democracy will never be the same.
October 30, 2008 at 6:56 pm
Sorry if I’m coming to this late, but I’ve been pretty consistent about my opinions regarding the polls.
Fcators to consider:
1) In 2006, the republicans stayed home/voted blue dog as a protest on how the current republicans in congress were behaving. The polling companies are using this data to extrapolate the percentage of d vs. r in the current election.
2) This year, the republican base is fired up for two reasons: they fear Obama and love Palin.
3) The polling companies have overweighted d’s and underweighted r’s in their sample. Every. Single. Time. When they aren’t underweighting r’s, they’re underweighting i’s.
4) PUMAs. Anywhere from 10% to 25% of Hillary’s supporters have said they will pull the lever for McCain. They haven’t gotten over it, sweetie. Growl.
5) The Jewish vote. Typically, it breaks for the d by a rate of of about 80/20 (maybe 75/25 in a good year). This year, there are indications it could go as high as 33%-40% for the r candidate.
6) The Bradley effect. Nowhere near as high as in the past, but maybe 2%-3%.
7) The Palin effect. Call this the Bradley effect in reverse. PPeople say they hate Palin to avoid a fight, but really admire her.
8) Get in their faces. The Obama supporters can be quite vocal, and people will just keep quiet about it. I live in a very blue city (NYC), so I keep my head down, for the most part. Why get involved?
9) How were the questions in the poll worded? There’s a tremendous difference between “Would you vote for a black man for President?” versus “Would you vote for Obama for President?”
10) Joe the plumber. His innocent question raised such a furor that could have been avoided. Instead, honest tradesmen (and women) small business owners, and countless others have watched the Chicago machine come after some poor working stiff (no insult intended). Joe is the kind of voter the democrats used to absolutely OWN. Not this time.
There are other reasons that would skew the polls, such as what time of day they were taken, and the fact that d’s tend to answer more often than r’s. I can make numbers and words do all sorts of fancy things.
In the end, there’s no real way to figure out if the polls were wrong. In fact, during the primaries, Obama consistently outpolled Clinton, but she beat the pants off of him in many key states.
The only poll that counts is the one when we step into the booth and vote on 11/4.
I apologize for the length of this post, and thanks to the people at Hillbuzz for letting me put this up.
One last thing; if the Obama people run someone to try and unseat Hillary for her re-election bid, I honestly might switch from r to d just so I can vote for her. I never thought I’d hear myself say that.
October 30, 2008 at 8:23 pm
“The only poll that counts is the one when we step into the booth and vote on 11/4.”
Ugh, that statement ALWAYS comes from backers of the losing candidate. I heard the same from supporters of Mondale and Dukakis and Dole; all of which never even achieved a single tie in a single poll in all of October.
October 30, 2008 at 9:30 pm
Well Rebecca I’m sure you’re familar with President Kerry right? If you recall he was leading in the polls on Election Day and we know how that one turned out.
October 30, 2008 at 9:33 pm
Rebecca,
I don’t know if you’re trying to make yourself feel better about the political choice you’re making or have made, or if you think your comments are going to somehow demoralize those the frequent this post.
If you’re trying to “come to terms” with your decision… well, I hope this brings you some small joy.
If you think you’re going to change someone’s mind here… well, you need professional help. Cause I don’t see anyone here breaking ranks and voting for a socialistic opportunist Chicago political machine thug with ties to so many folks with questionable character! (And those are his GOOD points! :)
October 30, 2008 at 9:50 pm
Rebecky,
Give it up. You aren’t making a dent and are only making yourself look stupid.
Mondale, Dukakis, and Dole weren’t running against the most American hating socialist candidate that has ever attempted to take over our government. Obviously we are all smarter than you.
Either you are already a welfare recipient (or wannabe), ignorant beyond words, or a socialist America hater.
Go home…
October 30, 2008 at 10:18 pm
I just discovered this site. So you guys are Hillary supporters voting for McCain? Good for you! I just came from working at a Republican campaign office, and met a woman who was a former delegate for Hillary. She was basically kicked out of the Democratic party for stating her opinion about Obama. She was threatened, and even had her place of work called, in an attempt to get her fired.
She’s now campaigning for McCain. This woman was articulate and smart, and she is voting for “character” not speeches.
Glad more Hillary supporters are seeing the light. And by the way, if Hillary had won the nomination, I might have crossed party lines.
Obama is a fake, and I’m glad you PUMAS see it!
October 30, 2008 at 11:31 pm
“Well Rebecca I’m sure you’re familar with President Kerry right? If you recall he was leading in the polls on Election Day and we know how that one turned out.”
See, this is what drives me nuts. KERRY WAS NOT LEADING IN THE POLLS. President Bush was ahead in the vast majority of the polls by 3-4 pts. Kerry was ahead in Fox News/Opinion Dynamics, ARG and AP/Ipsos, iirc.
I hate spinning of any partisan nature, and it’s just flat out lying to say Kerry was leading in the polls.
Obama is leading in every single poll. Every single one. They can’t all be wrong, imo. The only disagreement is over how big the margin of victory will be.
October 30, 2008 at 11:36 pm
“Mondale, Dukakis, and Dole weren’t running against the most American hating socialist candidate that has ever attempted to take over our government. Obviously we are all smarter than you.”
They all have something in common with John McCain, though…they all trailed badly in all the October polls and they all lost on election day.
Some people will be eating a lot of crow on election day.
OK, how about this? I will bet any and all comers 100.00 for your favorite charity that the polls are correct and Obama wins. I win and you donate 100.00 to the charity of my choice. If so many of you are really that confident of victory and this place just isn’t for building up morale, then put your money where your keyboard is.
October 30, 2008 at 11:49 pm
rebecca,
drop it will ya? It has been explained so many times, I think you are just too thick to understand. Polls are based on a bunch of assumptions (they assume oh they’ll be more dems this year than past years because they assume first time voters will break for dems and they assume vast majority of Hillary supporters will come home). We have enough reasons to believe that these assumptions are flat out WRONG. FALSE. SO THEY OVERSAMPLE DEMS, UNDERSAMPLE REPS AND/OR INDIES. Ged it?
Now go away…. bring your cloud with you.
October 31, 2008 at 12:52 am
I supported–defended–Hillary on conservative sites as I’m an Indy con and she had seemingly moved to the Sam Nunn sector of the Party, except on illegal immigration and health care. I put my total disagreement with Hillary on those two very crucial issues aside…because I saw what was coming–a Socialist, a dangerous man with the far left backing him. When Hillary dropped out, I threw my blogging support behind McCain even though he was the last Republican I would have supported in the primaries. His choice of Gov. Palin drew me in.
Win or lose, I want to thank you PUMAs at hillbuzz and elsewhere. I truly believe that you alone (given your numbers, supposedly 20% or more of Hillary’s loyalists) can turn this election for McCain-Palin. God bless you all!
October 31, 2008 at 5:52 pm
Glad more Hillary supporters are seeing the light. And by the way, if Hillary had won the nomination, I might have crossed party lines.
Me too!
October 31, 2008 at 10:19 pm
A few days ago I linked to this site from Ace (I think) and only had time to read the Sarah P. post. So tonight I scrolled down and read the concern troll post. “Hmmm” I thought – sounds familiar. I spotted Rebecca right away and have to admit that I’ve seen concern trolls at my usual conservative sites. So now I know. I’ll be on the lookout for more trolls and won’t let my spirit get down.
This troll stuff made me LOL. Great site – I’ll be visiting often.
January 11, 2009 at 8:27 pm
well, that prediction worked out well…