October 25, 2008 – VIA AmericanThinker
Signs Pointing To A McCain Victory
Despite there being an entire cottage industry devoted to exposing the liberal bias of the mainstream media, Republicans and conservatives continue to allow themselves to be unduly influenced, and even demoralized, by what they read and hear in the big city newspapers and on network television.
What are they reading and hearing? That Barack Obama will be the next President of the United States. It’s inevitable. It’s his election to lose. What proof does the media offer? Public opinion polls that supposedly show Obama “winning” the race. (But see here and here.) The thousands of devoted supporters who attend Obama’s rallies. The legions of blacks and young people who are more “inspired” than ever to vote for a candidate who understands their needs and interests. Etc. We all know the story by heart by now.
This is the “narrative” that the mainstream media has been imposing on this year’s presidential campaign almost from the start. Remember how quickly the MSM jumped off the Hillary Clinton bandwagon and onto Obama’s? Remember how annoyed and angry they became as Hillary refused to concede the nomination? The MSM decided that electing the nation’s first black, socialist, anti-American president was politically and historically more important (and, for them, more exciting) than electing the nation’s first female, socialist, patriotic president. And they are doing everything they can to achieve this goal.
Well, there is another story out there that the MSM refuses to address. A huge story. One that could, and I think will, significantly affect the outcome of this race. I’m referring to the widespread phenomenon of registered Democrats openly supporting John McCain. There are numerous “Democrats for McCain” type organizations. There are numerous websites and blogs written by Democrats touting McCain’s candidacy. There are pro-McCain grassroots efforts being led by Democrats. And we all know friends or relatives who are Democrats, who voted for John Kerry in 2004, and who are no fans of President Bush – but who are going to vote for John McCain this year.
Yet, surprise surprise, the mainstream media is not talking about these voters, not talking about the real rift that is occurring within the ranks of the Democratic Party. Needless to say, if a similar rift were occurring in the Republican Party, it would be treated as the major story that it is. (Indeed, as such stories about the political fault lines in the Republican Party have been treated in the recent past.)
Who are these pro-McCain Democratic voters? They overwhelmingly tend to be former Hillary supporters. Perhaps the most well-known of these voters are the “PUMAs” – which stands for Party Unity My Ass. These are Hillary supporters who are adamantly opposed to Obama. Let’s not forget that during the Democratic primaries – real elections, not polls – Hillary crushed Obama among white working-class and middle-class voters in such key states as Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. If a meaningful number of these voters end up voting for McCain, as I predict they will, then Obama’s smooth road to the White House is going to run smack into a brick wall.
Earlier this week, I attended a John McCain campaign event in New York City. There were several Democrats in attendance. Not only people who are registered Democrats, but party leaders and workers who had been actively involved in Hillary Clinton’s campaign. Indeed, the gentlemen who “keynoted” the event was a former publisher of the left-wing Village Voice magazine and a veteran of the Robert Kennedy, George McGovern, and Jimmy Carter campaigns. Hardly a right-wing conservative. He gave one of the best stump speeches I have heard why Barack Obama should not be elected president. (It comes down to not trusting Obama to keep the United States safe and strong in a dangerous world and rejecting Obama’s “government knows best” attitude when it comes to domestic issues.) Another person I met at the event was a sprightly elderly woman who manned telephones for Hillary for five months, and now is supporting McCain.
There is nothing remotely similar to this taking place among Republicans. (No, Christopher Buckley endorsing Obama is not the same thing at all.)
Some more anecdotal evidence of a lack of support for Obama among Democrats: I live in the Upper West Side neighborhood of New York City. You cannot find too many places in the country that are more liberal than that. Walking around my neighborhood during the 2004 presidential campaign, I felt “assaulted” on all sides by Kerry-Edwards buttons, bumper stickers, and posters. This year, there clearly is not the same level of outward support for Obama. It is remarkable (and welcome). Will most of the people in my neighborhood vote for Obama on election day? Of course. Will Obama win New York? Almost certainly. But the lack of enthusiasm for Obama among these Democrats, who I’m sure would be going gaga for Hillary, speaks volumes about Obama’s true prospects for victory this year.
The point is simple: Don’t believe the Obama hype coming out of the mainstream media. If the media were truly objective and unbiased, they would be covering the race much differently. Instead of trying to browbeat the country into voting for Obama, they would be analyzing the issues and factors that favor and disfavor both candidates. Instead of focusing on college students and intellectuals, they would be focusing on working-class and middle-class voters, especially “Hillary Democrats.” These voters may very well determine the election. Yet this huge story is being ignored by the MSM.
Furthermore, the media would not so consistently confuse intensity of support for breadth of support. Granted, Barack Obama’s supporters tend to be more enthusiastic about their candidate than John McCain’s supporters are about him. Leftists are always looking for their earthly messiah. But this does not mean that Obama’s supporters, come election day, will outnumber McCain’s. Whether in support of McCain or in opposition to Obama, I predict these voters will go to the polls. Contrary to the wishful thinking of Democratic pundits, they are not staying home. These voters may be unexcited, but they are not apathetic. And 51% of “unexcited” voters will defeat 49% of even the most “inspired” voters. Every time.
Of course, we all know what the mainstream media’s “narrative” will be if (I believe, when) John McCain wins the election: The American people refused to vote for Obama because of the color of his skin (and not because of the content of his politics). The “right-wing attack machine” scared voters into voting for McCain, even against their own social and economic self-interest. Black and poor voters were intimidated by Republican thugs and prevented from voting. We know this story by heart as well.
So be prepared. In a few more weeks, the political environment in this country is likely to become a heckuva lot nastier. For there are real signs pointing to a McCain victory this year, whether or not the mainstream media wants to acknowledge them.
October 25, 2008 at 1:47 pm
I am NOT pessimistic!
You GO! You are doing a great job!
Buy stock in pharmaceuticals! The left will become deranged and need meds!
October 25, 2008 at 1:55 pm
Let’s roll…
October 25, 2008 at 2:15 pm
You know, McCain may turn out to be a Democratic president. (Judging by his Big Money support and his endorsement by Republican ship-jumpers, Obama might well be a Republican president.) His party hates him, and he opportunistically reversed many of his positions from 2000 — evidence of his current insincerity — so who would be left for him to work with except Democrats? (John, please don’t bait Russia!)
Trying to be an optimist.
October 25, 2008 at 2:27 pm
Is “Hillary’s Army” a reference to “Dumbledore’s Army” in the Harry Potter series? Because if it is, I am prouder to belong to it than ever! Hillary and Harry are my two greatest loves!
For anyone who has read/seen “Order of the Phoenix”:
Harry/Hermione/McGonagall = Hillary (she has harry’s courage, hermione’s knowledge, and mcgonagall’s dignity)
Dumbledore/Ron = Bill (with dumbledore’s wisdom and ron’s humor)
Order of the Phoenix/Dumbledore’s Army = PUMAs, Democrats for McCain, Hillbuzz
Voldemort = Obama
Bellatrix Lestrange = Michelle
Death Eaters = Obamabots
Rita Skeeter/Daily Prophet = MSM
Cornelius Fudge = Howard Dean
Dolores Umbridge = Donna Brazile
October 25, 2008 at 2:37 pm
Go to the article directly on American Thinker and read all the comments. Truly inspiring!!
October 25, 2008 at 2:51 pm
Umm, the UWS is full of annoying people with Obama buttons who feel they are God’s gift to the world.
I will say that in the past week or so I have felt like the suffocating embrace of the Obama cult here has softened.
I don’t know why-but I feel like the Dark Lord’s hold is weakening. Maybe all the upcoming Halloween Masks are scaring him away.
October 25, 2008 at 3:59 pm
Thank goodness for this website. I come here frequently to get encouragement in the battle for America. I do get discouraged – due to the hopefully soon-to-be FORMER MSM. Make sure anyone who has stock in either NYT or GE (MSNBC) sells it immediately and take the suggestion that we buy pharms as well as Budweiser and other liqour firms. We’ll make a mint!!
October 25, 2008 at 5:39 pm
And then there’s: “Mark my words, it will not be six months before the world tests Barack Obama like they did John Kennedy [I was alive then--eek!]. The world is looking. We are about to elect a brilliant [throwing up in mouth] 47-year-old president of the United States of America. Remember I said it standing here, if you don’t remember anything else I said. Watch, we’re going to have an international crisis, a generated crisis, to test the mettle of this guy.” –Joe “Double-Dip” Biden, October 19, 2008, Seattle Fundraiser
October 25, 2008 at 6:09 pm
Actually, there appears to be a simple methodical error in the polls, and we can actually quantify it and adjust for it. This error is the hang-up rate, i.e. people who refuse to participate in the polls. It is far higher this election than previously. This makes sense, after all, what do you do when you get junk phone calls? You tell them to pi$$ off and hang up. Now suppose, instead, it’s a pollster, and you decide to participate. But then they tell you that they have 100 questions, and will you take 45 minutes to participate — NOW, will you tell them to pi$$ off? Don’t laugh, some of these polls are as bad as that. Specifically, the CBS/NYT poll asks 100 questions, and they consistently show a 12%-13% lead for Obama. It’s pretty clear that they are measuring only those people who are willing to answer 100 questions.
If you look at other polls, the trend is plain — those polls which ask the fewest questions show the best results for McCain. So this is the systematic bias in today’s polls — they don’t count people who won’t particiate, and those people are overwhelmingly McCain voters.
So, why has Obama’s lead been increasing lately? Simply because people are losing their patience with the left-wing biased media, and are hanging up at an increased rate as the campaign progresses. And that’s all it is, the hang-up rate, and not a swing to Obama at all. Simple, eh?
Lastly, we can remove this bias by treating the hang-up rate as a certain percentage McCain vote, and seeing what hypothetical percentage yields consistency between the polls, if you add them in. My rough rule of thumb calculation shows 80% McCain, and does not include the “excess”, that is, those voters who just hang up right away, regardless of how many questions the pollsters want to ask.
This all makes sense, as with all the junk phone calls we get, people don’t have the patience for telephone-led processes like they used to any more. It’s like the old famous Willkie phone poll, which showed only how a systematic bias controlled the result, well, today’s sytematic bias is the vastly greater hang-up rate, which are McCain voters overwhelmingly. Look for a decisive McCain win on November 4.
October 25, 2008 at 6:28 pm
We need to get out all the Mac/ Palin voters we can…here in NH there are tons of signs in yards, and I wrote my PUMA letter to the paper yesterday..
Make your voice and your vote count.
October 25, 2008 at 7:07 pm
DEATH THREATS SENT TO POLLSTERS WHO DON’T LISTEN TO OBANAZI
http://tiny.cc/9DZLo
October 25, 2008 at 7:14 pm
i have a feeling that the MacDemocrats will be the decisive voter population in nov… many of the 18 million votes that went to Hillary will not be transferring to obama. a fact that the msm is staying very far away from as they report manipulated pol data, and schill for the Precious. how do they sleep at night?
i am among the former dems who watched much of the dem party fall to the obamacan coup, as the dem primary leadership became one of the most dishonest, corrupt, misogynist, bigoted, and classist gang of thieves that i have ever witnessed.
and the mind controlled obamacans rides the Big Brother kool-aid wave.
i have some friends and family who still think he’s the ‘one’. of course they watch msnbc and cnn, so what else could i expect.
i no longer demonize republicans or the republican party. just observe as all the ‘climber’ repubs jump ship to the obamacan boat, as the many ex dems vote republican ticket for the first time in their lives in a valorous attempt to rescue Democracy…or what remains of it
these are amazing times we live in.
as i watch myself mutate into a wide open mind, questioning all that i once blindly accepted.though a bit on the surreal side, it’s really turned into a fascinating journey.
remaining politically naive is just not an option for me anymore.i am learning to discern truth, and to think critically. frankly, i amaze myself… this is a good thing.
Mac/Palin 08!
October 25, 2008 at 7:39 pm
American Thinker is my second favorite site next to Hillbuzz!
October 25, 2008 at 8:45 pm
one of the biggest reasons i think McCain willwin, the media tries to act like there’s no such thing as PUMAs yet i find them everywhere, and this can lead to a freaking landslide
October 25, 2008 at 8:46 pm
If Americans don’t overcome their racist views by voting Obama but choose two idiots instead, the world will laugh. I think that after Bush, we deserve a smart man for a change.
October 25, 2008 at 9:31 pm
John, lets see, the Terrorists strike on 9/11 to test the US. US fights for the lives lost on “the enemies” soil. Bush has kept this country from attack for 7 years. The Dems in Congress are responsible for the Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae collapse.. Bush is now having to help come up with solutions to stablize this economy. The welfare program of giving loans to those who could not afford.. have bankrupted this country… Just what we need are more big government social programs to get us back on track – are you kidding! You need to do some research and start thinking on your own. Those watching FOX and listening to talk radio are the most informed group of people in the US.
Just what we want – Joe Biden, “mark my words….”, our young men/womens lives lost on foreign soil due to the ineptness of this man “Obama”.
October 25, 2008 at 11:04 pm
John, heaven save us from the smart men who think that they can run our lives.
October 25, 2008 at 11:18 pm
bumble – if UWSers seem to be less suffocating this last week or so, I wonder if it’s because they think the election’s sewn up? I can’t imagine Obama’s support there could be softening.
gmanedit – I think it’s to McCaim’s credit that there are people in both parties who dislike him. To me, that proves he’s a centrist. With moderate Dems and Reps working and voting together, we are essentially a new (and the only viable) party.
Christopher Buckley and his ilk are elitists — it’s no wonder Obama’s their candidate.
October 26, 2008 at 12:41 am
John,
Oh sure… Obama and Biden…they are a couple of real Einsteins.
October 26, 2008 at 2:04 pm
Hi – read this site consistently, but have never commented before. I did want to leave this personal observation/story. I live in Seattle, WA – one of the most liberal areas of the country outside of SF and Manhattan. I am a lifelong, registered democrat. I voted for Clinton in the WA caucuses and primaries. In my neighborhood and on the way to work, I see many houses/cars with Obama/Biden signs, and few McCain/Palin. But, I think one of the secret and big stories here is that McCain will do much better than expected in WA state and may even win it.
I just voted (we can vote early by mail here) and I voted, proudly, for McCain/Palin. I’ve never voted for a Republican for any office, ever, before. I am a pretty strong-willed person, but I have to tell you that I CANNOT admit in public here in Seattle that not only do I not support Obama, but that I voted for McCain. At work and among (certain) friends, it is EXPECTED that I not only voted for Obama, but enthusiastically worship him as much as they do. However, I’ve encountered a few people who will dance around the topic to feel me out and then whisper, as if we’ll be sent away to gulag if anyone finds out – that they support McCain. That is the atmosphere in which all this polling is occuring. I would never tell a pollster who I really support. In fact, I would not submit to a poll – they have my phone number after all – and can find out where I live. (I know that sounds paranoid, but I think that’s the reality we face)
People here who do supprt McCain can’t say it in public; they are afraid to put signs or bumperstickers out. They are afraid to admit it at work because they might lose their job or be harrassed. But, oh boy – are they planning to vote!! And, the rest of WA state is pretty conservative – so I do not believe that Obama has a lock on this state at all.
Just one other little item – I am an AOL user and I vote in their straw polls every week. I actually think it’s pretty interesting. They get upwards of 100,000 real people voting every week and they restrict the voting, so you can only vote once per week per AOL account – very little chance for voters to game the system. When they’ve done these polls in the past – the results have usually been skewed v. liberal and anti-republican – for example: Clinton, the best president ever (I agree) – Bush the worst president ever (I also agree), by large amounts.
This poll has ever increasingly given McCain the win by HUGE amounts. McCain wins every state except NY, IL and Hawaii by this week’s poll. I know this isn’t “scientific,” but frankly – I trust this poll more than any NBC news poll. It shows people who will take the time and be proactive about voting – they are likely to vote for real. And, it allows people to truly give their opinion anonymously – not to some pollster with skewed questions on the phone.
October 26, 2008 at 5:00 pm
Interesting notes in the (terrible) Houston Chronicle yesterday… Big headline was “Harris County [Houston], could possibly go Democratic. First time since LBJ” They had early voting demographics… For obama -> 93% were Black, 73% voters salaried under $25K, 79% of voters NOT graduated high school…..
Gee… what does that tell ya?!!!
October 27, 2008 at 1:40 pm
Did someone up there play the race card again? Again?? How many time do I need to say that the more you bring race into this, the more I am inclined to not vote for The Fraud? I might just try extra hard today to change a Kool-Aid relative today.