HillBuzz saw this analysis in a post on HillaryClintonForum.net. We don’t know its author, but think this makes a strong mathematical argument that an Obama nomination spells defeat for Democrats in the fall.
There are key points that the Democratic pundits commenting on outcomes fail to mention. The people who are trying to railroad Clinton out of the race for the nomination are sabotaging Democratic chances in the Fall.
Today, they say an embittered 19% of Obama’s supporters won’t vote for Clinton if she is nominated, while an embittered 28% of Clinton supporters won’t vote for Obama if he is nominated. They also say that Clinton supporters indicate a willingness to vote for McCain over Obama. But what does that mean in terms of impact on numbers this Fall, since Obama’s supporters are left-wingers and blacks who are unlikely to vote for McCain if they despise Clinton, but many Clinton supporters are centrists, and are quite able to vote for centrist McCain if they despise Obama?
Obama’s blacks among those comprising the 19% of those Obama supporters who wouldn’t vote for Clinton, won’t go out and vote Republican. This is also true for the left-wing ivory tower whites and college kids that comprise his white voter base. Assuming that Obama’s lefty voter blocs, including newly registered college kids don’t vote Dem this Fall, it’s extremely unlikely that they will vote Republican. Thus, the 19% of Obama’s base who won’t vote for Clinton, if they follow through, would just provide the Republicans with about an 8% margin since Obama is down under McCain with about 43% in current the national polling. Thus the damage those 19% of Obamat’s hardened Clinton-haters can do at most an 8% margin of damage, if they all follow through and sit out the election or vote for Nader.However, centrist Clinton’s 28% are far more likely to vote for centrist McCain instead of doing what Obama’s 19% are likely to do if they follow through and sit out the election.
That means the Dem party’s 28% drop will be then added to McCain’s column, thereby doubling the effect of Clinton defections. Let’s say 1/2 of Clinton’s 28% sit out the election as Obama’s 19% fanatics say they would do, and 1/2 vote for McCain, and that Clinton’s at about 46% below McCain in national matchup polling today. Clinton’s centrist supporters who vote for McCain would shift the margin to his favor by (.28/2)*(.46)X2 = 13%. Plus there are the other 14% who sit out: (.28/2)*.46 = 6.5%. There would be a 13% + 6.5% projected shift in the Dem v. Republican votes, or 19%.
Thus if we assume all of Obama’s left wing and black supporters would follow through with their threats to not vote for Clinton, it could impact the Fall election by a projected 8%. If only half of Clinton’s centrist supporters follow through with their threats not to vote for Obama and sit out the election while the other half votes for McCain, then we see a 19.5% shift in McCain’s favor.
That, my friends, is why you don’t bully, abuse and harass the party centrists. Fanatical party extremists who trash the centrists risk moving them toward the other party, whereas disappointing the party fanatical extremists just moves them out of the election. The outcomes of upsetting Clinton’s Dems has more weight in terms of downside risks than the weight of Obama’s Dems, in their impact in the general election if they are pissed off. I can tell you that if the Dems force Clinton out without the MI, FL delegates seated, I have little doubt Dems will lose more than 28% of her supporters, especially in the key states of MI, FL.The Dems have zero chance of winning with any meaningful margin of Clinton’s centrist supporters upset at Obama’s campaign or the Democratic Party’s treatment of her. If a group of Bill Richardson-aligned superdelegates get together on Memorial day and force her out without giving her a chance to try to seat the MI, FL delegates at the convention, her polarized Dems will be outraged.On the other hand, there is a reasonable shot at a win if Obama’s left-wing and black supporters sit out the general election!
