Just to give you all some perspective on things. We know the MSM is pushing hard for SoetorObama — harder than we have ever seen the MSM push for anyone. Just remember the polls they are showing oversample Democrats, undersample Republicans and Independents, oversample urban areas and black voters, and don’t include “undecideds”, which amount to around 10% in all these polls. Undecideds broke for Clinton in similar circumstances at the rate of 4:1…meaning McCain gets another 8-10% in each poll, when these factors are equaled.
The same thing happened in 2004, with the MSM trumpeting Kerry leads…right up until Election Day.
Kerry takes lead in new opinion poll
Washington
October 8, 2004 – 5:29PM
Democrat John Kerry has taken a slight lead over US President George W Bush, according to a new opinion poll. The survey by the Associated Press found that Kerry had gained ground with women, boosting his overall popularity and cutting into the president’s advantage on national security.
The two candidates remain in a very close race ahead of a second debate tomorrow in St. Louis.
Among 944 likely voters, the Democratic ticket of Kerry and John Edwards led Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney, 50 per cent to 46 per cent, in the poll conducted for the AP by Ipsos-Public Affairs.
The October 4-6 survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. The race was tied at 47 per cent among the 1,273 registered voters in the poll, similar to others showing a tight race.
October 1, 2008 at 11:13 pm
It’s weird how much things have changed in 4 years. In 2004 I would have lapped this right up and declared a Kerry/Edwards victory inevitable…now I’m talking about the shameful biases of the liberal media elite.
So, in a way, I’m thankful to SoetorObama – he’s awakened me from the blind loyalty I had for the Democratic Party (not including Hillary).
OH…by the way, Hillbuzz, can you PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE write an article about why Hillary will win 2012? I have a hard time convinving my friends of this…
October 1, 2008 at 11:50 pm
please write about Bradley Effect. Will it work against Uhahbama or not?
October 2, 2008 at 3:38 am
Polls shmolls. These tracking surveys are conducted by eggheads, often at academic institutions, who have a genetic predisposition to salivate when they hear the name Obama. When we know the media is so corrupt in their bias, why would we be more trusting of pollsters. I work with these people often and I have never come across any study I would call “true” research.
Also, being slightly behind on election day will boost turnout for the underdog. Given all the factors that Hillbuzz has itemized relating to voting dynamics (which only favor Barry in perception), if Gallup says Barry is ahead by 6 pts on election eve, I read that as an electoral dead heat.
October 8, 2008 at 6:06 pm
You poor poor things still havent gotten over the fact that HRC will NEVER be president.
Maybe president HUSSIEN ;-) will give her a position in the cabinet? That’[s as close as she’ll ever get to the White House whether “O” wins or loses.
October 10, 2008 at 7:21 pm
Wow, you guys are scary!
Still holding a grudge? A grudge that will not let you do what is best for our country and the world?
November 4, 2008 at 7:08 pm
[...] have occasional power rankings or polls from experts to keep us abreast of who’s doing well. These will often be wrong and will always mean absolutely nothing, but we’ll still treat them as if they’re the [...]