I really hope you hold accountable every conservative writer you see in the next few days freaking out over “Obama winning Ohio!” because this is ridiculously apocryphal; anyone who has ever lived in the buckeye state should know it is going to award its 18 electoral votes to Mitt Romney this year and it won’t even be close. Look for Romney’s win to be a 54% to 46% blowout for Republicans. That’s because Ohio is not a swing state this time around…since Obama’s deliberate push to the Left over the last four years has forced a pendulum correction shift that has now made Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, Oregon, and even New Jersey the real swing states (instead of the swing states being Indiana, Iowa, Virginia, and North Carolina like last time…when the political pendulum had swung wildly to the Left during the now-stale “Hopeychange” fad of 2008). There’s just no rational reason for anyone to be worried about a Republican losing Ohio if on the last weekend before a presidential election the states really up for grabs with a 50/50 shot of either side winning include MINNESOTA…and a possible (but not necessarily probable) pickup for Romney is actually New Jersey (which, after Hurricane Sandy and the ineptitude that Democrats have shown in handling rescue efforts there, is a true possibility…as crazy as that might at first seem). If you think of that pendulum swinging, it had to pass Ohio to reach the point where Wisconsin and Minnesota are in play (and would need to swing even deeper into Democrat territory to put states like Washington, Connecticut, and Delaware into “swing” category). I wish it was an absolute armageddon for Democrats and the pendulum had swung so far to the right that California and New York were on the table like they were back in 1984…but I doubt in our lifetimes we’ll ever again see a time when either party loses 49 or 50 states.
I do know, however, that 2012 is going to be the biggest win that Republicans have ever had in modern political history and that Mitt Romney will head to Washington next January with a bigger mandate than any conservative since Ronald Reagan. Romney will, in fact, win over 300 electoral votes and the night’s going to be called early because a lot of “surprise” wins are going to happen in the Midwest, making it clear Obama’s defeated pretty early in the evening on November 6th. If you’ve been paying attention to the plans the Obama campaign made for McCormick Place in Chicago you’ll already know they intend that event to be a Concession Speech and not a Victory Party (and they have known this to be the case for the last three months).
Barack Obama and the Left are going to suffer a massive loss on Tuesday and I am thrilled that my home state of Ohio is going to play a role in that…but I know Ohio’s going to be overshadowed by the euphoria that surrounds Republicans winning in truly unexpected places like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania..and possibly scoring a huge upset by taking the likes of Minnesota and New Jersey, too. Well, “unexpected” if you really haven’t been paying much attention and don’t know a whole lot about Ohio and Pennsylvania in particular. I was born and raised in Cleveland and lived in Pittsburgh for a while as well; though I’m based in Chicago now, I don’t think my home state and its neighbor have changed all that much since I’ve been gone…and friends still on the ground in these states tell me that their families and neighbors are very angry at Democrats for lying to them and making all sorts of promises on which they didn’t deliver.
The conservative writers I see pushing fear porn about Ohio seem to think that between 2008 and 2012 the buckeye state became a solid Leftist stronghold like California or New York, when there’s no evidence to believe that’s the slightest bit true. Anyone saying Obama even has a chance at winning Ohio this time around is either stupid (and shouldn’t be writing professionally) or knows that’s not true and is just doing it to scare you so your panic helps drive up web traffic (which means this person shouldn’t be writing professionally either, since he’s purposefully posting fear porn to score better ad sales with higher hits that day). I actually think it’s crazy to think Obama could win Ohio this year and hope that on November 6th when the results come in you’ll look back and remember who kept telling you to be so afraid…and then on November 7th you do something to call the fear porn mongers out on all this.
As a public service for those who don’t naturally know the mindset of people in Ohio and Pennsylvania, here are the Top Ten things that conservative writers and the fear porn mongers are getting wrong about these states:
10. The number one reason that Ohioans voted for Barack Obama in 2008 was because they wanted to believe in a magical black man who would solve all their problems, but in 2012 they’ve realized there is nothing magical or even competent about Obama.
This is something that is not “politically-correct” to talk about, so you will NEVER see a story like this in the Ministry of Truth that is our national media Conservative writers are also afraid to talk openly about this because they’re scared of being called racists for talking about the “magical black man” meme that’s been a part of Hollywood for decades now…where a mysterious and often strangely-named black man appears out of nowhere right when white folk need him most and he solves all of their problems if they’d only just believe in him. The actor Will Smith owes his entire career to this tripe, with roles in “The Legend of Bagger Vance”, “Independence Day”, “Men in Black”, “Hitch”, “I am Legend”, etc. constantly showcasing a “hip and cool” black man who pops out of nowhere to rescue desperate or frightened white people who also feel very good about themselves for agreeing to take help from a black man and trusting him with their problems.
This is the number one reason that Barack Obama won the 2008 election: because white people in Ohio, in particular, wanted to be rescued from their troubles like in a Will Smith movie and Minitru sold Obama as the magical black man straight out of central casting who would do that.
As I’ll talk about a little later, Ohio has a longstanding tendency of believing in magic and big dreams to solve all its problems…but then course-correcting abruptly when the dream didn’t pan out. I think Will Smith movies are a good example of this too, because Ohioans will line up for the next Will Smith blockbuster…but won’t turn out for the sequel if they hear its a dud. No matter how delighted they were to sink their butts into theater seats to see Will Smith save white people from destruction one summer…if they catch word that nationwide people just aren’t feeling any love for a sequel, Ohioans will sit home and won’t feel any guilt about not giving Will Smith any more of their money.
Such is true for Barack Obama, the Will Smith of political candidates who stars in the 2012 stinker called “The Dismal Obama Reelection Effort that Ohioans Have No Interest In”.
9. Ohio is a conservative state that gives Democrats a chance (if they seem moderate) while Pennsylvania is a lefty state that will take a chance on a Republican (who seems non-threatening and capable).
Unlike Ohio, I think that Pennsylvania is a state that will vote Democrat unless Republicans either give Pennsylvanians a REALLY tempting option or Democrats screw things up so badly that people in Pennsylvania decided to punish them. In Ohio, I think voters like coming to the ballot box and taking their choices seriously…and I think they really do approach elections out of a hiring mindset, like they’d do with a new employee at work. If someone comes highly recommended — like Obama was pushed by Minitru in 2008 — I think Ohioans respond to that like their personal friends egging them to hire a mutual acquaintance that everyone thinks would be great. But, for a Democrat to win in Ohio that person has to pass an “interview” of sorts with voters and come across as moderate…or else he or she won’t get the job. Pennsylvanians feel this way about Republicans, and won’t elect someone from the GOP unless he or she comes off as a moderate version of someone from that party. So, I think it’s likelier that Ohio would elect a far-right Republican and Pennsylvania would elect a rabid Leftist Democrat than vice-versa; in this way, Ohio and Pennsylvania bookend one another.
2008 was a massive con job by Minitru because Obama was presented as a moderate Democrat that Pennsylvanians could love and Ohioans could deem suitable for “hiring”. Between 2008 and 2010, both Pennsylvanians and Ohioans save that Democrats deceived them in this…and both states set about firing as many Democrats as possible in punishment for that lie. Notice that both Ohio and Pennsylvania formerly had Democrat Governors, Secretaries of State, Attorneys General, etc. and in the 2010 midterm elections that was largely rectified and a great many Obama surrogates in those states lost their elected offices.
It is insane to believe that between 2010 and 2012 the people of Ohio and Pennsylvania decided they were wrong and that they were ready to believe all the old lies from 2008 again. If anything, people are even MORE angry at Democrats because the last two years have fully revealed just how far to the Left Obama truly is. This disqualifies him from “hiring” in Ohio…but Pennsylvanians don’t have a disqualification process like that and instead look to see if the Republican is acceptable. Mitt Romney is not from the south, is not a radical person, and is handsome and acceptable to Pennsylvanians who like their Republicans to be nonthreatening and business-like. So, we have a scenario where Obama won’t be rehired by Ohioans at the same time Romney is just the sort of Republican that Pennsylvanians would vote for.
I think this is why Romney wins both states. If Pennsylvania would ever vote Republican again in our lifetimes, it would be this year…and if it doesn’t, then it’s truly in the league of Illinois, California, and New York as states that won’t ever vote anything but Democrat again. I don’t think Pennsylvania is in the same group as Illinois, based on living in both states…so ultimately I have to say that since there could be no better year ever for a Republican to run for President then, yes, Romney will be given a chance by Pennsylvanian voters here in 2012.
8. Ohioans don’t send radical Leftists to Washington (otherwise you would have heard of more Ohio politicians). Why on Earth would they give Obama another term?
Quick. Name five famous Ohio Democrats who won prominent office.
Okay, name three.
How about one?
I bet if you are not from Ohio or a neighbor state you were stumped…and that’s because Ohio’s representatives on the national stage are never very memorable. During my lifetime, we’ve had guys like Howard Metzenbaum, John Glenn, George Voinovich, Mike DeWine, Rob Portman, Sherrod Brown, and (soon) Josh Mandel representing Ohio in the United States Senate. None of these people have ever set the world on fire, though many were (and are) nice guys on a personal level because Ohioans by and large are very nice people. I can’t remember a time when a Senator from Ohio was on anyone’s list of radicals…on either side of the political aisle. In all my years, I’ve never traveled anywhere that someone asked me where I was from and I said “Ohio” and they hit me back with “Boy, I just hate your Senator there”. People don’t even know who Ohio’s Senators are most of the time. I do, however, have a friend from Missouri and wherever she goes people say something nasty to her about how stupid Claire McCaskill is…and a friend of mine from New York can’t ever talk to anyone without hearing what a clown Chuck Schumer is. But I’m 35 years old and I’ve never traveled to another state where someone hear I was from Ohio and ever said to me, “I can’t stand your Governor or Senator or whatever”.
This is because Ohioans don’t elect people they perceive as extremists and they won’t cast ballots for anyone who is either a committed Leftist or someone on the far-right. That’s not Ohio’s style. Ohio is the state that never sends anyone particularly memorable to high office…and that’s because Ohio does not like being part of big drama.
Ohioans were told that Barack Obama was a moderate and they liked the whole hopeychange fad…but here in 2012 many feel duped and will course-correct in this election because Mitt Romney is very much the sort of competent and determined no-drama guy that the people of Ohio want in national office. Ohioans gave Obama a chance; he failed to live up to their expectations…and now he’ll be replaced with Mitt Romney. It’s really as simple as that.
7. Few people in Ohio really have a connection to anyone working in the auto industry and most realized the Unions killed GM, Ford, and the steel mills in Ohio in the 80s and 90s.
I grew up in Cleveland in the 80s and 90s right when the steel mills and automobile factories were shutting down because the Unions had made it impossible for companies to stay in business in the Cleveland area. So, I witnessed firsthand the implosion of all these manufacturing and auto jobs. This has been going on for 30 years now, and it’s ludicrous to me when I see conservative writers saying “Obama will win because of the auto bailout!”. When I was growing up, people were already perceiving the Unions as greedy parasites that destroyed jobs…and that auto plants and steel mills were going extinct in Ohio because of the Unions, which Democrats allowed to have too much power. Don’t believe the hype that Minitru pushed in 2010 that Ohioans loved the Unions because they rejected Governor Kasich’s reforms…since those only failed because Kasich stupidly included the police and firemen in the public sector reform measures. Ohioans love cops and firemen and will not vote against them, so any Union reforms need to preclude nice looking cops and firemen from standing in front of polling places crying “Please don’t let Republicans hurt me or take away the tools I need to do my jobs!”.
Minitru acts like Unions control Ohio, but they don’t. That would be true about Illinois, but not Ohio. While the Teamsters are still really big around Cleveland, and their thugs deliver votes for Democrats, even their power has been blunted by the steady loss of jobs in Cuyahoga County in the decades of one-party rule there. Ohio is not a solid Democrat-controlled state like Illinois because there is no major city like Chicago to keep Ohio in the Democrat column year after year; Chicago decides the fate of Illinois, but Ohio’s big cities combined do not have half the influence over Ohio that Chicago has over Illinois.
I think it’s a total fantasy on the part of Minitru to think that Ohioans want four more years of Barack Obama just because Minitru has been telling Ohioans that the auto unions love Obama. That’s just absurd.
6. Ohioans enjoy participating in fads and rolling the dice on big dreams, but when bubbles burst they get practical and have no qualms about firing someone who is not doing his job properly.
I’ve written about this nonstop since 2008, but Obama’s election really was a big national fad…like pet rocks, Cabbage Patch Kids, New Kids on the Block, Beanie Babies, Y2K hysteria, etc. Ohioans LOVE being part of fads because it shows they are hip and cool. People in the Midwest often feel put down by the national media as being “unhip”, so if there is an attractive bandwagon, then Ohioans will jump on it with gusto. Which is what happened in 2008.
But, Ohioans are practical people and put their Cabbage Patch dolls and beanie babies in the attic after they realize how ridiculous that stuff all was. That’s where all their Obama hopeychange paraphernalia is moldering right now: in the attic with the other discarded remnants of once white-hot fads.
I think Pennsylvanians are like this too, but are a little less likely to jump on bandwagons like Ohioans. Neither states have anyone who is more excited about voting for Obama in 2012 than they were in 2008…but all the polls looking at the Midwest claim that Obama’s more beloved than ever. And, yet, Mitt Romney’s drawing crowds of over 30,000 in the buckeye state while Obama’s getting only 2,500 people to show up.
I think anyone who says Obama can win Ohio when there is just no enthusiasm for him there is insane (or deliberately telling you Obama will win so you get freaked out and race around pushing that fear porn to drive web traffic to the offending site). There is just no basis in reality to believe Obama will win Ohio when Ohioans are so over the hopeychange fad.
5. If Ohio is really a swing state — meaning a state that is not an automatic vote for Democrats like New York, Illinois, or California — then there’s no chance it goes to Obama this year, when Independents are racing away from Democrats in droves.
This is more insanity: the belief that Obama wins “swing states” when Independents are running away from him like he’s the plague. Where is the logic in this?
Isn’t a swing state a place where neither Democrats nor Republicans control that state…and Independents cast the deciding votes by swinging from one party to the other from year to year? So, if THAT is true then let’s just follow this logically.
* Independents are breaking for Romney in a big way.
* Republicans are NOT voting for Obama like they did in 2008 (to feel good about themselves for electing a black man).
* Democrats who thought they were getting a moderate when they voted for Obama are severely disappointed in the last for years and either will sit home or will vote for Romney next Tuesday.
* There is no culture of a radical Left that’s pervasive in Ohio, so there are not many Obama cultists or true zealots in this state.
How on Earth does Obama win?
The latest fear porn is that “Democrats will steal Ohio through voter fraud!”. While I know voter fraud does exist in Ohio — and that Democrats are behind it — I can tell you that it’s absurd to think that Democrats have gotten better at voter fraud in Ohio from 2010 to 2012. Remember that in 2010 Ohio voters booted out most Democrats from statewide office and sent Rob Portman to the Senate. Ted Strickland, a moderate Democrat, was thrown from office because Ohioans were so angry over Obamacare. In fact, a ballot initiative declared that Ohio would not go along with any Obamacare mandate.
If you are someone who believes the fear porn and truly thinks Democrats are powerful enough in Ohio to use voter fraud to save Obama then you need to ask yourself a basic question: why on Earth didn’t they use that fraud magic back in 2010 to keep the Governor’s mansion, the Secretary of State position, the Attorney General, Congressional offices, and the Senate seat? Why didn’t Democrats use fraud to prevent the anti-Obamacare initiative from passing?
It makes no sense.
Without control of the Governor’s Mansion and the position of Secretary of State voter fraud is very hard to commit on a scale needed to tip an important election. Fraud CAN — and does — tip close elections…but there needs to be Democrats in control of the statewide offices to allow that to happen. Ohio has conservatives in all the positions that Democrats used to hold in the lead up to Obama’s election in 2008…and the positions that oversaw the 2010 elections. There is no way on Earth that Obama “steals” Ohio.
I am going to say this bluntly: anyone who claims that Democrats will steal Ohio through voter fraud are DELIBERATELY scaring you just to drive up their web traffic. There are a great many conservative writers who need the ad sales that fear porn generates…and it’s a classic, scary story to tell you that “Democrats are going to rig the Ohio elections!”. Do not believe this.
Democrats have no ability to do this on a statewide level any more. Governor Kasich will not allow them to do this. Attorney General Mike Dewine will not allow this. Secretary of State Jon Husted will not allow this. The fear porn mongers out there who claim these things know that until the election happens no one can prove them wrong definitively, so they lie to you and say you should be terrified of voter fraud “stealing the election in Ohio”.
I am going on record telling you that there is a greater chance of being killed in a great white shark attack in your bathroom on November 6th than of Democrats stealing Ohio’s election through voter fraud…and that any voter fraud that happens in Ohio will be so minimal that it will not impact the race due to the MASSIVE disparity in enthusiasm between Romney (who is drawing crowds of 30,000 in Ohio) and Obama (who can only muster 2,500 at events that often involve free concerts by big name stars).
Do not fall victim to gear porn!
4. Nothing happened between 2010 and 2012 to make Ohioans or Pennsylvanians trust Democrats again (let alone make them fall in love with them enough to give Obama a second term).
This is another exercise in logic for you. Try and think of anything that happened between 2010 and 2012 to make Ohioans and Pennsylvanians believe that Democrats really aren’t all that bad and that they should be trusted with the destiny of the country.
There’s not a damn thing.
3. This is still a center-right, Christian country despite what the Ministry of Truth would like you to believe and voters in Ohio and Pennsylvania don’t want to see the Left control America.
Another no-brainer, folks. But the interesting thing is that the Ministry of Truth that is the national media in this country is controlled 100% by the Left…so what you see on tee-vee and hear on the radio is what they WANT to happen to the country. These people live in a fantasy world and really do want to transform this country into a socialist paradise. Outside of the newsrooms and the offices of MSNBC…and outside the Eloi nests in the major urban centers…no one else wants America to become a “socialist paradise” and Americans are repulsed by the Left.
That’s why I tell you not to use the word “liberal” when talking about Democrats and why I don’t allow any comments calling Democrats “liberals” to ever post on this site. These people are Leftists and you should call them that (or “lefties”, depending on the sentence). Calling them “liberals” HELPS THEM…because it is what they WANT to be called. You are a damn fool if you keep doing this. Every time you use the word “liberal” to describe a Democrat you are writing a check for $5.00 in free advertising for these radicals because focus group testing has proved that people who don’t follow politics closely interpret the word “liberal” to be a good thing, because it sounds “open to new ideas” to them. In reality, Democrats are Leftists (or lefties) who seek to impose their will on others and aren’t open to anything besides their own agenda.
You are a damn fool to ever call these people “liberals” because you make them sound more appealing to others. If you use this word, KNOCK IT OFF TODAY.
I honestly think Democrats would never win another national election if conservatives would only eradicate usage of the word “liberal” and would instead call these people “lefties” or “Leftists”. After November 7th, I am going to make it my mission in life to get every conservative writer and pundit to eliminate usage of the word “liberal” so that Democrats get perceived as what they really are: Leftists.
I hope you stop using the word “liberal” yourself and chide anyone you see who still employs it: even if it’s a big name person like Rush Limbaugh or Ann Coulter, who both should know better.
2. If Pennsylvania is really a swing state, it has to vote Republican sometime…and these are the best conditions for that to happen ever.
Today is the first day that I’m going to say definitively that Romney will win Pennsylvania.
That’s a big deal for me, because Pennsylvania has been such a tease of a state for the longest time that I’ve called it the Zac Efron of states, named after the clearly gay actor who toys with the idea of coming out of the closet every once in a while (but always changes his mind and acquires a new Disney actress beard because his PR people told him to). One day, Zac will come out as a gay man (my boyfriend Justin and I saw him at the gay bar The Abbey when we were in L.A. last, and what Zac was doing ogling a go-go boy clearly indicates he’s gay) and Pennsylvania will have to vote Republican if it is really a swing state. Otherwise, you’d just have to declare Pennsylvania to be like California and New York and say they are states in which Republicans have no chance, ever.
There have never been more perfect conditions for Pennsylvania to “come out” as Republican. In recent years, Pennsylvania has elected a Republican governor and will elect a Republican Senator in this race. I don’t see anything about Mitt Romney that is unappealing to Pennsylvanians…he is the exact sort of Republican these voters like.
So, it comes down to this:
(A) Do I believe Pennsylvania is really a swing state that Republicans can win, ever? The answer is: YES.
(B) Do I believe that Mitt Romney is the best possible candidate Republicans could have run for president in Pennsylvania in the year 2012: YES.
(C) Do I believe that 2012 will be the best year for Republicans in a national election since Reagan in 1984? YES.
So, I have to go on the limb and say Romney wins Pennsylvania…as big of a shock as it is. It’s going to be like Zac Efron and Leonardo DiCaprio announcing on November 7th that they’re getting a civil union. It will be a shocker, but afterwards you’ll put it all together and realize that, YES, you should have seen it coming all along because all the signs were there.
Either Pennsylvania goes to Romney in 2012 or it was never and will never be a true swing state…and I just don’t think THAT is true so therefore I honestly believe Romney does the seemingly impossible and finally brings Pennsylvania over to the side of the good guys this year.
1. Ohioans like being on the winning side, and no president of either party has won election without winning Ohio…because Ohio always goes with the ultimate winner (and this seems to be really hard for pundits to wrap their head around, but it’s just a cultural thing with Ohioans in that they enjoy being “right” on election day and joining the victory party).
I’m going to conclude this list with the biggest peeve I have with a lot of conservative writers…and it’s that they are so damn lazy when it comes to Ohio’s voting history.
I see the line repeated a lot that “no Republican can win without Ohio” and think, “Yah, dummy…and no Democrat since 1960 won without Ohio either”.
What people miss is that Ohio is a state that votes the way they think the rest of the states will vote and goes where the energy is flowing. Ohioans enjoy attending victory parties on election nights because it makes them feel like big smarties for picking the “right guy”. Ohioans don’t want to be on the losing side of a presidential race ever again and enjoy casting their lot with the perceived winner. In 2008, that was Barack Obama and Ohioans enjoyed making history and helping to elect a black man to the presidency.
In 2012, however, Ohioans will feel good about being part of the firing of the first incompetent black man to ever be the President of the United States. They gave Obama a chance, but Ohioans see that nationally the country wants Obama out of office….and Ohio will help do that.
I honestly believe that Ohio doesn’t even need polling and that the state should just always be put in the column of whoever has the positive energy going into the campaign and is perceived to be the winner in terms of zeitgeist. Every election has a person like this…and this time that is Mitt Romney.
Ohio wil go to Romney and he’ll be our 45th President. In an election year when it sure looks like Wisconsin is going to vote Republican for the first time in ages, it’s absurd to think Ohio would even consider voting for Obama.
Anyone saying otherwise is just stupid, doesn’t know a thing about Ohio, or is only trying to freak you out so that you panic, revel in fear porn, and drive more web traffic to that person’s site to up their ad sales.
Do not fall for the fear porn!
© 2012, Kevin DuJan. All rights reserved.
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