Hey Eeyores, a little history lesson for you — because we live in the most amnesiac country on the face of the planet, apparently — stepping into the Wayback Machine, 16 days before the 2004 Election, remembering the media’s cheerleading for Kerry:
| Poll suggests Kerry has lead in swing states Last Updated: Sunday, October 17, 2004 | 9:15 PM ET John Kerry appealed to African-American voters on Sunday, as he pushed ahead with his campaign to unseat George W. Bush. Kerry promised the voters, many of whom feel the Republicans are trying to keep them off the voter lists, “We’re not going to let this be just a repeat of 2000. We’re not going to see a million African-Americans deprived of their votes in America,” he said. With just 16 days to go until the vote, the race couldn’t be tighter. Polls suggest a dead heat. Even Republican organizers concede the Democratic senator has benefited from his performance in the three presidential debates. And a Washington Post poll shows Kerry with a significant lead in important states that could decide the outcome of the election. The poll found Kerry held a 53 per cent to 43 per cent lead among likely voters in 13 such states. While Kerry was campaigning in two of those states on Sunday – Ohio and Florida – Bush took the day off, choosing instead to concentrate on a major speech on terrorism he is scheduled to deliver in New Jersey on Monday. Analysts say it is the handful of crucial swing states, like Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida that will be most important on Nov. 2. Those states will be heavily targeted by both campaigns in the closing weeks of the race. |
October 18, 2008 at 5:40 pm
This will lift your spirit, don’t you just
love it!
http://patriotroom.com/?p=3113
October 18, 2008 at 6:02 pm
Yes please don’t give up and crawl into a hole. The polls are skewed towards democrats. This is the most ridiculous case of Group Think I have ever seen. McCain and Palin are going to surprise everyone. It will be so sweet to wake up on November 5th to the headlines. McCain Wins! It will be amazing! I am thinking Champagne Cocktails. Champaign, sugar cube, bitters. Followed by tropical fruit and eggs benedict. Anyone else planning a hearty breakfast to break the fast of brain damage from this election?
October 18, 2008 at 6:09 pm
I was just thinking of looking this sort of thing up. Thanks for saving me the effort.
October 18, 2008 at 6:09 pm
LOL, I remember that SO well! Kerry just COULD NOT lose! When I start to feel a little down with the constant yap yap BS from them msm (when I am not able to avoid the msm), I always think of how Kerry was going to WIN by a landslide that election eve!
October 18, 2008 at 6:34 pm
The problem is that Bush was ahead in many national polls at this time, while McCain isn’t even ahead in a single one.
Every single poll can’t be wrong, imo.
October 18, 2008 at 7:12 pm
Rebecca, I have actually heard people admit they lied to the pollsters.
Most hard core conservatives wont even pick the phone up or refuse to be polled.
Every caller who was polled told the radio show host I was listening to said the questions were biased in favor of Obama.
A couple were so upset of the way they were being polled hung up on them.
All it would take is a few pollsters to screw up the polls.
I just cant see how a normal person would be able to pull that lever for Obama. I think the majority of us is smarter then that.
October 18, 2008 at 7:37 pm
LOL! I love that.
Soetoro doesn’t seem too pleased in that snapshot with Senator Ketchup, does he? Maybe he knows that he’s doomed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory just like Kerry.
October 18, 2008 at 8:13 pm
I’ve seen articles pop up about this a few times over the last few years. I don’t have any of the links, but I remember the gist–basically, if you look back over the last twenty some years of election polling, the polls are pretty accurate. BUT, what is accurate are the polls from the day before the election. These polls are often substantially different from the polls released in the weeks leading up to the election, and the more accurate polls are usually more pro-Republican.
You can pretty easily take this historical fact and construct a conspiracy theory around it, but I’m more inclined to believe that a lot of people just don’t make up their minds until the last minute, and they tend to break Republican for some reason.
October 18, 2008 at 8:54 pm
[...] —Ace Epilogue: Senator John Kerry remains Senator John Kerry. [...]
October 18, 2008 at 8:56 pm
Hard not to see what Rebecca is saying. Hope we’re not deluding ourselves.
It’s easy to get skeered because the thought of an Obama win is truly horrifying. Not an Eeyore, though!!Just sayin!
October 18, 2008 at 9:13 pm
I don’t worry so much about the polls except that they are used to discourage the conserative vote.
I do worry about the electoral college- it’s going to be tough for McCain.
October 18, 2008 at 9:34 pm
rebecca @#5: that would matter if national polls mattered. They don’t.
Even then, they have to juice ‘em pretty hard to get The One in the lead. Or hide it by tucking the “Likely Voter” tally toward the end, like Gallup.
October 18, 2008 at 9:36 pm
“Every single poll can’t be wrong, imo.”
I might have agreed with you before the all-out assault on Sarah Palin and Joe the Plumber. And the way the media transformed an ordinary campaign rally into a terrifying cross-burning, based on no evidence whatsoever. They didn’t need any, because it was about Republicans. And you know how THEY are.
I don’t trust their polls any more than I trust their reporting. I am not taking it on faith.
Anyway, Hillbuzz, thanks for saying this. For weeks now I’ve been like… Doesn’t anybody remember ‘04? On Election Day, I honestly thought Kerry had won. That’s what they were all saying, touting the polls, because that’s what they all wanted to be true.
This guy is not acting like a frontrunner. If he was, he wouldn’t need to go after a plumber from Ohio. And now they’re actually bragging that Obama is “winning the race for newspaper endorsements.” Yeah, I was thinking about voting for McCain, but now I’m not going to because of a bunch of NEWSPAPERS.
October 18, 2008 at 10:05 pm
No way that McCain is going to win this one.
The guy has shanked three of three debates… I just don’t see how his momentum will shift.
He’s got less money. He’s a GOP candidate running on the heels of Bush. The central issue in the campaign is the economy. And he changes his mind about his “message” weekly. McCain even acts resigned (notice, he no longer leads his campaign anymore… it is run for him by immoral stooges like Tucker Bounds).
Bush was able to control the media narrative in 2004 and his campaign. He could keep the focus of the election on 9/11. He was running against John Kerry… who was the weakest of the Democratic candidates. AND the media was still willing to give Bush the benefit of the doubt.
Plus, Bush was ahead in the national polls by this time.
October 18, 2008 at 11:55 pm
This election is different. People have finally had enough of the lies, smears and hate politics. People want to our leaders to come together and get things done. Senator Kerry had a major battle trying to calm the fears of the American public and gain their trust. The Iraq War still had the support of the majority of the American people and Bush was still trusted of foreign policy matters.
Senator Obama has had the advantage of running in a Democratic year and at a time when domestic issues have the attention of the American public. Thing are bad hear at home and the public trusts Democrats on domestic issues.
Obama is going to win- period. He is better funded, has a well run campaign and he is the someone new people are looking for.
Get use to it- you are going to be hearing a lot about President Obama in the years to come.
October 19, 2008 at 1:06 am
Rebecca,
Every poll was wrong in the PRIMARIES in NH, Pa, CALIFORNIA, and other states.
Zogby polls by e-mail, which favors Obama. Others use a phone/cell mix. Either way, the negative stigma of not saying you’re voting for the “historic” candidate, is something most people just won’t tell a stranger.
October 19, 2008 at 1:51 am
Obamanot MAWC wrote “This election is different. People have finally had enough of the lies, smears and hate politics. People want to our leaders to come together and get things done.”
DUH..thats why we’ll be voting for McCain. NOT Obama.
MAWC is one of the hundreds of Obama minions paid to get into peoples faces with Obama propaganda.
Pay no attention to MAWC.
October 19, 2008 at 4:38 am
#14 #15
You sound like astroturfers.
October 19, 2008 at 7:39 am
linus, what planet were you on in 2004? Bush was able to control the media? The media has hated President Bush since 2000, because they think he stole the election from their darling, Gore. He could keep the focus on 9/11? Bush was pilloried anytime he brought of 9/11. He was accused of using a national tragedy for political purposes. The media was still willing to give Bush the benefit of the doubt? What? The MSM has never given the President the benefit of the doubt; not even from day one in 2000. As I said before, what planet were you on in 2004?
October 19, 2008 at 8:36 am
Regarding the polls, it’s been hashed out before, but here goes.
How was the question worded.
What was the sample size.
What was the party weighting. The polls over estimate Dems and undersample Repubs.
Cell phones/land lines. Who’s answering.
Young voters/older voters. Old people vote more than young ones.
Hang ups/don’t answer when the pollster calls.
What time of day was the polling done.
The PUMA factor. Anywhere from 10%-40% of Hillary supporters going for McCain.
The Bradley Effect.
Get in people’s faces. A woman who supported McCain was attacked by an Obama supporter in NYC. Pro McCain signs vandalized. This makes people keep quiet about who they support.
Joe the Plumber. Attacking a working stiff is dumb politics.
ACORN.
The MSM in the tank for Obama.
There are others, but these are the sort of factors that can skew polls, and make them inaccurate. How will it turn out? Beats me. I’m for McCain, so I hope the polls are wrong. I’m just saying that polls have been inaccurate before. Their methodology can be flawed.
October 19, 2008 at 9:21 am
Folks, I know it’s not discussed in polite company, but the Bradley effect is real. I remember very clearly in Nov 1982 how all the polls had Democratic LA Mayor Tom Bradley up by 10 points over Republican Attorney General George Deukmejian for California Governor. After the polls closed, the LA CBS-affilate and all-news station projected Tom Bradley the winner based on exit polls. After the votes were counted, Deukmajian won by 1.2%.
People were lying to the polsters. Not because the were racist, but because the didn’t want to admit to the polsters that they were not voting for a Black candidate. They weren’t racist, but they didn’t want the polster (a stranger they would never see or talk to again) to assume that they were racist. That is the Bradley effect.
How do things compare today? If anything, the fear of being branded a racist is worse than ever. There is hardly a worse stigma in America than to be publically called a racist. And think about how this campaign has gone as described by the Obama’s allies and the media. Britney and Paris in an ad with Obama? Racist. An ad showing Obama in front of the victory Tower in Germany? Obviously, a phallic symbol, racist. Questioning Obama’s ties to Franklin Raines? Racist. Questioning Obama sitting in a Black seperatist church for 20 years? Racist. Questioning Obama’s ties to white American terrorist Bill Ayers? Racist. You get the idea. If you dare to question Obama’s elevation to thye Presidency, you must be motivated by racism.
Tom Bradley was no radical, but a former LAPD officer, a good, decent man and a mainstream Democrat with a long history of public service. Yet the voters of California, arguably some of the most open-minded in the country were still afraid to admit to polsters they wern’t going to vote for him. The voters didn’t want the “Los Angelesization” of the state but were afraid to tell that to a stranger. Can you imagine what it may be like in this political environment, where “everyone” is voting for the hip Barrack Obama?
The African-American commentator Juan Williams has said that Obama needs to be ahead by seven points in the polls to win. Williams is a liberal, but he is also a clear-eyed realist. I think the number is closer to five points, but there is no question that this is no ordinary election.
October 19, 2008 at 9:33 am
[...] remember feeling the sense of defeat this time four years ago. Here’s to hoping history repeats [...]
October 19, 2008 at 11:14 am
This is for Dangergirl,
I do not get paid to promote anyone. I am flattered that you would think so though. Actually, while I support Senator Obama, I was and will always remain a Kerry fan. I call things as I see them. In two weeks we will have a new president-thank God- and that president will be Senator Obama.
October 19, 2008 at 11:45 am
“MAWC Says:
October 19, 2008 at 11:14 am
This is for Dangergirl,
I do not get paid to promote anyone.”
I can see why.
“Actually, while I support Senator Obama, I was and will always remain a Kerry fan.”
And remember, Benedict Arnold was a war hero, too.
” I call things as I see them. In two weeks we will have a new president-thank God-”
What, no Bushco coup de e’tat conspracy theories?
“and that president will be Senator Obama.”
And you know what? I am beginning to feel that that won’t be true. Thank God.
“Obama’s lead slips to 3 points”
http://lucianne.com/threads2.asp?artnum=431091
October 19, 2008 at 12:05 pm
in this political environment, where “everyone” is voting for the hip Barrack Obama?
I don’t want my president to be ‘hip.’ I think most people do not want their president to be hip.
Anyone who wants the POTUS to be hip is either a naif or an a-hole, IMO.
This is a dangerous world, it has always been this way, and I’d prefer to be led by a serious, stodgy old coot who wears lame-o orthopedic shoes, thinks Putin is a commie punk, and cares very deeply whether or not my family is incinerated in their beds simply because we are Americans.
Obama is ‘hip’ because he hangs out with people who cheered when fellow Americans were incinerated during their workday. That’s so cool, you see.
That’s the cool crowd. Screw them.
I’d rather be totally lame and RIGHT, than cool yet effing useless to the people who need me.
(But I am cool. Well, I’m not that much of a dork, I swear, OK just a little around the edges…)
October 19, 2008 at 4:46 pm
[...] Hillbuzz dug out this little gem. Sound familiar? Poll suggests Kerry has lead in swing states [...]
October 19, 2008 at 5:13 pm
This is a great article.
It brought me back to 2004. I was absolutely convinced that Kerry would win. All the “scientific data” pointed to it. The debates, the polls (on election day for chrissakes!!) all but crowned Kerry.
But the voters thought otherwise.
Say Hello to President McCain in 2008!
and President Hillary Clinton in 2012!
October 19, 2008 at 9:02 pm
Hillary Clinton has said herself, she will not run again for president. The time to run was when the flower was in bloom- the bloom is now gone.
The hate at this site in support of a 2012 run for Clinton is shocking. Some of you would rather see McCain and Palin win and continue taking this country down a path of ruin just so Clinton will run again in 2012. How distructive and childish.
October 19, 2008 at 10:42 pm
I always lie to pollsters and even product questioners. In both cases they are testing the marketing and NOT the product.
Some days I’m a teacher or a university professor. Other times I’m a garbage collector. Now I’m often a plumber. Wait – perhaps a plumber of African decent would be even better though not fully as I have a German surname. I love to mess with their heads.
So do answer those phone calls and feed them a line. It’s great fun! If nothing else, perhaps we can destroy the credibility of pollsters and the whole idea of marketing a candidate.
Just compare the John McCain of the Al Smith dinner with the John McCain we see campaigning.
Bob Dole was the best example. Within months after losing, he goes on David Letterman and has them rolling in the aisles. That Bob Dole could have won the election.
October 20, 2008 at 7:55 am
“The hate at this site in support of a 2012 run for Clinton is shocking.”
MAWC, sweetie, time to put down the crack pipe, baby.
Ain’t no ‘hate’ here, and you know it. The mere fact that this post doesn’t resonate with you personally doesn’t make it ‘hate’. Interesting, though, that you instantly choose to go head-first down the ‘hate’ path because you have nothing relevant to say.
“Distructive[sic] and childish”? Indeed you are.
October 20, 2008 at 11:48 am
I trust polls to a some extent if it were conducted in a fair and impartial manner like the way we (students) used to conduct polls in my college on issues affecting the college. Those polls were correct all the time. But I dont trust the main stream media anymore after their biased reporting. All polls show Obama leading. Give me a break. On Feb 05, Obama was supposed to win California according to the polls. It was Hillary that won CA by 10 points that day. In a diverse country like America, its diffcicult for polls to be accurate.
October 29, 2008 at 11:43 am
Omigod you people are nuts. Take a quick look at almost every poll taken before the 2004 election and it showed Bush leading by anywhere from 2 to 4 points, and leading relatively comfortably in key battleground states like Florida, Ohio, etc.
Don’t forget, one of the keys to control for any fascist state is to demonize the media. You’re doing a remarkably good job at it!